18378 Peyton Ln · Vance, AL 35490

$223,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,469 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 51 Days on market

Built 2006 Est $250k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

WELCOME HOME! Newly remodeled three bedroom two bath in Briar Ridge subdivision. This move-in ready home features new paint, new fixtures, new LVP flooring, hard surface counter tops and a fenced yard. Schedule your showing today! Priced to sell!

Key facts

• Remodeled
• Fenced yard
• New paint

Tags

• REMODELED
• NEW PAINT
• NEW FIXTURES
• NEW LVP FLOORING
• HARD SURFACE COUNTER TOPS
• FENCED YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $224k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $68 ($811/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (22.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $174k (22.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.6% in Vance — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#117 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Tuscaloosa County (suburban): math 21% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #47 of 129 in AL (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Vance Elementary School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #367 of 627 statewide, top 60%, 499 students, 69% FRL); Brookwood Middle School (math 8% / reading 36%, grade F, #182 of 257 statewide, top 71%, 796 students, 65% FRL); Brookwood High School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #118 of 305 statewide, top 45%, 1,078 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 45% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 622 units permitted in Tuscaloosa County in 2024 (69 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Tuscaloosa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $63k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $141k; list at $224k implies a 59% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 60% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $174,105 (22.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.30%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $249,730
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18378 Peyton Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,469 (0%)	1mo	$223,000	$152	99
18446 Marsh Pkwy	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-4%)	10mo	$250,000	$178	72
18383 Mahaffey Circle Cir	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,328 (-10%)	5mo	$225,200	$170	72
10577 Keller Ln	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,426 (-3%)	14mo	$250,000	$175	71
10593 Randall Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,437 (-2%)	21mo	$225,000	$157	64
18424 Marsh Pkwy	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,292 (-12%)	10mo	$200,000	$155	62
18453 Marsh Pkwy	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,367 (-7%)	21mo	$234,900	$172	58
18429 Marsh Pkwy	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,331 (-9%)	21mo	$235,000	$177	56
10801 Vance Blocton Rd	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,323 (-10%)	9mo	$185,000	$140	52
18430 Marsh Pkwy	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,264 (-14%)	20mo	$224,900	$178	51
10758 Bent Brook Dr	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,583 (+8%)	0mo	$260,000	$164	47
18495 Mindy Valley Rd	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+9%)	20mo	$269,900	$169	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.01×
• Total profit: $125,910
• Equity at exit: $201,347

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.87×
• Total profit: $367,163
• Equity at exit: $434,211

Cash invested: $62,580 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35490

• Home prices YoY: 5.8%
• Active inventory: 79
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,741 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,172
• Tax from tax record: −$43 /mo · $512/yr
• Insurance: −$93
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$366
• Net cashflow: $68

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,655

Max offer price $223,500

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,875
• Closing costs: $6,705
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18542 Caffee Dr Vance, AL	4.0	2.0	1774	$1,750	$0.99	21d	1	1.09mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-03-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-11
   price $223,500
3. 2026-02-20
   price $225,000
4. 2026-02-04
   listed $229,900 Active
5. 2018-09-04
   soldstatus $141,000
6. 2018-08-31
   soldstatus $141,000
7. 2018-07-20
   listed $139,900
8. 2010-04-08
   soldstatus $124,254

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $512 · $43/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $916 · $76/mo
• Expected delta: +$405/yr (+$34/mo · 79.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 60% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,893
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,519
• − Property taxes: −$512
• − Insurance: −$1,118
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,671
• − Management: −$1,671
• − Depreciation: −$6,502
• Taxable loss: −$3,101
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$744
• After-tax cash flow: $1,555/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tuscaloosa County
• NCES district ID: 0103390
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $53,000
• Composite: 28.88/100
• National rank: #6641
• State rank: #47 of 129 in AL

Livability — Vance

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #117
• US rank: #12508

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Vance, AL
• County: Tuscaloosa County · 206,491 people
• City population: 4,457
• Metro: Tuscaloosa, AL
• Population (ZIP): 4,457
• Household income: $87,813
• Rent vs Own: 11.7% rent · 88.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 5.0

Population outlook (Tuscaloosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 228,293 people
• By 2030: 240,551 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 263,856 · +15.6%
• By 2050: 286,491 · +25.5%
• By 2075: 335,783 · +47.1%
• By 2100: 370,520 · +62.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 4% Two or more races 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: French 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 7% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuscaloosa

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.4) · D 39.4% · R 59.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -16.0pp · 2024: -20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.4 2020: R+14.8 2016: R+19.5 2012: R+17.4 2008: R+16.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.30%
• Current HPI: 222.8671
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tuscaloosa, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+79.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Pending — WAMLS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $223,500 WAMLS
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $225,000 WAMLS
• 2026-02-04 Listed $229,900 WAMLS
• 2018-09-04 Sold (Public Records) $141,000 Public Records
• 2018-08-31 Sold (MLS) $141,000 WAMLS
• 2018-07-20 Listed $139,900 WAMLS
• 2010-04-08 Sold (Public Records) $124,254 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $512 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.