427 E Locust · Lodi, CA 95240

$950,000

72 bd · 54.0 ba · 5,432 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 98 Days on market

Built 1970 8,499 sqft lot $175/sqft · 18% above area Est $807k · 18% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.7/30.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 6 units. confirmed

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks

6 unit apartment complex fully occupied. Townhouse style with living room, half bath and kitchen downstairs. 2 bedrooms and full bath upstairs. Each unit has their own patio area and covered parking in alley. Several long-term tenants in place

Key facts

• Covered parking
• Patio area
• Townhouse style

Tags

• TOWNHOUSE STYLE
• PATIO AREA
• COVERED PARKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6 × 2-bed/1.5-bath units multifamily listed at $950k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($27k/yr) — positive. Per door: $379/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($11k rent vs $950k).
• Recommended offer: $864k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 3.0% in Lodi — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#730 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A; Watch: schools C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Lodi Unified (urban): math 24% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #325 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 163 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $10,634/mo this rent would consume 155% of the median local household income ($82k/yr) (locally 1918% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $28k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($864k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $594k; list at $950k implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $864,500 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.25%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $807,201
• List price: $950,000
• Delta: 17.69%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-19,154
• Equity at exit: $141,648

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.49×
• Total profit: $129,852
• Equity at exit: $82,139

Cash invested: $266,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95240

• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 163
• Price-to-rent: 44.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $10,634 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,982
• Tax from tax record: −$752 /mo · $9,024/yr
• Insurance: −$396
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,233
• Net cashflow: $2,271

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,759

Max offer price $950,000

Occupancy floor 74%

6-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 6× units	2	1.5	$10,632
Total (6 units)			$10,634

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $237,500
• Closing costs: $28,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $950,000 Active 98 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $950,000 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $950,000 Active 96 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $950,000 Active 95 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $950,000 Active 93 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $950,000 Active 90 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $950,000 Active 89 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $950,000 Active 88 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $950,000 Active 87 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $950,000 Active 84 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $950,000 Active 83 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $950,000 Active 82 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $950,000 Active 81 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $950,000 Active 80 DOM
15. 2005-04-19
    soldstatus $594,000
16. 2003-04-03
    soldstatus $405,000
17. 2001-05-11
    soldstatus $440,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,024 · $752/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,024 · $752/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 27 unhealthy d/yr today · 29 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $127,608
• − Mortgage interest: −$53,215
• − Property taxes: −$9,024
• − Insurance: −$4,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$10,209
• − Management: −$10,209
• − Depreciation: −$27,636
• Taxable income: $12,566
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,016
• After-tax cash flow: $24,238/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lodi Unified
• NCES district ID: 0622230
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $57,165
• Composite: 26.84/100
• National rank: #7108
• State rank: #325 of 517 in CA

Livability — Lodi

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #730
• US rank: #21523

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C Housing A Health & safety C+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lodi, CA
• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• City population: 78,944
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 50,517
• Household income: $82,137
• Rent vs Own: 49.0% rent · 51.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1918.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 35% Two or more races 26% Asian 12% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 44% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 35% Other Indo-European 7% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -469.68%
• Current HPI: 320.685
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.08%
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+35.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2005-04-19 Sold (Public Records) $594,000 Public Records
• 2003-04-03 Sold (Public Records) $405,000 Public Records
• 2001-05-11 Sold (Public Records) $440,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,024 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.