135 Hillview Dr #38 · Fairfield Bay, AR 72088

$79,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,117 sqft · Condo · 201 Days on market

Built 1975 Average condition $71/sqft · 17% below area Est $95k · 17% under $415/mo HOA · 37% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +9.1/10.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover Paradise in Fairfield Bay, AR: Your Private Pool Condo Awaits! Nestled in the Ozark Mountains on stunning Greers Ferry Lake, this exquisite condo boasts its own private pool for ultimate relaxation and exclusivity. Dive into resort-style living without leaving home! Join a vibrant community of full-time residents and resort guests who cherish the blend of serenity and excitement. Friendly neighbors, lively events, and a welcoming vibe make every day feel like vacation. Why Fairfield Bay? Endless amenities include: Boating, fishing, and water sports on 40,000-acre Greers Ferry Lake with full-service marina (400+ slips, rentals) Two 18-hole championship golf courses plus mini golf 90+ miles of ATV/UTV trails and 20+ miles of hiking/biking paths, including Sugar Loaf Mountain and Indian Rock Cave, 8 tennis courts, 3 resort pools, fitness center, bowling, disc golf, pickle ball Parks, playgrounds, library, restaurants, and conference center for all ages Condo life here means low-maintenance luxury: No yard work, shared amenities at your doorstep, and a secure, social environment. Focus on fun, not chores! Priced to sell—don't miss out! Contact us today to schedule a viewing.

Key facts

• Private pool
• Resort pools
• Greers ferry lake

Tags

• PRIVATE POOL
• GREERS FERRY LAKE
• CHAMPIONSHIP GOLF COURSES
• ATV TRAILS
• HIKING PATHS
• RESORT POOLS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $79k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-81 ($-977/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $67k (14.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $79k).
• Recommended offer: $67k (14.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.5% in Fairfield Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#220 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Shirley School District (rural): math 44% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #132 of 245 in AR (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Shirley Elementary School (math 12% / reading 12%, grade F, #419 of 454 statewide, top 93%, 180 students, 100% FRL); Shirley High School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #164 of 292 statewide, top 61%, 139 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 73% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 20% at this address vs 43% district-wide (-24 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Shirley School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 339 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 62d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 16 units permitted in Van Buren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $170 of equity ($546 loan paydown + $-376 appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• Van Buren County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 201 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 37% of rent.

Recommended offer $67,222 (14.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 201 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.42%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $95,275
• List price: $79,000
• Delta: -17.08%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
135 Hillview Unit Dr68	0.00mi	2/1.5	1,117 (0%)	0mo	$90,000	$81	100
135 Hillview Dr #20	0.00mi	2/1.5	1,117 (0%)	1mo	$97,000	$87	99
135 Hillview Dr #19	0.00mi	2/1.5	1,117 (0%)	2mo	$97,000	$87	98
127 Short Haven Ln	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,130 (+1%)	2mo	$119,000	$105	80
224 Pine Knot Rd	0.29mi	2/2.0	1,176 (+5%)	1mo	$150,000	$128	75
158 Dunn Holw	0.43mi	2/2.0	1,144 (+2%)	2mo	$107,500	$94	72
210 Snead Dr	1.44mi	2/2.0	1,072 (-4%)	1mo	$105,000	$98	56
234 Snead Dr	1.32mi	2/2.0	1,176 (+5%)	1mo	$155,000	$132	54
601 Dave Creek Pkwy #82	0.73mi	2/1.5	938 (-16%)	1mo	$85,000	$91	40
601 Dave Creek Pkwy #81	0.73mi	2/1.5	938 (-16%)	1mo	$78,000	$83	40
601 Woodlawn Dr #23	0.93mi	2/2.0	1,300 (+16%)	0mo	$77,600	$60	38
232 Snead Dr	1.34mi	2/2.0	1,374 (+23%)	2mo	$159,000	$116	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.48% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-8,975
• Equity at exit: $21,075

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-4,960
• Equity at exit: $23,890

Cash invested: $22,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 1 active · 2 under contract
• Median asking: $101,000 ($90/sqft)
• Median days on market: 65 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -5.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 72088

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 339
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,113 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$414
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$99 /mo · $1,185/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$415
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$234
• Net cashflow: $-81

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,216

Max offer price $67,222

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-27	-5% $-54	+0% $-81	+5% $-109	+10% $-136
Rent	-10% $-169	-5% $-125	+0% $-81	+5% $-37	+10% $7
Rate	-1.0pp $-42	-0.5pp $-61	base $-81	+0.5pp $-102	+1.0pp $-123

