5115 Morgan Pkwy · Wanakah, NY 14075

$229,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,488 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1955 5,834 sqft lot $155/sqft · 21% below area Est $291k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful 3-bedroom, 2 full bath Colonial offering spacious living in a fantastic location close to all conveniences! The large, bright living room/dining room combination features a cozy gas fireplace, creating the perfect space for entertaining or everyday living. Kitchen offers granite countertops, laminate flooring, and all appliances included. The family room opens to a charming 3-season sunroom overlooking the backyard. Full basement is partially finished and offers endless possibilities for additional living space, recreation, or storage. Detached 2-car garage. Recent updates include roof (5 years), metal roof on sunroom and garage (3 years), newer carpeting in bedroom and a hot wate

Key facts

• Gas fireplace
• 3-season sunroom
• Granite countertops

Tags

• GAS FIREPLACE
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• 3-SEASON SUNROOM
• PARTIALLY FINISHED BASEMENT
• DETACHED GARAGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water (connected); Sewer connected; Cable available; Circuit breaker electrical
• Home design: 2-story house; Existing (resale) property; Vinyl siding
• Construction: Poured foundation; Vinyl siding construction
• Exterior features: Concrete driveway; Deck; Fully fenced yard; Rectangular residential lot; City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Granite counters; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Varies
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Separate/formal dining room; Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Granite counters; Full, partially finished basement; Living room; Recreation room; Sunroom; Florida room
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer located in basement; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-244 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $187k (18.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (19.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $185k (19.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.1% in Wanakah — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#508 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Frontier Central School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #301 of 590 in NY (top 51%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Cloverbank Elementary School (math 52% / reading 57%, grade C, #908 of 2,108 statewide, top 46%, 549 students, 33% FRL); Frontier Middle School (math 38% / reading 53%, grade D+, #337 of 729 statewide, top 47%, 1,071 students, 34% FRL); Frontier Senior High School (math 97% / reading 95%, grade A+, #68 of 1,100 statewide, top 6%, 1,352 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 264 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $185,475 (19.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.55%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $290,710
• List price: $229,900
• Delta: -20.92%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5009 Chapman Pkwy	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,482 (-0%)	10mo	$285,000	$192	80
2820 Bell Dr	0.14mi	3/1.0	1,548 (+4%)	1mo	$247,500	$160	80
5084 Stewart Pkwy	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,508 (+1%)	14mo	$345,500	$229	70
5031 Chapman Pkwy	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,638 (+10%)	9mo	$320,000	$195	66
4937 Chapman Pkwy	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,412 (-5%)	19mo	$275,000	$195	57
3087 Cloverbank Rd	0.74mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,468 (-1%)	2mo	$320,000	$218	52
4980 Chapman Pkwy	0.26mi	3/1.0	1,306 (-12%)	14mo	$275,000	$211	50
2798 Amsdell Rd	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,482 (-0%)	20mo	$322,000	$217	44
2636 Hawthorne Ave	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,322 (-11%)	17mo	$240,000	$182	42
4796 Mount Vernon Blvd	0.60mi	3/1.0	1,672 (+12%)	12mo	$310,000	$185	35
2992 Avery Dr	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,296 (-13%)	21mo	$246,000	$190	22
5063 Lake Shore Rd	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,264 (-15%)	23mo	$318,500	$252	19

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-48,491
• Equity at exit: $34,279

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-43,742
• Equity at exit: $19,878

Cash invested: $64,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14075

• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 264
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,855 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$408 /mo · $4,897/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$389
• Net cashflow: $-244

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,164

Max offer price $186,758

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-114	-5% $-179	+0% $-244	+5% $-309	+10% $-374
Rent	-10% $-391	-5% $-317	+0% $-244	+5% $-171	+10% $-98
Rate	-1.0pp $-128	-0.5pp $-186	base $-244	+0.5pp $-304	+1.0pp $-364

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,475
• Closing costs: $6,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5510 Southwestern Blvd Hamburg, NY	2.0	2.0	1107	$2,082	$1.88	3d	1	1.04mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending 897-char remark
2. 2026-05-07
   listed $229,900 Active 897-char remark
3. 2019-09-25
   historical
4. 2019-09-04
   status Active
5. 2019-08-23
   status Under Contract- Do Not Show
6. 2019-06-25
   status Active
7. 2019-05-07
   status Under Contract- Do Not Show
8. 2019-04-25
   listed $169,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,897 · $408/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,897 · $408/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,257
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,878
• − Property taxes: −$4,897
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,781
• − Management: −$1,781
• − Depreciation: −$6,688
• Taxable loss: −$6,916
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,660
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,271/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frontier Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3611670
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $58,807
• Composite: 47.36/100
• National rank: #2291
• State rank: #301 of 590 in NY

Livability — Wanakah

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #508
• US rank: #8972

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wanakah, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 44,520
• Household income: $83,383
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 824.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 20% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -261.10%
• Current HPI: 300.2852
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.21%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+35.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $229,900 WNYREIS
• 2019-09-25 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2019-09-04 Relisted — WNYREIS
• 2019-08-23 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2019-06-25 Relisted — WNYREIS
• 2019-05-07 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2019-04-25 Listed $169,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,897 · +12.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.