29129 Johnston Rd #2545 · San Antonio, FL 33523

$150,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 248 Days on market

Built 1983 7,980 sqft lot Est $232k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Discover comfort, convenience, and an active lifestyle in this beautifully maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom home located in a vibrant 55+ resort-style community. Thoughtfully designed for easy living, this home features spacious walk-in closets in both bedrooms, generous storage throughout, and an enclosed sunroom perfect for relaxing or enjoying your morning coffee. The home offers excellent accessibility with easy outdoor access, a large storage shed/workshop, and an extra-long driveway complete with an RV pad and carport ideal for guests or your own recreational needs. Step outside and enjoy all the amenities this friendly, active adult community has to offer, including a pristine 9-hole

Key facts

• Enclosed sunroom
• Walk-in closets
• Carport

Tags

• WALK-IN CLOSETS
• ENCLOSED SUNROOM
• LARGE STORAGE SHED
• RV PAD
• CARPORT
• SWIMMING POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located on a cul-de-sac, near a golf course; paved roads; Lot about 0.18 acres; Zoned RMH
• HOA & community: Deed restrictions; Golf carts allowed; Community golf; Community pool; Tennis courts; Pickleball court(s); Shuffleboard court; Street lights; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: RV access/parking; Tandem parking; Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Broadband/High-speed internet available; Cable available; Electricity connected; Phone available; Water connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); One story; Faces south
• Construction: Metal siding; Membrane roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built in approximately one building area totaling 1,908 sq ft (living area 1,152 sq ft)
• Exterior features: Enclosed patio; Side porch; Awning(s); Rain gutters; Sidewalk; Storage; Workshop; Exterior wheelchair lift

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in oven; Cooktop; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Freezer
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Built-in features; Ceiling fans; Dry bar; Living room/dining room combo; Thermostat; Walk-in closet(s); Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry inside, in kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $254 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 3.4% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#454 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 295 active listings in the ZIP; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 248 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $150k implies a 88% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 248 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.26%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $231,552
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
29129 Johnston Rd #2547	0.02mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,224 (+6%)	3mo	$190,000	$155	81
16855 Old Johnston Rd	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,196 (+4%)	11mo	$240,000	$201	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.33×
• Total profit: $97,895
• Equity at exit: $135,132

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.7%
• Equity multiple: 7.56×
• Total profit: $275,598
• Equity at exit: $291,417

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33523

• Home prices YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 295
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,622 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$179 /mo · $2,143/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $254

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,301

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $150,000 Pending 248 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $150,000 Active 246 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $150,000 Active 245 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $150,000 Active 244 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $150,000 Active 243 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $150,000 Active 242 DOM
7. 2026-05-11
   price $150,000
8. 2026-03-14
   status Active
9. 2026-02-27
   historical
10. 2026-02-11
    status Active
11. 2026-01-30
    status Pending
12. 2025-11-14
    price $160,000
13. 2025-09-04
    listed $165,000 Active
14. 2011-05-20
    soldstatus $80,000
15. 1995-08-04
    soldstatus $50,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,143 · $179/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,143 · $179/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,470
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,143
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,558
• − Management: −$1,558
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $696
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$167
• After-tax cash flow: $2,882/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #454
• US rank: #8221

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 21,077
• Population (ZIP): 19,296

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 10% Two or more races 10% Native American 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.36%
• Current HPI: 448.7
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+200.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $150,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-14 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-27 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-11 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-30 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-14 Price Changed $160,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-04 Listed $165,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-05-20 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 1995-08-04 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,143 · +412.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.