8442 Halstead Rd · North Bay, NY 13308

$82,950

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,196 sqft · Manufactured public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1988 1.60 ac lot $69/sqft · 52% below area ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Ranch style home set on over 1.5 acres offering peaceful country living with a convenient location. The home features nearly 1,200 square feet of living space with three bedrooms and two full bathrooms, including a primary bedroom with its own private bath. The layout is spacious and functional, with plenty of opportunity to add your own updates and personal touches. Located just minutes from Camden and an easy drive to Sylvan Beach, making it a great option for those looking for space without being far from town.

Key facts

• Private bath
• Over 1.5 acres
• Convenient location

Tags

• OVER 1.5 ACRES
• PRIVATE BATH
• CONVENIENT LOCATION

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Underground parking; 1-car garage; Second (additional) garage
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story home; Existing/resale condition (listed as fixer)
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Poured foundation
• Exterior features: Gravel driveway; Rectangular lot (approximately 1.6 acres, 436 x 149); Main thoroughfare road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Appliances noted in remarks
• Bedrooms: 3 main-level bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Interior features: Separate/formal dining room; Separate/formal living room; Bedroom on main level; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $83k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $485 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $83k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Camden Central School District (rural): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #504 of 590 in NY (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 204 units permitted in Oneida County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($574 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Oneida County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.

Recommended offer $82,950

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.77% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.07%
• DSCR: 2.12
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $172,364
• List price: $82,950
• Delta: -51.88%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 43.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.28×
• Total profit: $76,172
• Equity at exit: $74,728

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.4%
• Equity multiple: 9.62×
• Total profit: $200,178
• Equity at exit: $161,154

Cash invested: $23,226 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13308

• Home prices YoY: 28.6%
• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,471 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$435
• Tax from tax record: −$207 /mo · $2,487/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$309
• Net cashflow: $485

Break-even live

Break-even rent $857

Max offer price $82,950

Occupancy floor 62%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,738
• Closing costs: $2,488
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending 519-char remark
2. 2026-04-27
   listed $82,950 Active 519-char remark
3. 2026-03-23
   status Pending
4. 2026-03-23
   historical
5. 2026-01-22
   price $82,950
6. 2025-12-25
   listed $86,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,487 · $207/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,487 · $207/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,652
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,646
• − Property taxes: −$2,487
• − Insurance: −$415
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,412
• − Management: −$1,412
• − Depreciation: −$2,413
• Taxable income: $4,867
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,168
• After-tax cash flow: $4,656/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Camden Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3606240
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $48,686
• Composite: 35.15/100
• National rank: #5008
• State rank: #504 of 590 in NY

Livability — North Bay

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• City population: 35
• Population (ZIP): 4,239

Population outlook (Oneida County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 225,223 people
• By 2030: 220,384 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 209,071 · -7.2%
• By 2050: 197,920 · -12.1%
• By 2075: 175,541 · -22.1%
• By 2100: 148,491 · -34.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Lithuanian 3% Subsaharan African 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oneida

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.3) · D 39.4% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.2pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -21.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.3 2020: R+15.5 2016: R+21.1 2012: R+5.3 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 73.19%
• Current HPI: 329.3091
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-13.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Sold (MLS) $75,000 CNYIS
• 2026-05-05 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-04-27 Listed $82,950 CNYIS
• 2026-03-23 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-03-23 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $82,950 CNYIS
• 2025-12-25 Listed $86,900 CNYIS

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,487 · -0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.