10311 Bluegill Way · San Antonio, TX 78224

$269,999

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,202 sqft · SingleFamily · 36 Days on market

Built 2026 4,791 sqft lot Est $293k · 8% under $33/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks

The Navarre- This new single-level home boasts a modern and low-maintenance design. Three secondary bedrooms are located off the foyer, with a nearby study perfect for focusing on important tasks throughout the week. An inviting open-concept living area combines the kitchen, living and dining areas, with a nearby covered patio ready for outdoor entertainment and leisure. A lavish owner's suite completes the home, offering direct access to an en-suite bathroom and generous walk-in closet. Estimated Completion June 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Modern design
• Single-level home
• Covered patio

Tags

• SINGLE-LEVEL HOME
• MODERN DESIGN
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• COVERED PATIO
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-368 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $217k (19.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (28.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (28.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• Southwest ISD (rural): math 21% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #701 of 826 in TX (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Spicewood Park El (math 16% / reading 23%, grade F, #3,583 of 4,322 statewide, top 86%, 593 students, 93% FRL); Ronald E Mcnair Middle (math 27% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,103 of 1,662 statewide, top 67%, 748 students, 77% FRL); Southwest H S (math 17% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 2,152 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 275 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $193,819 (28.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.84%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $292,866
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10602 Red Shiner Run	0.17mi	4/3.0	2,202 (0%)	1mo	$266,999	$121	91
10710 Marlin Pond	0.27mi	4/2.0	2,193 (-0%)	1mo	$252,999	$115	82
10615 Red Shiner Run	0.21mi	4/3.0	2,370 (+8%)	1mo	$272,999	$115	77
10622 Red Shiner Run	0.21mi	4/3.0	2,015 (-8%)	0mo	$267,999	$133	76
1422 Caceres Spur	0.41mi	4/3.0	2,288 (+4%)	1mo	$302,999	$132	74
10054 Mitra	0.47mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,157 (-2%)	1mo	$359,990	$167	67
10315 Bluegill Way	0.01mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,896 (-14%)	1mo	$248,999	$131	67
2306 Crisp Gln	0.58mi	4/2.5	2,260 (+3%)	1mo	$319,990	$142	66
2222 Dry Moss Way	0.40mi	4/2.5	2,382 (+8%)	1mo	$254,999	$107	65
10711 Red Shiner Run	0.27mi	4/2.5	1,885 (-14%)	1mo	$264,999	$141	61
10323 Liberty Grv	0.69mi	4/2.5	2,111 (-4%)	1mo	$306,255	$145	58
10826 Apple Pie Rd	0.54mi	4/2.5	1,900 (-14%)	0mo	$312,851	$165	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.83% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.58×
• Total profit: $119,535
• Equity at exit: $243,236

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.80×
• Total profit: $362,845
• Equity at exit: $524,549

Cash invested: $75,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78224

• Home prices YoY: 12.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 275
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,938 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$337 /mo · $4,050/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $-368

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,404

Max offer price $216,788

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-181	-5% $-274	+0% $-368	+5% $-461	+10% $-554
Rent	-10% $-521	-5% $-444	+0% $-368	+5% $-291	+10% $-215
Rate	-1.0pp $-232	-0.5pp $-299	base $-368	+0.5pp $-438	+1.0pp $-509

