1121 Ashleman St · Bellmead, TX 76705

$99,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 252 Days on market

Built 1940 6,839 sqft lot Est $78k · 27% over ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.0/30.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 2 bedroom, 1 bath home in a nice quiet neighborhood is ready for immediate move-in. Light remodel-New Paint, new roof, nice size back yard, detached garage, and so much more. Shopping (H-E-B, Walmart, Sam’s Club, etc.) and just minutes from Baylor, so many restaurants and other services are available within just a few minutes.

Key facts

• 6,839 sq ft lot
• Built 1940
• Listed 252 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $159 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 5.1% in Bellmead — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#893 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• La Vega ISD (suburban): math 24% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #680 of 826 in TX (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: La Vega El (math 14% / reading 31%, grade F, #3,311 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 659 students, 94% FRL) — zoned schools average 94% FRL vs 79% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 297 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,014 units permitted in McLennan County in 2024 (200 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• McLennan County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 252 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 60% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 252 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.84%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $78,480
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1121 Ashleman St	0.00mi	2/1.0	720 (0%)	1mo	$99,900	$139	99
1224 Ashleman St	0.16mi	2/1.0	768 (+7%)	2mo	$145,000	$189	80
1109 Campbelton St	0.56mi	2/1.0	642 (-11%)	13mo	$65,000	$101	45
2207 Behrens Cir	0.69mi	1/1.0 (-1)	780 (+8%)	13mo	$74,900	$96	38
1405 Strickland St	0.72mi	2/1.0	660 (-8%)	21mo	$71,900	$109	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.2% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-6,881
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $3,654
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76705

• Home prices YoY: -29.6%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 297
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,102 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$146 /mo · $1,750/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$231
• Net cashflow: $159

Break-even live

Break-even rent $900

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3600 Scroggins Dr Waco, TX	1.0	1.0	681	$920	$1.35	43d	4	0.46mi
3500 Meyers Ln Waco, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	684	$1,125	$1.64	13d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-04-25
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-14
   historical Active Option Contract
3. 2026-04-14
   status Pending
4. 2025-11-25
   price $99,900
5. 2025-11-25
   price $99,000
6. 2025-10-31
   price $106,500
7. 2025-10-06
   price $107,000
8. 2025-09-22
   price $110,000
9. 2025-09-17
   price $111,500
10. 2025-08-16
    listed $112,000 Active
11. 2023-06-16
    soldstatus 339-char remark

    Show marketing remark (339 chars)

    This 2 bedroom, 1 bath home in a nice quiet neighborhood is ready for immediate move-in. Light remodel-New Paint, new roof, nice size back yard, detached garage, and so much more. Shopping (H-E-B, Walmart, Sam’s Club, etc.) and just minutes from Baylor, so many restaurants and other services are available within just a few minutes.

12. 2023-06-16
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (339 chars)

    This 2 bedroom, 1 bath home in a nice quiet neighborhood is ready for immediate move-in. Light remodel-New Paint, new roof, nice size back yard, detached garage, and so much more. Shopping (H-E-B, Walmart, Sam’s Club, etc.) and just minutes from Baylor, so many restaurants and other services are available within just a few minutes.

13. 2023-05-05
    listed $119,500 339-char remark

    Show marketing remark (339 chars)

    This 2 bedroom, 1 bath home in a nice quiet neighborhood is ready for immediate move-in. Light remodel-New Paint, new roof, nice size back yard, detached garage, and so much more. Shopping (H-E-B, Walmart, Sam’s Club, etc.) and just minutes from Baylor, so many restaurants and other services are available within just a few minutes.

14. 1990-01-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,750 · $146/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,828 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: +$79/yr (+$7/mo · 4.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 60% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,227
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$1,750
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,058
• − Management: −$1,058
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $360
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$86
• After-tax cash flow: $1,828/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: La Vega ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826280
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $38,539
• Composite: 23.42/100
• National rank: #7892
• State rank: #680 of 826 in TX

Livability — Bellmead

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #893
• US rank: #16031

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bellmead, TX
• County: McLennan County · 213,088 people
• City population: 31,750
• Metro: Waco, TX
• Population (ZIP): 31,616
• Household income: $58,236
• Rent vs Own: 37.2% rent · 62.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 668.0

Population outlook (McLennan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 264,191 people
• By 2030: 273,578 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 291,506 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 308,044 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 349,648 · +32.3%
• By 2100: 364,779 · +38.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 20% Black 18% Native American 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · McLennan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.9) · D 34.0% · R 64.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.9pp · 2024: -30.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.9 2020: R+23.4 2016: R+27.1 2012: R+29.8 2008: R+23.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -91.45%
• Current HPI: 217.9429
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.20%
• Metro: Waco, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-16.4% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-14 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-04-14 Pending — NTREIS
• 2025-11-25 Price Changed $99,900 NTREIS
• 2025-11-25 Price Changed $99,000 NTREIS
• 2025-10-31 Price Changed $106,500 NTREIS
• 2025-10-06 Price Changed $107,000 NTREIS
• 2025-09-22 Price Changed $110,000 NTREIS
• 2025-09-17 Price Changed $111,500 NTREIS
• 2025-08-16 Listed $112,000 NTREIS
• 2023-06-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-06-16 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2023-05-05 Listed $119,500 NTREIS
• 1990-01-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+10.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,750 · +15.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.