21511 Briar Oak Dr · Spring, TX 77338

$220,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,511 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 43 Days on market

Built 1984 0.53 ac lot $88/sqft · 13% below area Est $252k · 13% under $20/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.2/15.0
• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• Appreciation +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

1+ ACRE LOT! This custom home is a must see. Open concept, Large Gourmet Kitchen with custom cabinets and granite counter tops with travertine backsplash, separate dining room and breakfast room. Huge living room great for entertaining with large bay windows and chimney. Large master bedroom has trey ceilings and large walk in closet. Master bath has deal sinks and shower. Love the outdoors come see this covered patio with custom wood ceiling overlooking your large 1 acre lot!

Key facts

• Large lot
• Covered patio
• Mature trees

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• MATURE TREES
• COVERED PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Amberwood HOA with an annual fee of $240

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Driveway; Additional parking
• Utilities: Well water; Septic sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Faces east; Entry on slab foundation
• Construction: Built in 1984; Brick, cement siding, vinyl siding, and wood siding construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 3 total rooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Kitchen/dining combo; Gas log fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-33 ($-402/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $214k (2.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (6.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $205k (6.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.5% in Spring — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#635 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Aldine ISD (suburban): math 16% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #790 of 826 in TX (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Jones Middle (math 16% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,428 of 1,662 statewide, top 87%, 1,348 students, 86% FRL); Nimitz H S (math 17% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,385 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 2,772 students, 85% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 306 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.8%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($213k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $205,321 (6.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.65%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $251,841
• List price: $220,000
• Delta: -12.64%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21410 Briar Oak Dr	0.13mi	3/2.5	2,507 (-0%)	11mo	$329,000	$131	85
21502 Whispering Pnes	0.14mi	3/2.0	2,205 (-12%)	7mo	$379,000	$172	65
21031 Neva Ct	0.49mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,409 (-4%)	4mo	$245,500	$102	62
7610 Retama Terrace Ln	0.67mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,594 (+3%)	2mo	$269,500	$104	56
21126 Arcadia Park Ln	0.45mi	3/2.5	2,289 (-9%)	10mo	$221,000	$97	56
7242 Fox Hall Ln	0.66mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,433 (-3%)	8mo	$240,000	$99	53
20818 Teton Mil Dr	0.68mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,550 (+2%)	10mo	$279,779	$110	52
21310 Fox Burrow Trl	0.66mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,426 (-3%)	9mo	$275,000	$113	51
20938 Fox Trot Ct	0.56mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,724 (+8%)	9mo	$220,000	$81	47
7247 Foxshadows Ln	0.71mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,391 (-5%)	8mo	$285,000	$119	47
7210 Fox Hall Ln	0.72mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,695 (+7%)	6mo	$239,900	$89	42
8122 Old Maple Ln	0.71mi	3/2.0	2,202 (-12%)	11mo	$205,000	$93	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.77% appreciation · 2.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-18,041
• Equity at exit: $55,493

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-4,597
• Equity at exit: $60,331

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77338

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 306
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,053 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$390 /mo · $4,682/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$20
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$431
• Net cashflow: $-33

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,096

Max offer price $214,084

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21235 Grand Field Ct Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	1750	$1,800	$1.03	43d	1	0.28mi
20735 Fox Cliff Ln Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	2404	$2,175	$0.90	43d	1	0.77mi
8419 Opalwood Ln Unit Main Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	2084	$2,482	$1.19	18d	1	0.80mi
19931 Arrowsmith Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	2264	$1,831	$0.81	24d	1	1.05mi
6707 Level Pond Ln Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2927	$2,316	$0.79	22d	1	1.09mi
7318 Foxway Ln Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1750	$1,759	$1.01	24d	1	1.15mi
20527 Faith Millstream Dr Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	2178	$2,100	$0.96	43d	1	1.25mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $20 · $240/yr

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $220,000 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $220,000 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $220,000 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $220,000 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $220,000 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $220,000 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $220,000 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $220,000 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $220,000 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $220,000 Active 29 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $220,000 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $220,000 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $220,000 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $220,000 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-06
    listed $245,000 Active 394-char remark
16. 2016-11-23
    soldstatus Sold 482-char remark

    Show marketing remark (482 chars)

    1+ ACRE LOT! This custom home is a must see. Open concept, Large Gourmet Kitchen with custom cabinets and granite counter tops with travertine backsplash, separate dining room and breakfast room. Huge living room great for entertaining with large bay windows and chimney. Large master bedroom has trey ceilings and large walk in closet. Master bath has deal sinks and shower. Love the outdoors come see this covered patio with custom wood ceiling overlooking your large 1 acre lot!

