6855 W Kay Lynn Dr · Tucson Estates, AZ 85735

$158,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 160 sqft · Manufactured public records · 57 Days on market

Built 1968 1.24 ac lot $988/sqft · 430% above area Est $164k · at est. ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• ARV discount +9.1/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

**''Opportunity is knocking in Tucson's desirable Southwest area!** This affixed mobile home sits on an expansive 1.24-acre lot with the potential to accommodate a second home--perfect for multi-generational living, rental income, or future development. Major upgrades have already been completed, including new framework, sheetrock, electrical, and plumbing, along with a newer roof, new doors, and fresh interior and exterior paint. The heavy lifting is done now it's your chance to bring the vision to life. Whether you're an investor looking for your next project or a homeowner ready to customize your dream space, this property offers incredible upside, flexibility, and value. Don't miss the chance to turn this promising property into something truly special!

Key facts

• New plumbing
• New framework
• 1.24-acre lot

Tags

• 1.24-ACRE LOT
• NEW FRAMEWORK
• NEW SHEETROCK
• NEW ELECTRICAL
• NEW PLUMBING
• NEWER ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $158k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $46 ($550/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $123k (22.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $123k (22.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.4% in Tucson Estates — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#137 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, schools F, amenities F.
• Tucson Unified District (4403) (urban): math 14% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #190 of 249 in AZ (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($153k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $105k; list at $158k implies a 50% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $122,978 (22.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.24%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $164,000
• List price: $158,000
• Delta: -3.66%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-22,765
• Equity at exit: $23,558

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-16,401
• Equity at exit: $13,661

Cash invested: $44,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85735

• Home prices YoY: -16.4%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,230 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$829
• Tax from tax record: −$31 /mo · $375/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $46

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,172

Max offer price $158,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,500
• Closing costs: $4,740
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $158,000 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $158,000 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $158,000 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $158,000 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $158,000 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $158,000 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $158,000 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $158,000 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $158,000 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $158,000 Active 43 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $158,000 Active 42 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $158,000 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $158,000 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $158,000 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-04-22
    listed $160,000 Active 768-char remark

    Show marketing remark (768 chars)

    **''Opportunity is knocking in Tucson's desirable Southwest area!** This affixed mobile home sits on an expansive 1.24-acre lot with the potential to accommodate a second home--perfect for multi-generational living, rental income, or future development. Major upgrades have already been completed, including new framework, sheetrock, electrical, and plumbing, along with a newer roof, new doors, and fresh interior and exterior paint. The heavy lifting is done now it's your chance to bring the vision to life. Whether you're an investor looking for your next project or a homeowner ready to customize your dream space, this property offers incredible upside, flexibility, and value. Don't miss the chance to turn this promising property into something truly special!

16. 2026-01-15
    historical
17. 2025-09-04
    price $166,000
18. 2025-06-21
    price $175,000
19. 2025-04-19
    price $184,000
20. 2025-01-22
    listed $195,000 Active
21. 2023-02-10
    soldstatus $105,000 Closed
22. 2023-02-10
    soldstatus $105,000
23. 2023-02-06
    status Pending
24. 2023-01-31
    historical Active Contingent
25. 2023-01-18
    price $109,000
26. 2023-01-04
    listed $119,000 Active
27. 2022-12-07
    historical
28. 2022-11-09
    price $129,000
29. 2022-09-27
    price $145,000
30. 2022-09-19
    price $154,000
31. 2022-09-08
    listed $169,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $375 · $31/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,043 · $87/mo
• Expected delta: +$668/yr (+$56/mo · 178.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,757
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,850
• − Property taxes: −$375
• − Insurance: −$790
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,181
• − Management: −$1,181
• − Depreciation: −$4,596
• Taxable loss: −$2,216
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$532
• After-tax cash flow: $1,082/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tucson Unified District (4403)
• NCES district ID: 0408800
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,962
• Composite: 15.78/100
• National rank: #9270
• State rank: #190 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Tucson Estates

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #137
• US rank: #16650

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tucson Estates, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 10,893

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 41% Two or more races 19% Native American 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 25%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.03%
• Current HPI: 301.1413
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-5.8% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Listed $160,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-01-15 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2025-09-04 Price Changed $166,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-06-21 Price Changed $175,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-04-19 Price Changed $184,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-01-22 Listed $195,000 MLSSAZ
• 2023-02-10 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records
• 2023-02-10 Sold (MLS) $105,000 MLSSAZ
• 2023-02-06 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2023-01-31 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2023-01-18 Price Changed $109,000 MLSSAZ
• 2023-01-04 Listed $119,000 MLSSAZ
• 2022-12-07 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2022-11-09 Price Changed $129,000 MLSSAZ
• 2022-09-27 Price Changed $145,000 MLSSAZ
• 2022-09-19 Price Changed $154,000 MLSSAZ
• 2022-09-08 Listed $169,900 MLSSAZ

Property tax history

-5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $375 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.