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,750
• Closing costs: $2,370
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
107 Ambrose Ln Fairfield Bay, AR	3.0	2.0	1284	$1,000	$0.78	62d	1	0.38mi
104 Chelsea Dr #49 Fairfield Bay, AR	2.0	1.5	938	$950	$1.01	62d	1	0.54mi
104 Chelsea Dr Fairfield Bay, AR	2.0	1.5	938	$950	$1.01	0d	1	0.75mi
601 Dave Creek Pkwy #86 Fairfield Bay, AR	1.0	1.0	750	$795	$1.06	0d	1	0.76mi
106 Set Ct Fairfield Bay, AR	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,000	$1.54	140d	1	0.78mi

HOA detail $415/mo · $4,980/yr condo

• Likely covers: waterlandscapingpoolgym
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $79,000 Active 201 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $79,000 Active 200 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $79,000 Active 198 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $79,000 Active 197 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $79,000 Active 196 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $79,000 Active 195 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $79,000 Active 194 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $79,000 Active 193 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $79,000 Active 192 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $79,000 Active 191 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $79,000 Active 190 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $79,000 Active 189 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $79,000 Active 188 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $79,000 Active 182 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $79,000 Active 181 DOM
16. 2026-09-03
    days on market $79,000 Active 180 DOM
17. 2026-09-02
    days on market $79,000 Active 179 DOM
18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $79,000 Active 176 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $79,000 Active 175 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $79,000 Active 174 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $79,000 Active 173 DOM
22. 2026-08-26
    days on market $79,000 Active 172 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $79,000 Active 171 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $79,000 Active 170 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $79,000 Active 169 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $79,000 Active 168 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $79,000 Active 167 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $79,000 Active 166 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $79,000 Active 165 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $79,000 Active 164 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $79,000 Active 163 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $79,000 Active 162 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $79,000 Active 161 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $79,000 Active 160 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $79,000 Active 159 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $79,000 Active 158 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $79,000 Active 157 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $79,000 Active 156 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $79,000 Active 155 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $79,000 Active 154 DOM
41. 2026-08-07
    days on market $79,000 Active 153 DOM
42. 2026-08-06
    days on market $79,000 Active 152 DOM
43. 2026-08-05
    days on market $79,000 Active 151 DOM
44. 2026-08-04
    days on market $79,000 Active 150 DOM
45. 2026-08-03
    days on market $79,000 Active 149 DOM
46. 2026-07-31
    days on market $79,000 Active 146 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $79,000 Active 145 DOM
48. 2026-07-29
    days on market $79,000 Active 144 DOM
49. 2026-07-27
    days on market $79,000 Active 142 DOM
50. 2026-07-25
    days on market $79,000 Active 140 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,360
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,425
• − Property taxes: −$1,185
• − Insurance: −$395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,069
• − Management: −$1,069
• − HOA: −$4,980
• − Depreciation: −$2,298
• Taxable loss: −$2,061
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$495
• After-tax cash flow: $-482/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $5,585–$16,755 screening

This townhouse presents as a good investment opportunity with cosmetic updates needed to enhance its curb appeal and interior aesthetics.

Repairs flagged

• Minor kitchen cabinets — Light wear and tear
• Minor bathroom fixtures — Dated and worn
• Minor exterior siding — Some areas show wear

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting and updating kitchen cabinets — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Updating bathroom fixtures — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and creates a more inviting environment ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 20/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Shirley Elementary School F AR #419/454 Nat'l #38,100/41,679 High Shirley High School F AR #164/292 Nat'l #11,887/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shirley School District
• NCES district ID: 0512420
• Math proficiency: 44% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $36,296
• Composite: 37.98/100
• National rank: #8669
• State rank: #132 of 245 in AR

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Fairfield Bay

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #16778

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fairfield Bay, AR
• County: Van Buren · 15,459 people
• City population: 2,264
• Population (ZIP): 2,264
• Household income: $54,508
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 13% of renters

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Population outlook (Van Buren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,459 people
• By 2030: 14,645 · -5.3%
• By 2040: 12,918 · -16.4%
• By 2050: 11,263 · -27.1%
• By 2075: 7,870 · -49.1%
• By 2100: 4,918 · -68.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Iranian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Spanish 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Van Buren

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.2) · D 18.9% · R 79.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.5pp toward R · 2008: -31.7pp · 2024: -60.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.2 2020: R+56.9 2016: R+53.9 2012: R+39.5 2008: R+31.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.48%
• Current HPI: 238.2694
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

-0.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-06 Listed $98,900 CARMLS
• 2026-01-01 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2025-05-26 Listed $99,500 CARMLS