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,500
• Closing costs: $8,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10523 Goose Way San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1917	$1,785	$0.93	45d	1	0.22mi
2107 Bigmouth Rod San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1777	$1,675	$0.94	45d	1	0.29mi
2111 Bigmouth Rod San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1917	$1,700	$0.89	45d	1	0.30mi
2115 Bigmouth Rod San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1847	$1,755	$0.95	45d	1	0.30mi
10723 Goose Way San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1917	$1,785	$0.93	45d	1	0.32mi
10710 Butterfly Pass San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1917	$1,785	$0.93	45d	1	0.33mi
10527 Hunters Pond San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1510	$1,395	$0.92	45d	1	0.35mi
10719 Butterfly Pass San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1645	$1,640	$1.00	45d	1	0.36mi
2222 Fishing Trl San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1917	$1,785	$0.93	25d	1	0.36mi
10723 Butterfly Pass San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1687	$1,675	$0.99	45d	1	0.36mi
2226 Fishing Trl San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1777	$1,650	$0.93	25d	1	0.37mi
2230 Fishing Trl San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1847	$1,755	$0.95	25d	1	0.38mi
1347 Neria LOOP San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2173	$1,699	$0.78	45d	1	0.38mi
10811 Soupe CV San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2173	$1,995	$0.92	4d	1	0.38mi
2235 Fishing Trl San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1847	$1,755	$0.95	45d	1	0.40mi
2242 Fishing Trl San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1917	$1,785	$0.93	45d	1	0.41mi
10611 Vesta Curv San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,735	$1.07	6d	1	0.43mi
10622 Vesta Curv San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,725	$1.06	6d	1	0.44mi
10542 Nye Pass San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,595	$1.11	45d	1	0.48mi
10807 Bernal Cv San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1575	$1,700	$1.08	18d	1	0.48mi
10823 Bernal Cv San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,000	$1.25	3d	1	0.49mi
2307 Applewhite Mdw San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1798	$1,750	$0.97	45d	1	0.49mi
10151 Asta Trl San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1625	$1,650	$1.02	14d	1	0.50mi
2318 Applewhite Mdw San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1798	$1,795	$1.00	25d	1	0.52mi
2330 Redlove Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1420	$1,600	$1.13	6d	1	0.54mi
2335 Applewhite Mdw San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1529	$1,550	$1.01	6d	1	0.55mi
10135 Ana Hts San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1952	$2,200	$1.13	0d	1	0.56mi
2343 Applewhite Mdw San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1798	$1,795	$1.00	25d	1	0.56mi
2350 Redlove Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1420	$1,675	$1.18	25d	1	0.58mi
10107 Kersey Ml San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1628	$1,695	$1.04	25d	1	0.58mi
1407 Mira Ml San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,000	$1.25	18d	1	0.58mi
2350 Dry Moss Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1420	$1,650	$1.16	45d	1	0.59mi
10031 Kersey Ml San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1950	$1,895	$0.97	3d	1	0.59mi
10007 Kersey Ml San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,495	$1.04	45d	1	0.61mi
10042 Kersey Ml San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,650	$1.14	23d	1	0.61mi
10258 Asta Trl San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1625	$1,590	$0.98	18d	1	0.65mi
10750 Twyla Rd San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,750	$1.25	18d	1	0.67mi
2434 Dry Moss Way San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2417	$2,500	$1.03	0d	1	0.69mi
9514 Veronica St San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1455	$1,450	$1.00	4d	1	0.69mi
10834 Saleh Cor San Antonio, TX	4.0	4.0	2908	$3,250	$1.12	0d	1	0.78mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-22
   price $269,999
3. 2026-04-17
   price $271,999
4. 2026-04-09
   price $273,999
5. 2026-04-03
   price $275,999
6. 2026-03-28
   price $277,999
7. 2026-03-25
   price $282,999
8. 2026-03-18
   listed $287,999 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,258
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,124
• − Property taxes: −$4,050
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,861
• − Management: −$1,861
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$7,855
• Taxable loss: −$9,238
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,217
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,196/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southwest ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840950
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,362
• Composite: 22.22/100
• National rank: #8153
• State rank: #701 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Antonio, TX
• County: Bexar County · 1,990,555 people
• City population: 1,806,925
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 22,232
• Household income: $59,891
• Rent vs Own: 42.3% rent · 57.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 721.0

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 90% Two or more races 24% White 6% Native American 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 75%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 44% English-only · Spanish 55% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.95%
• Current HPI: 272.0709
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.83%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — LERA
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $269,999 LERA
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $271,999 LERA
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $273,999 LERA
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $275,999 LERA
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $277,999 LERA
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $282,999 LERA
• 2026-03-18 Listed $287,999 LERA