12931 W Chapala Dr · Sun City West, AZ 85375

$315,000

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,154 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 62 Days on market

Built 2005 4,400 sqft lot $273/sqft · 17% below area Est $379k · 17% under $237/mo HOA · 8% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Sun City West - Gorgeous Corte Bella Country Club - Adult 55+ Community. 2 bed 2 bath 1154 sq ft, 2 Car Garage and Open Back Yard. New AC & Furnace 2023, New Appliances 2023, Brand New Washer and Dryer 2026! Tile Floors throughout 2021. Rooms Split to Side Front and Back. Huge Walk In Closet. Kitchen with Peninsula open to Living Room, Covered Patio with Extended length Back Patio and Retractable Awning, South West exposure for Beautiful Sunsets! Amazing Sissoo Tree for Shade and Privacy, Agave and Other Plants - Very Low Maintenance Yard! Garage Built in Cabinets and Shelves for Extra Storage! Original Owners Quality Care! Corte Bella Active Resort Style Community - Golf Course, Walking Paths, Community Center, Tennis, Pickleball, Pool, Spa, Gym, Restaurants, Community Even

Key facts

• Tile floors
• New appliances
• Huge walk in closet

Tags

• NEW AC
• NEW APPLIANCES
• BRAND NEW WASHER AND DRYER
• TILE FLOORS
• HUGE WALK IN CLOSET
• KITCHEN WITH PENINSULA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $282 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $306k (3.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $296k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 4.1% in Sun City West — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#106 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime B, cost of living B; Watch: schools D+, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Peoria Unified School District (4237) (suburban): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #64 of 249 in AZ (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.0%/yr); 125 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,056/mo this rent would consume 57% of the median local household income ($64k/yr) (locally 691% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $296,100 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.83%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $378,855
• List price: $315,000
• Delta: -16.85%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12930 W Chapala Dr	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,154 (0%)	3mo	$350,000	$303	92
22417 N Los Gatos Dr	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,154 (0%)	2mo	$337,000	$292	90
12948 W EL Sueno Ct	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,154 (0%)	13mo	$300,000	$260	83
22504 N San Ramon Dr	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,154 (0%)	11mo	$475,000	$412	82
22524 N San Ramon Dr	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,154 (0%)	12mo	$468,000	$406	82
12934 W Chapala Dr	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,283 (+11%)	4mo	$365,000	$284	73
12945 W EL Sueno Ct	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,283 (+11%)	4mo	$355,000	$277	71
12937 W EL Sueno Ct	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,283 (+11%)	10mo	$420,000	$327	66
12941 W EL Sueno Ct	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,283 (+11%)	15mo	$390,000	$304	62
22520 N San Ramon Dr	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,283 (+11%)	16mo	$480,000	$374	60
22454 N San Ramon Dr	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,283 (+11%)	15mo	$450,000	$351	60
22407 N San Ramon Ct	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,283 (+11%)	20mo	$390,000	$304	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.03% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-20,182
• Equity at exit: $46,968

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.72×
• Total profit: $63,111
• Equity at exit: $27,235

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85375

• Rents YoY: 7.0%
• Active inventory: 125
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,056 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$112 /mo · $1,348/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$237
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$642
• Net cashflow: $282

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,699

Max offer price $315,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13452 W El Sueno Ct Sun City West, AZ	2.0	2.0	1378	$3,200	$2.32	1d	1	0.70mi
22816 N Las Positas Dr Sun City West, AZ	2.0	2.0	1351	$4,500	$3.33	1d	1	0.71mi
13758 W Sola Dr Sun City West, AZ	2.0	1.5	1351	$3,950	$2.92	1d	1	1.12mi
11980 W Dos Rios Dr Sun City, AZ	3.0	2.0	1310	$1,850	$1.41	43d	1	1.36mi
14113 W Robertson Dr Sun City West, AZ	2.0	1.5	1410	$3,800	$2.70	43d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $237 · $2,844/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   price $315,000 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $320,000 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $320,000 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $320,000 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $320,000 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $320,000 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $320,000 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $320,000 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $320,000 Active 52 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $320,000 Active 51 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $320,000 Active 48 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $320,000 Active 47 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $320,000 Active 46 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $320,000 Active 45 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $320,000 Active 44 DOM
16. 2026-04-16
    listed $350,000 Active 790-char remark

    Show marketing remark (790 chars)

    Sun City West - Gorgeous Corte Bella Country Club - Adult 55+ Community. 2 bed 2 bath 1154 sq ft, 2 Car Garage and Open Back Yard. New AC & Furnace 2023, New Appliances 2023, Brand New Washer and Dryer 2026! Tile Floors throughout 2021. Rooms Split to Side Front and Back. Huge Walk In Closet. Kitchen with Peninsula open to Living Room, Covered Patio with Extended length Back Patio and Retractable Awning, South West exposure for Beautiful Sunsets! Amazing Sissoo Tree for Shade and Privacy, Agave and Other Plants - Very Low Maintenance Yard! Garage Built in Cabinets and Shelves for Extra Storage! Original Owners Quality Care! Corte Bella Active Resort Style Community - Golf Course, Walking Paths, Community Center, Tennis, Pickleball, Pool, Spa, Gym, Restaurants, Community Even

17. 2026-04-12
    historical
18. 2026-03-13
    listed $365,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,348 · $112/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,079 · $173/mo
• Expected delta: +$731/yr (+$61/mo · 54.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,672
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$1,348
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,934
• − Management: −$2,934
• − HOA: −$2,844
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable loss: −$1,770
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$425
• After-tax cash flow: $3,807/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Peoria Unified School District (4237)
• NCES district ID: 0406250
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $60,171
• Composite: 34.62/100
• National rank: #5152
• State rank: #64 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Sun City West

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #106
• US rank: #14878

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sun City West, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 27,680
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 27,680
• Household income: $63,928
• Rent vs Own: 11.9% rent · 88.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 691.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Portuguese 5% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.20%
• Current HPI: 239.3422
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.03%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-4.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Listed $350,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-12 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-03-13 Listed $365,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

+0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,348 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.