806 Wagtail Dr · Wylie, TX 75407

$203,749

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,535 sqft · SingleFamily · 127 Days on market

Built 2025 4,008 sqft lot Est $244k · 17% under $41/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.9/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

LENNAR - Tillage Farms -Cibola Floorplan - The first floor of this two-story home is host to an open floorplan that combines a fully-equipped kitchen with the living and dining areas to maximize the footprint of the home. There are four bedrooms located upstairs, including the luxe owner’s suite, which is positioned at the back of the home for enhanced privacy and comfort. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Open floorplan
• Enhanced privacy
• Luxe owner suite

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• FULLY-EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• LUXE OWNER SUITE
• ENHANCED PRIVACY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $204k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $136 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (1.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $179k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 4.0% in Wylie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#419 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Princeton ISD (suburban): math 51% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #188 of 826 in TX (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mayfield El (609 students, 73% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 56% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1409 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 127 days — a 12% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $179,299 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 127 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.86%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $244,065
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
810 Wagtail Dr	0.00mi	4/2.5	1,535 (0%)	2mo	$238,369	$155	99
6314 Sandpiper Ln	0.13mi	4/2.5	1,535 (0%)	1mo	$207,999	$136	94
6100 Pinion Trl	0.23mi	4/2.5	1,549 (+1%)	1mo	$237,490	$153	87
724 Wagtail Dr	0.05mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,360 (-11%)	2mo	$195,999	$144	72
6110 Pinion Trl	0.23mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,419 (-8%)	1mo	$229,990	$162	71
6308 Sandpiper Ln	0.12mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,360 (-11%)	1mo	$217,999	$160	70
6412 Longspur Ln	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-9%)	0mo	$222,999	$159	62
6508 Glade St	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-9%)	1mo	$222,999	$159	61
6413 Longspur Ln	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,411 (-8%)	1mo	$215,000	$152	61
416 Sandhill Crane Ln	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-9%)	0mo	$221,999	$158	60
6414 Willet Rd	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-9%)	1mo	$252,999	$180	59
403 Shearwater Ave	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-9%)	2mo	$253,674	$181	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-30,170
• Equity at exit: $30,380

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-37,606
• Equity at exit: $17,616

Cash invested: $57,050 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75407

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 1409
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,007 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,068
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$255 /mo · $3,056/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$41
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $136

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,834

Max offer price $203,749

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $277	-5% $207	+0% $136	+5% $66	+10% $-5
Rent	-10% $-22	-5% $57	+0% $136	+5% $215	+10% $295
Rate	-1.0pp $239	-0.5pp $188	base $136	+0.5pp $83	+1.0pp $30

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,937
• Closing costs: $6,112
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
801 Wagtail Dr , TX	4.0	2.5	1535	$1,975	$1.29	8d	1	0.03mi
803 Wagtail Dr , TX	3.0	2.5	1360	$1,605	$1.18	23d	1	0.03mi
724 Wagtail Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1360	$1,675	$1.23	4d	1	0.03mi
724 Wagtail Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1360	$1,650	$1.21	0d	1	0.03mi
721 Wagtail Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1535	$1,600	$1.04	25d	1	0.05mi
812 Sandhill Crane Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1309	$1,850	$1.41	45d	1	0.06mi
6225 Kingfisher Way Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1290	$1,625	$1.26	6d	1	0.07mi
732 Sandhill Crane Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1570	$1,875	$1.19	13d	1	0.07mi
6313 Kingfisher Way Princeton, TX	3.0	3.0	1360	$1,650	$1.21	45d	1	0.09mi
6311 Whimbrel Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1535	$1,775	$1.16	0d	1	0.09mi
6222 Sandpiper Ln Unit NA Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1400	$1,750	$1.25	8d	1	0.10mi
905 Blue Heron Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1535	$1,775	$1.16	25d	1	0.11mi
905 Blue Heron Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1535	$1,775	$1.16	23d	1	0.11mi
6310 Sandpiper Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1549	$2,030	$1.31	13d	1	0.11mi
904 Sandhill Crane Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1600	$1,750	$1.09	45d	1	0.11mi
914 Sandhill Crane Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1189	$1,775	$1.49	8d	1	0.12mi
911 Sandhill Crane Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1360	$1,575	$1.16	45d	1	0.12mi
935 Sandhill Crane Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1189	$1,999	$1.68	20d	1	0.14mi
919 Blue Heron Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1535	$1,775	$1.16	45d	1	0.14mi
919 Blue Heron Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1535	$1,700	$1.11	19d	1	0.14mi
926 Wood Stork Way Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1285	$1,700	$1.32	25d	1	0.16mi
6234 Sanderling St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1535	$1,725	$1.12	45d	1	0.20mi
6102 Pinion Trl , TX	3.0	2.5	1419	$1,600	$1.13	45d	1	0.22mi
623 Linden Rd Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1419	$1,650	$1.16	45d	1	0.22mi
6015 Pinion Trl , TX	4.0	2.5	1615	$1,950	$1.21	45d	1	0.23mi
600 Sandhill Crane Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$2,100	$1.50	14d	1	0.23mi
6018 Primrose Rd , TX	3.0–4.0	2.5	1484	$1,875	$1.26	4d	5	0.26mi
6505 Glade St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,800	$1.12	45d	1	0.36mi
416 Finch CIR Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,350	$1.07	45d	1	0.38mi
613 Holleman Dr , TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,800	$1.43	0d	1	0.41mi
427 Bower DR Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,850	$1.16	25d	1	0.44mi
545 Holleman Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,750	$1.19	45d	1	0.45mi
656 Waymaker Way Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	2015	$2,175	$1.08	0d	1	0.45mi
656 Waymaker Way Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	2015	$2,175	$1.08	13d	1	0.45mi
538 Montclair Ave Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,775	$1.41	11d	1	0.47mi
639 Montclair Ave , TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$2,100	$1.23	45d	1	0.51mi
639 Montclair Ave , TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,850	$1.08	0d	1	0.51mi
639 Montclair Ave , TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,850	$1.08	8d	1	0.51mi
241 Boxberry Way Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,725	$1.22	45d	1	0.56mi
6744 Teal Cir Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,790	$1.21	22d	1	0.57mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $41 · $492/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-03-17
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-21
   status Active
3. 2026-02-14
   status Pending
4. 2025-11-26
   price $203,749
5. 2025-11-10
   price $204,749
6. 2025-11-03
   listed $207,749 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,079
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,413
• − Property taxes: −$3,056
• − Insurance: −$1,019
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,926
• − Management: −$1,926
• − HOA: −$492
• − Depreciation: −$5,927
• Taxable loss: −$1,681
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$403
• After-tax cash flow: $2,037/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Princeton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835850
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,827
• Composite: 42.44/100
• National rank: #3226
• State rank: #188 of 826 in TX

Livability — Wylie

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #419
• US rank: #8623

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 69,325
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,171
• Household income: $100,037
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 368.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 30% Black 17% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Mexico
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.99%
• Current HPI: 238.9373
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.02%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-02-21 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-02-14 Pending — NTREIS
• 2025-11-26 Price Changed $203,749 NTREIS
• 2025-11-10 Price Changed $204,749 NTREIS
• 2025-11-03 Listed $207,749 NTREIS