2399 E 14th #44 · San Leandro, CA 94577

$49,999

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 432 sqft · Manufactured · 107 Days on market

$116/sqft · 9% above area Est $46k · 9% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +3.6/15.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Think you can’t afford to own in the Bay Area? Plot twist: you can. This 1-bedroom mobile home in San Leandro is just $59,000. Yes, you read that right. That’s not rent — that’s ownership. Perfect for first-time buyers, savvy downsizers, or anyone tired of making their landlord rich. Smart layout, easy living, and a price point that actually makes sense. Move in, make it yours, and start building equity instead of excuses. Affordable. Attainable. Absolutely worth a look.

Key facts

• Listed 107 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $45k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 32.7% vs local median 2.0% in San Leandro — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#289 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools D, crime F.
• San Leandro Unified (urban): math 28% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #831 of 1,400 in CA (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 106 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,742 units permitted in Alameda County in 2024 (856 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $345 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alameda County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.7% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($45k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 26y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $9k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $45,499 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.66% ✓
• Cap rate: 32.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 94.29%
• DSCR: 5.20
• GRM: 2.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $46,000
• List price: $49,999
• Delta: 8.69%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2399 E 14th St #105	0.12mi	1/1.0	420 (-3%)	1mo	$46,000	$110	89
2399 E 14th St #66	0.06mi	1/1.0	480 (+11%)	3mo	$46,000	$96	76
2399 E 14th St #71	0.00mi	1/1.0	480 (+11%)	21mo	$55,000	$115	64
2399 E 14th St #56	0.06mi	1/1.0	480 (+11%)	23mo	$33,000	$69	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.74% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 93.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.26×
• Total profit: $59,699
• Equity at exit: $7,455

10-year hold

• IRR: 96.3%
• Equity multiple: 10.51×
• Total profit: $133,150
• Equity at exit: $4,323

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94577

• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 106
• Price-to-rent: 2.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,830 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$62 /mo · $750/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$384
• Net cashflow: $1,100

Break-even live

Break-even rent $437

Max offer price $49,999

Occupancy floor 35%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,999 Active 107 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,999 Active 106 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,999 Active 105 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,999 Active 104 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,999 Active 102 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,999 Active 98 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $49,999 Active 97 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $49,999 Active 96 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $49,999 Active 93 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $49,999 Active 92 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $49,999 Active 91 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $56,990 Active 90 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $56,990 Active 89 DOM
14. 2026-04-28
    price $56,990 502-char remark

    Show marketing remark (502 chars)

    Think you can’t afford to own in the Bay Area? Plot twist: you can. This 1-bedroom mobile home in San Leandro is just $59,000. Yes, you read that right. That’s not rent — that’s ownership. Perfect for first-time buyers, savvy downsizers, or anyone tired of making their landlord rich. Smart layout, easy living, and a price point that actually makes sense. Move in, make it yours, and start building equity instead of excuses. Affordable. Attainable. Absolutely worth a look.

15. 2026-03-03
    listed $59,000 Active 502-char remark

    Show marketing remark (502 chars)

    Think you can’t afford to own in the Bay Area? Plot twist: you can. This 1-bedroom mobile home in San Leandro is just $59,000. Yes, you read that right. That’s not rent — that’s ownership. Perfect for first-time buyers, savvy downsizers, or anyone tired of making their landlord rich. Smart layout, easy living, and a price point that actually makes sense. Move in, make it yours, and start building equity instead of excuses. Affordable. Attainable. Absolutely worth a look.

16. 2024-06-04
    soldstatus $51,000
17. 2024-06-04
    soldstatus $51,000 Closed
18. 2024-05-17
    status Pending
19. 2024-04-01
    listed $53,000
20. 2024-04-01
    listed $53,000 Active
21. 2000-08-02
    soldstatus $12,000
22. 2000-07-07
    listed $15,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥84°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,959
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$750
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,757
• − Management: −$1,757
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $13,190
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,166
• After-tax cash flow: $10,035/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Leandro Unified
• NCES district ID: 0634680
• Math proficiency: 28% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $63,377
• Composite: 34.23/100
• National rank: #10252
• State rank: #831 of 1400 in CA

Livability — San Leandro

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #289
• US rank: #9768

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Leandro, CA
• County: Alameda County · 1,614,355 people
• City population: 88,086
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 46,317
• Household income: $108,772
• Rent vs Own: 44.5% rent · 55.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2005.0

Population outlook (Alameda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,928,884 people
• By 2030: 2,069,146 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 2,338,405 · +21.2%
• By 2050: 2,586,608 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 3,061,911 · +58.7%
• By 2100: 3,234,133 · +67.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.76)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 31% Asian 28% White 23% Two or more races 14% Black 12% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Russian 2% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 34% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 23% Chinese 10% Tagalog/Filipino 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Alameda

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+53.6) · D 74.6% · R 21.0% · Other 4.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.9pp toward R · 2008: 59.5pp · 2024: 53.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+53.6 2020: D+62.5 2016: D+64.4 2012: D+59.8 2008: D+59.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -867.55%
• Current HPI: 265.2446
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.74%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+279.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $56,990 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-03-03 Listed $59,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2024-06-04 Sold (MLS) $51,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2024-06-04 Sold (MLS) $51,000 San Francisco MLS
• 2024-05-17 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2024-04-01 Listed $53,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2024-04-01 Listed $53,000 San Francisco MLS
• 2000-08-02 Sold (MLS) $12,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2000-07-07 Listed $15,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR