221 Main St · Roy, MT 59471

$125,000

1 bd · 2.0 ba · 608 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 52 Days on market

Built 1994 10,454 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• Built 1994
• Listed 51 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas available
• Home design: Manufactured home; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Metal roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Wood heating
• Interior features: Refrigerator; 7 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-90 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $109k (12.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $81k (34.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $81k (34.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#227 in MT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, schools B+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Roy K-12 Schools (rural): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #94 of 116 in MT (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Fergus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $396 appreciation (0.3% local appreciation)).
• Fergus County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $81,416 (34.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.08%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.32% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-7,577
• Equity at exit: $38,286

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $4,298
• Equity at exit: $47,641

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Montana: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; no rent control; preempted; rural-skewed market.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 59471

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 7
• Price-to-rent: 12.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $814 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$25 /mo · $305/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$171
• Net cashflow: $-90

Break-even live

Break-even rent $928

Max offer price $109,128

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-19	-5% $-54	+0% $-90	+5% $-125	+10% $-161
Rent	-10% $-154	-5% $-122	+0% $-90	+5% $-58	+10% $-26
Rate	-1.0pp $-27	-0.5pp $-58	base $-90	+0.5pp $-122	+1.0pp $-155

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $125,000 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $125,000 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 44 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $125,000 Active 43 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $125,000 Active 39 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $125,000 Active 36 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $125,000 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 33 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 32 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 31 DOM
17. 2026-04-30
    listed $125,000 Active 208-char remark
18. 1999-03-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MT · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $305 · $25/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,050 · $88/mo
• Expected delta: +$745/yr (+$62/mo · 244.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone D · 39% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 5 d/yr ≥93°F today · 10 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,770
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$305
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$782
• − Management: −$782
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$3,362
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$807
• After-tax cash flow: $-271/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Roy K-12 Schools
• NCES district ID: 3023160
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -25.00%
• Median HH income: $44,885
• Composite: 21.57/100
• National rank: #8307
• State rank: #94 of 116 in MT

Livability — Roy

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #227
• US rank: #19359

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D- Housing F Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Roy, MT
• Population (ZIP): 316

Population outlook (Fergus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,955 people
• By 2030: 10,722 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 10,274 · -6.2%
• By 2050: 9,993 · -8.8%
• By 2075: 10,766 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 10,922 · -0.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 11% Black 2% Native American 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Romanian 2% Scottish 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fergus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.3) · D 22.7% · R 74.0% · Other 3.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -34.9pp · 2024: -51.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.3 2020: R+51.6 2016: R+52.6 2012: R+43.3 2008: R+34.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Current HPI: 232.0194
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.41%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology / Analytics	1	$2B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Listed $125,000 HHLMLS
• 1999-03-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $305 · -29.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.