2534 Midfield Way · Lowry Crossing, TX 75407

$229,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,276 sqft · SingleFamily · 38 Days on market

Built 2026 5,184 sqft lot Est $246k · 7% under $100/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• ARV discount +10.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

NEW CONSTRUCTION - Welcome to Ashford Crossing by Centex in Princeton, where your dream home awaits! Introducing the Kemp plan, a charming blend of ease and comfort. This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home is thoughtfully designed with every detail in mind. Set in the heart of the community, you'll enjoy easy access to Hwy 380 and all the amenities that nearby McKinney offers. Perfect for active families, this neighborhood provides a warm, close-knit atmosphere. Don’t miss the opportunity to make this new home yours - available February-March 2026.

Key facts

• New construction
• 5,184 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• EASY ACCESS TO HWY 380

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-61 ($-735/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $221k (3.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (10.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $206k (10.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.3% in Lowry Crossing — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#718 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Princeton ISD (suburban): math 51% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #188 of 826 in TX (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Harper El (math 50% / reading 41%, grade D-, #1,112 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 436 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1404 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $206,101 (10.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.14%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $246,268
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2534 Midfield Way	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,276 (0%)	3mo	$229,990	$180	98
2523 Midfield Way	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,250 (-2%)	2mo	$229,490	$184	93
2530 Midfield Way	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,330 (+4%)	2mo	$234,990	$177	91
2515 Midfield Way	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,204 (-6%)	2mo	$238,190	$198	86
2526 Midfield Way	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,424 (+12%)	3mo	$239,990	$169	77
2514 Midfield Way	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,438 (+13%)	2mo	$239,990	$167	75
2803 Parkside Trl	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,335 (+5%)	2mo	$256,990	$193	74
809 Landon Way	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,335 (+5%)	1mo	$257,490	$193	70
1445 Kinsdale Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,428 (+12%)	1mo	$244,990	$172	64
1304 Hopes Lake Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,352 (+6%)	1mo	$269,490	$199	60
1223 Hopes Lake Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,352 (+6%)	1mo	$269,490	$199	58
719 Stampede Ln	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,454 (+14%)	2mo	$295,000	$203	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-47,114
• Equity at exit: $34,292

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-69,013
• Equity at exit: $19,885

Cash invested: $64,397 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75407

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 1404
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,061 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$287 /mo · $3,450/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$433
• Net cashflow: $-61

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,138

Max offer price $221,133

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,498
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2440 Limerick Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1783	$1,998	$1.12	24d	1	0.12mi
1008 Honey Maple St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1825	$1,995	$1.09	24d	1	0.56mi
1006 Honey Maple St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1842	$1,950	$1.06	44d	1	0.56mi
1412 Chestnut Cove Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,000	$1.22	21d	1	0.66mi
627 Willow View Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1664	$2,000	$1.20	44d	1	0.85mi
603 Smokey Trl Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1622	$2,100	$1.29	19d	1	0.94mi
611 Saddle Club Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,100	$1.15	44d	1	0.94mi
513 Spur Rdg Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1622	$2,200	$1.36	17d	1	0.98mi
604 Saddle Club Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1592	$2,050	$1.29	44d	1	0.99mi
2230 Currents Rd Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1836	$2,099	$1.14	44d	1	0.99mi
408 Stampede Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,925	$1.07	44d	1	1.08mi
1208 Sequoia Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,000	$1.09	44d	1	1.12mi
1501 Hidden Bluff Xing Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$2,200	$1.23	13d	1	1.17mi
420 Gunsmoke Trl Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1865	$1,975	$1.06	7d	1	1.18mi
905 Silverbell St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1445	$1,850	$1.28	19d	1	1.20mi
508 Poplar St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1835	$1,995	$1.09	17d	1	1.21mi
1242 Tupelo Trl Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,800	$1.12	24d	1	1.25mi
922 Evergreen St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1838	$1,900	$1.03	5d	1	1.26mi
1209 Mesquite Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1828	$1,995	$1.09	13d	1	1.26mi
1230 Cherry Bark Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1436	$1,925	$1.34	7d	1	1.28mi
1222 Tallow Trl Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,945	$1.17	44d	1	1.29mi
810 Silverbell St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1602	$1,749	$1.09	7d	1	1.29mi
815 Evergreen St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1835	$1,999	$1.09	44d	1	1.30mi
1205 Catclaw Rd Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,900	$1.29	44d	1	1.34mi
1105 Daffodil St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1606	$2,090	$1.30	19d	1	1.35mi
1201 Catclaw Rd Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1774	$1,900	$1.07	44d	1	1.36mi
1117 Loblolly Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1784	$1,795	$1.01	21d	1	1.37mi
1033 Sourgum St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,850	$1.11	13d	1	1.41mi
1033 Sourgum St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,850	$1.11	7d	1	1.41mi
1329 Plum Rd Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$2,055	$1.43	24d	1	1.41mi
1012 Mountain Laurel Rd Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1499	$1,900	$1.27	44d	1	1.43mi
1008 Mountain Laurel Rd Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1262	$1,700	$1.35	19d	1	1.43mi
1109 Sassafras Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1606	$1,850	$1.15	10d	1	1.44mi
309 Hackberry St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1594	$1,800	$1.13	44d	1	1.44mi
900 Mountain Laurel Rd Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,900	$1.27	13d	1	1.45mi
780 Evergreen St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1838	$2,069	$1.13	44d	1	1.46mi
1040 Calley Pear Trl Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,725	$1.22	44d	1	1.48mi
905 Mountain Laurel Rd Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1406	$1,885	$1.34	17d	1	1.48mi
1032 Calley Pear Trl Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,820	$1.14	7d	1	1.48mi
1024 Calley Pear Trl Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,710	$1.22	24d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-03-02
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-18
   price $229,990
3. 2026-01-28
   price $239,990
4. 2026-01-23
   listed $251,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,732
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,883
• − Property taxes: −$3,450
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,979
• − Management: −$1,979
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$4,598
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,104
• After-tax cash flow: $369/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Princeton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835850
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,827
• Composite: 42.44/100
• National rank: #3226
• State rank: #188 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lowry Crossing

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #718
• US rank: #13398

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,171
• Household income: $100,037
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 368.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 30% Black 17% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Mexico
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.99%
• Current HPI: 238.9373
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.02%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-02 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $229,990 NTREIS
• 2026-01-28 Price Changed $239,990 NTREIS
• 2026-01-23 Listed $251,990 NTREIS