135 Hillview Dr #38 · Fairfield Bay, AR 72088

$84,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,117 sqft · Townhouse · 106 Days on market

Built 1975 Average condition 4,791 sqft lot $76/sqft · 22% below area Est $109k · 22% under $415/mo HOA · 21% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover Paradise in Fairfield Bay, AR: Your Private Pool Condo Awaits! Nestled in the Ozark Mountains on stunning Greers Ferry Lake, this exquisite condo boasts its own private pool for ultimate relaxation and exclusivity. Dive into resort-style living without leaving home! Join a vibrant community of full-time residents and resort guests who cherish the blend of serenity and excitement. Friendly neighbors, lively events, and a welcoming vibe make every day feel like vacation. Why Fairfield Bay? Endless amenities include: Boating, fishing, and water sports on 40,000-acre Greers Ferry Lake with full-service marina (400+ slips, rentals) Two 18-hole championship golf courses plus mini golf 90+ miles of ATV/UTV trails and 20+ miles of hiking/biking paths, including Sugar Loaf Mountain and Indian Rock Cave, 8 tennis courts, 3 resort pools, fitness center, bowling, disc golf, pickle ball Parks, playgrounds, library, restaurants, and conference center for all ages Condo life here means low-maintenance luxury: No yard work, shared amenities at your doorstep, and a secure, social environment. Focus on fun, not chores! Priced to sell—don't miss out! Contact us today to schedule a viewing.

Key facts

• Private pool
• Resort pools
• Greers ferry lake

Tags

• PRIVATE POOL
• GREERS FERRY LAKE
• CHAMPIONSHIP GOLF COURSES
• ATV TRAILS
• HIKING PATHS
• RESORT POOLS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $85k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $578 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $77k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.5% vs local median 5.7% in Fairfield Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#220 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Shirley School District (rural): math 44% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #132 of 245 in AR (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Shirley Elementary School (math 12% / reading 12%, grade F, #419 of 454 statewide, top 93%, 180 students, 100% FRL); Shirley High School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #164 of 292 statewide, top 61%, 139 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 73% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 20% at this address vs 43% district-wide (-24 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Shirley School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 264 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 16 units permitted in Van Buren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $183 of equity ($587 loan paydown + $-404 appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• Van Buren County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.

Recommended offer $77,259 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.19%
• DSCR: 2.30
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $108,969
• List price: $84,900
• Delta: -22.09%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
135 Hillview Dr #101	0.00mi	2/1.5	1,117 (0%)	1mo	$75,000	$67	99
135 Hillview Dr #116	0.00mi	2/1.5	1,117 (0%)	2mo	$98,000	$88	98
135 Hillview Dr #6	0.00mi	2/1.5	1,133 (+1%)	8mo	$98,000	$86	90
135 Hillview #52	0.00mi	2/1.5	1,117 (0%)	14mo	$89,000	$80	89
135 Hillview Dr #82	0.00mi	2/1.5	1,179 (+6%)	10mo	$79,900	$68	82
120 Shorthaven Ln	0.27mi	2/1.5	1,102 (-1%)	13mo	$125,000	$113	74
134 Richwood Dr #3	0.43mi	1/2.0 (-1)	1,095 (-2%)	1mo	$85,000	$78	69
118 Richwood Dr #49	0.32mi	2/2.0	1,218 (+9%)	2mo	$80,000	$66	66
125 Chelsea Dr #33	0.72mi	2/2.0	1,156 (+4%)	10mo	$185,000	$160	50
104 Chelsea Dr #42	0.58mi	2/2.5	1,066 (-5%)	14mo	$99,000	$93	49
134 Richwood Dr #12	0.43mi	2/2.0	1,272 (+14%)	13mo	$132,500	$104	44
134 Richwood Dr #11	0.43mi	1/2.0 (-1)	970 (-13%)	18mo	$89,500	$92	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.48% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.38×
• Total profit: $32,749
• Equity at exit: $22,649

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.62×
• Total profit: $86,158
• Equity at exit: $25,674

Cash invested: $23,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72088

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 264
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$445
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$106 /mo · $1,274/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$415
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $578

