1210 Stephen Dr #2 · Panama City, FL 32405

$184,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,416 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 42 Days on market

Built 1987 $130/sqft · 19% below area Est $227k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Conveniently located in the heart of Panama City, this beautifully updated townhome offers affordable living with comfort and convenience. Ideal for first-time homebuyers, college students, or growing families, the property is just minutes from local hospitals, shopping, dining, and nearby college campuses. This move-in-ready home features 3 spacious bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, along with brand-new flooring and fresh interior and exterior paint that give the home a modern, refreshed feel. The functional layout offers comfortable everyday living, while the backyard provides the perfect space for weekend BBQs, outdoor entertaining, and family fun. A playset is already in place to keep the lit

Key facts

• Playset
• Central location
• Backyard

Tags

• UPDATED TOWNHOME
• MOVE IN READY
• BACKYARD
• PLAYSET
• CENTRAL LOCATION

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Short-term rentals allowed

Exterior

• Utilities: Electricity available; Public sewer
• Home design: Multi-family property
• Construction: Brick and wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; City street frontage; Publicly maintained road access; Zoned for residential multi-family

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Electric range
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (all on the second level)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Central heating and central air conditioning
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $184k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $284 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $182k (1.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $178k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 4.7% in Panama City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#350 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 381 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($178k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $64k; list at $184k implies a 188% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $178,480 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.61%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $227,377
• List price: $184,000
• Delta: -19.08%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2008 Gail Ct	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,475 (+4%)	15mo	$282,500	$192	72
1219 Emory Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,410 (-0%)	18mo	$175,100	$124	67
2409 Nicole Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,487 (+5%)	2mo	$310,000	$208	56
1212 Emory Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,320 (-7%)	20mo	$210,000	$159	54
2408 Stanford Rd	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,453 (+3%)	22mo	$249,000	$171	46
109 Springhill Cir	0.46mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,596 (+13%)	18mo	$290,000	$182	37
704 W 19th St	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,596 (+13%)	11mo	$265,000	$166	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.24% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-14,957
• Equity at exit: $27,435

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-2,483
• Equity at exit: $15,909

Cash invested: $51,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32405

• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 381
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,820 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$965
• Tax from tax record: −$112 /mo · $1,349/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$382
• Net cashflow: $284

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,461

Max offer price $184,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,000
• Closing costs: $5,520
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1827 Balboa Ave Panama City, FL	3.0	2.5	1440	$1,800	$1.25	13d	1	0.36mi
901 W 19th St Panama City, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	787	$1,168	$1.48	21d	5	0.44mi
723 W 19th St Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	1170	$1,520	$1.30	21d	15	0.60mi
1804 Arthur Ave Panama City, FL	3.0	1.5	1044	$1,795	$1.72	21d	1	0.91mi
300 W 23rd Pl Unit 1491599P Panama City, FL	2.0	1.5	1313	$2,592	$1.97	21d	1	1.04mi
1525 Oak Ave Panama City, FL	3.0	1.5	1280	$2,200	$1.72	21d	1	1.09mi
1710 Drake Ave Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1130	$1,850	$1.64	21d	1	1.11mi
265 15th St Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	967	$1,462	$1.51	13d	4	1.13mi
2121 Harrison Ave Panama City, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	800	$1,550	$1.94	21d	13	1.20mi
2602 W 12th St Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,095	$1.50	21d	1	1.42mi
3100 Sweetbay Ave Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	957	$2,168	$2.26	13d	26	1.45mi
2100 W Beach Dr Unit F102 Panama City, FL	2.0	1.0	970	$1,700	$1.75	21d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $184,000 Active 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $184,000 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $184,000 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $184,000 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $184,000 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   pricedays on market $184,000 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $188,000 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $188,000 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $188,000 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $188,000 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $188,000 Active 30 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $188,000 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $188,000 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $188,000 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $188,000 Active 24 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    pricedays on market $188,000 Active 23 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $195,000 Active 22 DOM
18. 2026-05-08
    listed $195,000 Active 858-char remark
19. 2021-12-14
    historical
20. 2009-09-04
    soldstatus $64,000
21. 2009-02-12
    listed $69,900
22. 2006-05-28
    historical
23. 2005-11-28
    listed $136,500
24. 2005-11-28
    listed $136,500
25. 2005-11-28
    listed $136,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,349 · $112/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,527 · $127/mo
• Expected delta: +$178/yr (+$15/mo · 13.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,839
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,307
• − Property taxes: −$1,349
• − Insurance: −$920
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,747
• − Management: −$1,747
• − Depreciation: −$5,353
• Taxable income: $416
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$100
• After-tax cash flow: $3,305/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Panama City

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #350
• US rank: #5823

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Panama City, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 91,445
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 29,984
• Household income: $73,373
• Rent vs Own: 40.5% rent · 59.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1008.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 17% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% Arabic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -217.88%
• Current HPI: 262.7854
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.24%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+34.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Price Changed $184,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-05-30 Price Changed $188,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $195,000 CPARMLS
• 2021-12-14 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2009-09-04 Sold (MLS) $64,000 CPARMLS
• 2009-02-12 Listed $69,900 CPARMLS
• 2006-05-28 Listing Removed — NAMLS
• 2005-11-28 Listed $136,500 NAMLS
• 2005-11-28 Listed $136,500 ECAR
• 2005-11-28 Listed $136,500 CPARMLS

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,349 · -7.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.