2815 Mimosa St #3 · Mission, TX 78574

$129,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,209 sqft · SingleFamily · 128 Days on market

Built 2008 Good condition 0.47 ac lot $107/sqft · 42% below area Est $222k · 42% under $273/mo HOA · 19% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Very nice and elegant condo with an open concept, at first floor, Sharyland ISD schools. Granite counter tops at kitchen and restrooms, stainless steel refrigerator, stove, micro and dishwasher. All tile, with washer and dryer connections. Water and trash included. Is a gated community and the condo has two parking spaces.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Open concept
• Two parking spaces

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT
• GRANITE COUNTER TOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL REFRIGERATOR
• GATED COMMUNITY
• TWO PARKING SPACES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $129k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-36 ($-435/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $124k (4.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $129k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.5% in Mission — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#148 in TX, #4,155 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Sharyland ISD (urban): math 34% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #406 of 826 in TX (top 49%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 474 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 65% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 96% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.20%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $221,770
• List price: $129,000
• Delta: -41.83%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5021 Sequoia Ave	0.27mi	2/2.0	1,334 (+10%)	3mo	$225,000	$169	68
2106 N 49th Ln	0.43mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,361 (+13%)	23mo	$244,900	$180	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-23,023
• Equity at exit: $19,234

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-22,252
• Equity at exit: $11,154

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78574

• Home prices YoY: -16.1%
• Active inventory: 474
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,428 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$161 /mo · $1,935/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$273
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $-36

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,474

Max offer price $123,754

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2815 Mimosa St Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	1154	$1,088	$0.94	14d	1	0.01mi
2715 Mimosa St #12 Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,350	$0.96	14d	1	0.04mi
2705 Mimosa St #8 Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	1245	$1,480	$1.19	43d	1	0.06mi
4725 Mulberry Ave Unit 3 McAllen, TX	2.0	2.0	928	$1,250	$1.35	43d	1	0.37mi
4729 Magnolia Ave Unit 4 McAllen, TX	2.0	2.0	954	$1,300	$1.36	43d	1	0.38mi
4705 Mulberry Ave Unit 3 McAllen, TX	2.0	2.0	954	$1,200	$1.26	43d	1	0.44mi
4701 Mulberry Ave Unit 3 McAllen, TX	2.0	2.0	954	$1,250	$1.31	21d	1	0.45mi
4217 La Vista Ave Unit 2 McAllen, TX	3.0	2.0	1030	$1,300	$1.26	43d	1	0.57mi
2614 E Solar Dr Mission, TX	3.0	2.5	1492	$3,000	$2.01	23d	1	0.63mi
4305 Walnut Ave Unit 5 McAllen, TX	1.0	1.0	900	$920	$1.02	14d	1	0.75mi
4216 Walnut Ave Unit 3 McAllen, TX	3.0	2.0	1020	$1,375	$1.35	43d	1	0.77mi
4305 Walnut Ave Unit 3 McAllen, TX	2.0	2.0	900	$1,250	$1.39	43d	1	0.78mi
4305 Walnut Ave Unit 1 McAllen, TX	3.0	2.0	1148	$1,250	$1.09	23d	1	0.78mi
4116 Walnut Ave Unit 1 McAllen, TX	2.0	2.0	950	$1,025	$1.08	14d	1	0.89mi
3908 Walnut Ave Unit 3 McAllen, TX	2.0	2.0	850	$1,195	$1.41	43d	1	0.90mi
4104 Walnut Ave Unit 4 McAllen, TX	2.0	2.0	950	$1,125	$1.18	14d	1	0.94mi
2510 E U.S. Business 83 Unit 8 Mission, TX	2.0	1.5	940	$800	$0.85	14d	1	1.02mi
103 S 48th Ln #3 McAllen, TX	3.0	2.5	1272	$1,400	$1.10	14d	1	1.04mi
103 S 48th Ln #3 McAllen, TX	3.0	2.5	1272	$1,500	$1.18	43d	1	1.04mi
1901 N Glasscock Rd Unit 150 Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	800	$850	$1.06	43d	1	1.08mi
116 S 49th St #1 McAllen, TX	3.0	2.5	1206	$1,400	$1.16	43d	1	1.08mi
804 N Taylor Rd Unit 34 Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	1020	$850	$0.83	43d	1	1.08mi
804 N Taylor Rd Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	1020	$850	$0.83	43d	1	1.08mi
4517 W Fern Ave McAllen, TX	2.0	2.0	840	$1,000	$1.19	43d	1	1.08mi
115 S 48th Ln Unit 2 McAllen, TX	2.0	2.5	1250	$1,200	$0.96	43d	1	1.09mi
1901 N Glasscock Rd Lot 61 Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	960	$526	$0.55	19d	1	1.12mi
1901 N Glasscock Rd Unit 17-A Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	924	$950	$1.03	43d	1	1.12mi
214 S 48th Ln Unit 1 McAllen, TX	2.0	2.5	1190	$1,000	$0.84	43d	1	1.15mi
213 S 49th St Unit 4 McAllen, TX	2.0	2.5	1225	$1,350	$1.10	23d	1	1.16mi
415 N 38th St McAllen, TX	2.0	1.0	936	$800	$0.85	43d	1	1.19mi
4216 Walnut Ave Unit 4 McAllen, TX	2.0	2.0	831	$1,275	$1.53	43d	1	1.19mi
4220 Walnut Ave Unit 2 McAllen, TX	3.0	2.0	1020	$1,375	$1.35	43d	1	1.19mi
3800 Westway Ave McAllen, TX	3.0	2.0	1443	$1,775	$1.23	43d	1	1.20mi
3800 Westway Ave McAllen, TX	3.0	2.0	1443	$1,950	$1.35	14d	1	1.20mi
4105 La Vista Ave Unit 1 McAllen, TX	2.0	2.0	841	$1,100	$1.31	43d	1	1.21mi
4208 La Vista Ave Unit 3 McAllen, TX	2.0	2.0	826	$1,075	$1.30	23d	1	1.21mi
400 S 49th St Unit 2 McAllen, TX	2.0	2.5	1080	$950	$0.88	43d	1	1.22mi
400 S 49th St Unit 4 McAllen, TX	3.0	2.5	1080	$1,100	$1.02	43d	1	1.22mi
401 S 49th St Unit 3 McAllen, TX	2.0	2.5	1100	$1,100	$1.00	43d	1	1.24mi
3812 Camellia Ave McAllen, TX	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	43d	1	1.28mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $273 · $3,276/yr
• Likely covers: watertrashsecurity