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,268

Max offer price $84,900

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $637	-5% $608	+0% $578	+5% $549	+10% $520
Rent	-10% $420	-5% $499	+0% $578	+5% $657	+10% $736
Rate	-1.0pp $621	-0.5pp $600	base $578	+0.5pp $556	+1.0pp $534

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,225
• Closing costs: $2,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
106 Set Ct Fairfield Bay, AR	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,000	$1.54	46d	1	0.78mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $415 · $4,980/yr
• Likely covers: waterlandscapingpoolgym

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $84,900 Active 106 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $84,900 Active 104 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   statusdays on market $84,900 Active 103 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $84,900 Price Change 102 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $84,900 Price Change 101 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $84,900 Price Change 100 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $84,900 Price Change 98 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   pricestatusdays on market $84,900 Price Change 97 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $98,900 Active 94 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $98,900 Active 93 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $98,900 Active 92 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $98,900 Active 91 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $98,900 Active 88 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $98,900 Active 87 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $98,900 Active 86 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $98,900 Active 85 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $98,900 Active 84 DOM
18. 2026-03-06
    listed $98,900 New Listing 1204-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1204 chars)

    Discover Paradise in Fairfield Bay, AR: Your Private Pool Condo Awaits! Nestled in the Ozark Mountains on stunning Greers Ferry Lake, this exquisite condo boasts its own private pool for ultimate relaxation and exclusivity. Dive into resort-style living without leaving home! Join a vibrant community of full-time residents and resort guests who cherish the blend of serenity and excitement. Friendly neighbors, lively events, and a welcoming vibe make every day feel like vacation. Why Fairfield Bay? Endless amenities include: Boating, fishing, and water sports on 40,000-acre Greers Ferry Lake with full-service marina (400+ slips, rentals) Two 18-hole championship golf courses plus mini golf 90+ miles of ATV/UTV trails and 20+ miles of hiking/biking paths, including Sugar Loaf Mountain and Indian Rock Cave, 8 tennis courts, 3 resort pools, fitness center, bowling, disc golf, pickle ball Parks, playgrounds, library, restaurants, and conference center for all ages Condo life here means low-maintenance luxury: No yard work, shared amenities at your doorstep, and a secure, social environment. Focus on fun, not chores! Priced to sell—don't miss out! Contact us today to schedule a viewing.

19. 2026-01-01
    historical
20. 2025-05-26
    listed $99,500 New Listing

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,756
• − Property taxes: −$1,274
• − Insurance: −$424
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − HOA: −$4,980
• − Depreciation: −$2,470
• Taxable income: $6,256
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,502
• After-tax cash flow: $5,438/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab

This townhouse presents as a good investment opportunity with cosmetic updates needed to enhance its curb appeal and interior aesthetics.

Repairs flagged

• Minor kitchen cabinets — Light wear and tear
• Minor bathroom fixtures — Dated and worn
• Minor exterior siding — Some areas show wear

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting and updating kitchen cabinets — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Updating bathroom fixtures — Improves functionality and aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and creates a more inviting environment

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · Light wear and tear	Minor	$500–3,000
bathroom fixtures · Dated and worn	Minor	$500–3,000
exterior siding · Some areas show wear	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$1,500–9,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting and updating kitchen cabinets — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Updating bathroom fixtures — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and creates a more inviting environment ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shirley School District
• NCES district ID: 0512420
• Math proficiency: 44% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $36,296
• Composite: 37.98/100
• National rank: #8669
• State rank: #132 of 245 in AR

Livability — Fairfield Bay

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #16778

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fairfield Bay, AR
• City population: 2,264
• Population (ZIP): 2,264

Population outlook (Van Buren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,459 people
• By 2030: 14,645 · -5.3%
• By 2040: 12,918 · -16.4%
• By 2050: 11,263 · -27.1%
• By 2075: 7,870 · -49.1%
• By 2100: 4,918 · -68.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Iranian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Van Buren

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.2) · D 18.9% · R 79.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.5pp toward R · 2008: -31.7pp · 2024: -60.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.2 2020: R+56.9 2016: R+53.9 2012: R+39.5 2008: R+31.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.48%
• Current HPI: 238.2694
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

-0.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-06 Listed $98,900 CARMLS
• 2026-01-01 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2025-05-26 Listed $99,500 CARMLS