17. 2016-11-17
    status Pending 482-char remark

    Show marketing remark (482 chars)

    1+ ACRE LOT! This custom home is a must see. Open concept, Large Gourmet Kitchen with custom cabinets and granite counter tops with travertine backsplash, separate dining room and breakfast room. Huge living room great for entertaining with large bay windows and chimney. Large master bedroom has trey ceilings and large walk in closet. Master bath has deal sinks and shower. Love the outdoors come see this covered patio with custom wood ceiling overlooking your large 1 acre lot!

18. 2016-11-07
    status Option Pending 482-char remark

    Show marketing remark (482 chars)

    1+ ACRE LOT! This custom home is a must see. Open concept, Large Gourmet Kitchen with custom cabinets and granite counter tops with travertine backsplash, separate dining room and breakfast room. Huge living room great for entertaining with large bay windows and chimney. Large master bedroom has trey ceilings and large walk in closet. Master bath has deal sinks and shower. Love the outdoors come see this covered patio with custom wood ceiling overlooking your large 1 acre lot!

19. 2016-09-12
    price $225,000 482-char remark

    Show marketing remark (482 chars)

    1+ ACRE LOT! This custom home is a must see. Open concept, Large Gourmet Kitchen with custom cabinets and granite counter tops with travertine backsplash, separate dining room and breakfast room. Huge living room great for entertaining with large bay windows and chimney. Large master bedroom has trey ceilings and large walk in closet. Master bath has deal sinks and shower. Love the outdoors come see this covered patio with custom wood ceiling overlooking your large 1 acre lot!

20. 2016-08-15
    status Active 482-char remark

    Show marketing remark (482 chars)

    1+ ACRE LOT! This custom home is a must see. Open concept, Large Gourmet Kitchen with custom cabinets and granite counter tops with travertine backsplash, separate dining room and breakfast room. Huge living room great for entertaining with large bay windows and chimney. Large master bedroom has trey ceilings and large walk in closet. Master bath has deal sinks and shower. Love the outdoors come see this covered patio with custom wood ceiling overlooking your large 1 acre lot!

21. 2016-08-06
    status Option Pending 482-char remark

    Show marketing remark (482 chars)

    1+ ACRE LOT! This custom home is a must see. Open concept, Large Gourmet Kitchen with custom cabinets and granite counter tops with travertine backsplash, separate dining room and breakfast room. Huge living room great for entertaining with large bay windows and chimney. Large master bedroom has trey ceilings and large walk in closet. Master bath has deal sinks and shower. Love the outdoors come see this covered patio with custom wood ceiling overlooking your large 1 acre lot!

22. 2016-06-25
    listed $249,900 Active 482-char remark

    Show marketing remark (482 chars)

    1+ ACRE LOT! This custom home is a must see. Open concept, Large Gourmet Kitchen with custom cabinets and granite counter tops with travertine backsplash, separate dining room and breakfast room. Huge living room great for entertaining with large bay windows and chimney. Large master bedroom has trey ceilings and large walk in closet. Master bath has deal sinks and shower. Love the outdoors come see this covered patio with custom wood ceiling overlooking your large 1 acre lot!

23. 2016-06-22
    historical
24. 2016-06-14
    price $245,000
25. 2016-05-01
    price $254,999
26. 2016-03-21
    price $265,000
27. 2016-01-21
    listed $285,000 Active
28. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,682 · $390/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,682 · $390/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,639
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$4,682
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,971
• − Management: −$1,971
• − HOA: −$240
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$4,049
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$972
• After-tax cash flow: $570/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aldine ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807710
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $37,081
• Composite: 15.42/100
• National rank: #9317
• State rank: #790 of 826 in TX

Livability — Spring

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #635
• US rank: #12101

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 430,529
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 48,031
• Household income: $64,755
• Rent vs Own: 52.5% rent · 47.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2620.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 41% Black 34% Two or more races 18% White 16% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Armenian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 60% English-only · Spanish 35% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.77%
• Current HPI: 245.7087
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.17%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-22.8% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $220,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $245,000 HARMLS
• 2016-11-23 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2016-11-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2016-11-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2016-09-12 Price Changed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2016-08-15 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2016-08-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2016-06-25 Listed $249,900 HARMLS
• 2016-06-22 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2016-06-14 Price Changed $245,000 HARMLS
• 2016-05-01 Price Changed $254,999 HARMLS
• 2016-03-21 Price Changed $265,000 HARMLS
• 2016-01-21 Listed $285,000 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,682 · -3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.