823 New Lots Ave · New York, NY 11208

$780,000

8 bd · 3.6 ba · 2,100 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1910 2,026 sqft lot Est $951k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Under Contract This two family home does need work and can be your dream come true with your vision. The seller is motivated. Located near transportation, shops and more.

Key facts

• 2,026 sq ft lot
• Built 1910
• Listed 29 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 4-bed/1.8-bath units multifamily listed at $780k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive. Per door: $777/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $780k).
• Recommended offer: $768k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 192 active listings in the ZIP; 10,063 units permitted in Kings County in 2024 (9,789 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $7,903/mo this rent would consume 153% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) (locally 7574% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $23k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kings County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.1% rent growth), your $218k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($768k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $768,300 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.54%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $951,300
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
623 Ashford St	0.15mi	7/3.0 (-1)	1,786 (-15%)	1mo	$1,120,000	$627	60
434 Warwick St	0.46mi	7/2.0 (-1)	2,108 (+0%)	14mo	$950,000	$451	54
919 Dumont Ave	0.22mi	7/4.0 (-1)	2,320 (+10%)	18mo	$1,050,000	$453	51
170 Montauk Ave	0.54mi	7/2.0 (-1)	2,000 (-5%)	12mo	$850,000	$425	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-1,970
• Equity at exit: $116,301

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.09×
• Total profit: $237,197
• Equity at exit: $67,440

Cash invested: $218,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City New York: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34

Rent Stabilization Code; HSTPA; 6+ months in housing court.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11208

• Rents YoY: 6.1%
• Active inventory: 192
• Price-to-rent: 16.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,903 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,090
• Tax from tax record: −$274 /mo · $3,286/yr
• Insurance: −$325
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,660
• Net cashflow: $1,554

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,936

Max offer price $780,000

Occupancy floor 75%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	4	1.8	$7,904
Total (2 units)			$7,903

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $195,000
• Closing costs: $23,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2023-05-11
   status Pending
2. 2023-04-13
   listed $780,000 Active
3. 2023-04-05
   historical $780,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,286 · $274/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,234 · $686/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,948/yr (+$412/mo · 150.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 65% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $94,836
• − Mortgage interest: −$43,692
• − Property taxes: −$3,286
• − Insurance: −$3,900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,587
• − Management: −$7,587
• − Depreciation: −$22,691
• Taxable income: $6,093
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,462
• After-tax cash flow: $17,187/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — New York

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #4188

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New York, NY
• County: Kings County · 2,614,986 people
• City population: 7,731,280
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 105,428
• Household income: $62,077
• Rent vs Own: 75.1% rent · 24.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 7574.0

Population outlook (Kings County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,847,441 people
• By 2030: 2,937,006 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 3,095,491 · +8.7%
• By 2050: 3,228,968 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 3,321,723 · +16.7%
• By 2100: 3,111,387 · +9.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 42% Hispanic / Latino 39% Asian 10% Two or more races 8% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 9% Dominican 16%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 40% · Canada, China, Mexico
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 36% Other Indo-European 11% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kings

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+44.0) · D 72.0% · R 28.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.5pp toward R · 2008: 59.4pp · 2024: 44.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+44.0 2020: D+54.8 2016: D+61.8 2012: D+63.9 2008: D+59.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -546.38%
• Current HPI: 376.1489
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.14%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2023-05-11 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-13 Listed $780,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-05 Coming Soon $780,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,286 · -1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.