4538 San Francisco Ave · St. Louis, MO 63115

$68,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1880 4,011 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Loads of updates to this charming brick 2 story with great covered porch. 2 large bedrooms on the second floor and 3rd upstairs. 2 full baths (one on main and one on second floor) Kitchen has oak cabinets, formica counters, side-by-side refrigerator, electric range/hood and double bowl stainless sink. The basement is divided into 2 rooms with the back room for laundry, furnace, water heater and walkout to the level back yard. Additional storage in storage shed and parking pad as well. Roof-2017, Windows-2007, Electric service-2007, Furnace-2015, Air conditioner-2015, Water heater-2008, Plumbing-completely redone in 2008, updated kitchen in 2022, Updated Kitchen floor, new fridge 2015. Bathroom finishes-tub, tile, shower, faucet updates in 2020 and 2022. Sewer pipe under basement floor—scoped and videoed with clear result is 2/22. As-Is.

Key facts

• Fenced yard
• Newer roof
• Walk-out basement

Tags

• WALK-OUT BASEMENT
• OFF-STREET PARKING
• FENCED YARD
• NEWER ROOF
• HVAC SYSTEM

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: No second mortgage reported

Exterior

• Parking: One carport space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service by Ameren; Electricity and natural gas available and connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels; Residential property
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Back yard

Interior

• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms, both on the main level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Basement with poured walls (8+ ft)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $68k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $400 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $68k).
• Recommended offer: $67k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.4% vs local median 5.0% in St. Louis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Louis City (urban): math 10% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #312 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hickey Elem. (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #1,072 of 1,115 statewide, top 98%, 273 students, 99% FRL); Sumner High (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #520 of 521 statewide, top 100%, 264 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 80% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 97 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 294 units permitted in St. Louis city in 2024 (227 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $470 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Louis County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($67k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $68k implies a 51% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $66,980 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.24%
• DSCR: 2.12
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $34,560
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4472 Natural Bridge Ave	0.15mi	2/1.0	1,338 (+4%)	9mo	$25,000	$19	78
4533 Lexington Ave	0.15mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,175 (-8%)	3mo	$105,900	$90	72
4416 San Francisco Ave	0.23mi	2/1.5	1,167 (-9%)	6mo	$29,900	$26	68
4400 San Francisco Ave	0.26mi	2/1.0	1,167 (-9%)	8mo	$7,000	$6	67
4814 Calvin Ave	0.62mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,257 (-2%)	8mo	$20,000	$16	56
4843 Lee Ave	0.49mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,170 (-9%)	2mo	$71,500	$61	56
4430 Sexauer Ave	0.65mi	2/1.0	1,212 (-5%)	6mo	$64,500	$53	56
4853 Lee Ave	0.51mi	2/1.0	1,092 (-15%)	3mo	$29,900	$27	49
4470 Dryden Ave	0.69mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,323 (+3%)	8mo	$21,500	$16	47
4941 Lexington Ave	0.65mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,240 (-3%)	11mo	$124,900	$101	47
4514 Bircher Blvd	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,222 (-4%)	4mo	$30,000	$25	46
4250 E Kossuth Ave	0.58mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,100 (-14%)	4mo	$70,000	$64	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.76×
• Total profit: $14,467
• Equity at exit: $10,139

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.38×
• Total profit: $45,356
• Equity at exit: $5,879

Cash invested: $19,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63115

• Home prices YoY: -2.6%
• Active inventory: 97
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,027 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$357
• Tax from tax record: −$26 /mo · $308/yr
• Insurance: −$28
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$216
• Net cashflow: $400

Break-even live

Break-even rent $520

Max offer price $68,000

Occupancy floor 56%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,000
• Closing costs: $2,040
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4642 Farlin Ave Unit 1F St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1056	$800	$0.76	43d	1	0.17mi
4497 Lee Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1012	$1,000	$0.99	16d	1	0.30mi
4040 Shreve Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1201	$1,250	$1.04	43d	1	0.33mi
4493 Bessie Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	880	$1,250	$1.42	43d	1	0.41mi
4847 Calvin Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,473	$1.47	2d	1	0.64mi
4223 Red Bud Ave Unit 1F St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1167	$895	$0.77	43d	1	0.67mi
4426 Holly Ave Unit B St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,100	$1.10	14d	1	0.72mi
4460 Bircher Blvd Saint Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	1100	$725	$0.66	10d	1	0.77mi
4247 Maffitt Ave St. Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1700	$1,000	$0.59	4d	1	0.86mi
4919 Thekla Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	931	$700	$0.75	43d	1	0.97mi
2603 Belle Glade Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	945	$800	$0.85	4d	1	1.06mi
1708 Annie Malone Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	924	$1,500	$1.62	43d	1	1.21mi
2831 Abner Pl Unit 7 St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	968	$1,250	$1.29	23d	1	1.33mi
4202 Gano Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1650	$1,168	$0.71	23d	1	1.37mi
5338 Claxton Ave Unit 33 St. Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1196	$1,550	$1.30	43d	1	1.41mi
1232 N Euclid Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	982	$1,395	$1.42	43d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $68,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $68,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $68,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $68,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $68,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $68,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $68,000 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $68,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $68,000 Active 2 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    remarks 407-char remark
11. 2026-06-02
    listed $68,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $308 · $26/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $660 · $55/mo
• Expected delta: +$351/yr (+$29/mo · 113.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,321
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,809
• − Property taxes: −$308
• − Insurance: −$340
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$986
• − Management: −$986
• − Depreciation: −$1,978
• Taxable income: $3,914
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$939
• After-tax cash flow: $3,866/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Louis City
• NCES district ID: 2929280
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,685
• Composite: 11.54/100
• National rank: #9699
• State rank: #312 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Louis

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Louis, MO
• County: Saint Louis City · 254,015 people
• City population: 283,259
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 14,488
• Household income: $30,622
• Rent vs Own: 57.7% rent · 42.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1655.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 315,737 people
• By 2030: 313,865 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 305,439 · -3.3%
• By 2050: 296,529 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 271,028 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 255,359 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 95% White 2% Two or more races 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.7) · D 81.4% · R 16.7% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.5pp toward R · 2008: 68.2pp · 2024: 64.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.7 2020: D+66.2 2016: D+63.7 2012: D+66.6 2008: D+68.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.42%
• Current HPI: 127.3403
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+4.6% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $68,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $73,400 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $73,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-22 Price Changed $73,700 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $73,800 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $73,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-21 Price Changed $74,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $74,100 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $74,200 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $74,400 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $74,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $74,600 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-02 Price Changed $74,700 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-29 Price Changed $74,800 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-19 Price Changed $74,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-29 Listed $75,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-17 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 2023-03-16 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-15 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-24 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-17 Listed $45,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-10-10 Sold (Public Records) $19,000 Public Records
• 2004-12-28 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2000-01-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $308 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.