65 County Road 4264 · Old River-Winfree, TX 77535

$100,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,960 sqft · Manufactured · 347 Days on market

Built 1986 0.51 ac lot ↓ 42% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Country living in Dayton, TX - come and take a look at this updated interior manufactured home on a half acre of land in Woodway subdivision. Vida en el campo en Dayton, TX: venga y eche un vistazo a esta casa prefabricada interior renovada en medio acre de tierra en la subdivisión Woodway.

Key facts

• Updated interior
• Half acre of land
• Woodway subdivision

Tags

• UPDATED INTERIOR
• HALF ACRE OF LAND
• WOODWAY SUBDIVISION

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Additional parking
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Residential property; Full ownership; Single-story entry (all main rooms listed on first level)
• Construction: Cement siding; Block foundation; Composition roof; Built in 1986
• Exterior features: Fully fenced yard; Private yard; Porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Free-standing range; Oven
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first level, approx. 16x16); Bedroom (first level, approx. 14x12); Bedroom (first level, approx. 12x12)
• Flooring: Plank flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Kitchen/dining combo; Ceiling fan(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $643 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.0% vs local median 4.8% in Old River-Winfree — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Dayton ISD (town): math 34% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #512 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Kimmie M Brown El (math 26% / reading 25%, grade F, #2,982 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 845 students, 82% FRL); Dayton H S (math 45% / reading 45%, grade D-, #643 of 1,632 statewide, top 40%, 1,633 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 54% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 1209 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 347 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $73k (42%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $88,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 347 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.61% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.57%
• DSCR: 2.23
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $276,360
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
100 County Road 431	0.55mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,016 (+3%)	9mo	$285,000	$141	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.88×
• Total profit: $24,749
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.65×
• Total profit: $74,245
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77535

• Home prices YoY: -24.8%
• Active inventory: 1209
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,610 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$62 /mo · $749/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$338
• Net cashflow: $643

Break-even live

Break-even rent $796

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 55%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $100,000 Active 347 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $100,000 Active 346 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $100,000 Active 345 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $100,000 Active 344 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $100,000 Active 342 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $100,000 Active 341 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $100,000 Active 338 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $100,000 Active 337 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $100,000 Active 336 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $100,000 Active 333 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $100,000 Active 331 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $100,000 Active 330 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $100,000 Active 329 DOM
14. 2026-05-01
    status Active
15. 2026-04-25
    status Pending
16. 2026-04-21
    price $100,000
17. 2025-10-07
    price $140,000
18. 2025-07-06
    listed $173,000 Active
19. 2019-10-10
    soldstatus
20. 2019-03-04
    soldstatus
21. 2000-12-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $749 · $62/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,830 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,081/yr (+$90/mo · 144.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,317
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$749
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,545
• − Management: −$1,545
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $6,467
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,552
• After-tax cash flow: $6,167/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dayton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816410
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $53,293
• Composite: 30.25/100
• National rank: #6287
• State rank: #512 of 826 in TX

Livability — Old River-Winfree

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,504
• Household income: $84,497
• Rent vs Own: 16.2% rent · 83.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 321.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 12% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 19% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -75.61%
• Current HPI: 229.0925
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-42.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $100,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-07 Price Changed $140,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-06 Listed $173,000 HARMLS
• 2019-10-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-03-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-12-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+10.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $749 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.