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $129,000 Active 128 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $129,000 Active 127 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $129,000 Active 126 DOM
4. 2026-01-24
   listed $129,000 Active 324-char remark

   Show marketing remark (324 chars)

   Very nice and elegant condo with an open concept, at first floor, Sharyland ISD schools. Granite counter tops at kitchen and restrooms, stainless steel refrigerator, stove, micro and dishwasher. All tile, with washer and dryer connections. Water and trash included. Is a gated community and the condo has two parking spaces.

5. 2025-05-02
   historical $1,250
6. 2025-02-11
   listed $1,250

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 96% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,138
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$1,935
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,371
• − Management: −$1,371
• − HOA: −$3,276
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable loss: −$2,439
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$585
• After-tax cash flow: $150/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home is in good condition with cosmetic updates needed to enhance its curb appeal and interior aesthetics. It is located in a gated community with Sharyland ISD schools, making it a great investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Reorganizing kitchen cabinets for better functionality — Improves storage and usability
• Both Upgrading light fixtures in bathrooms and kitchen — Enhances ambiance and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Reorganizing kitchen cabinets for better functionality — Improves storage and usability ↑
• Both Upgrading light fixtures in bathrooms and kitchen — Enhances ambiance and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sharyland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839930
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $57,792
• Composite: 34.38/100
• National rank: #5214
• State rank: #406 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mission

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #148
• US rank: #4155

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mission, TX
• County: Hidalgo County · 623,128 people
• City population: 78,024
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• Population (ZIP): 62,456
• Household income: $52,393
• Rent vs Own: 20.0% rent · 80.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 803.0

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 97% Two or more races 62% White 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 93%
• Foreign-born: 33% · Canada
• Languages at home: 12% English-only · Spanish 87%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.13%
• Current HPI: 230.3323
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+10220.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-24 Listed $129,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-05-02 Rental Removed $1,250 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-02-11 Listed for Rent $1,250 MCALLENMLS