11705 Parey Ave #19 · Proberta, CA 96080

$5,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 162 Days on market

Built 1972

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to River View MHC. Home site #19, with beautiful lush Oaks - is available for sale. Home does need work, but overall, it would make a great project for someone looking to live and fix it up! This 1 bedroom, 1 bath is ready for a new owner!!

Key facts

• Parking
• Built 1972
• Listed 161 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease: No (listed land lease amount present)
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached parking; no garage
• Utilities: Individual electric meter; Individual gas meter; Public sewer; Water from district
• Home design: Manufactured in park (single wide); Fleetwood make; 1972 construction year
• Construction: Aluminum skirting; Other roof
• Exterior features: Storage shed(s); Garden; River access

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cook top; Hood over range
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Flooring: Tile; Vinyl; Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with shower stall
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Wood stove; Ceiling fan(s); Wall unit(s); Window unit(s)
• Interior features: Porch; Storage area
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookups only; 220V outlet in laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $5k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $818 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $5k).
• Recommended offer: $4k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 37/100 on livability (#1,425 in CA) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: crime A; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lassen View Union Elementary (rural): math 47% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #142 of 517 in CA (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 262 active listings in the ZIP; 186 units permitted in Tehama County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $35 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $150 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tehama County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.0% rent growth), your $1k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 162 days — a 12% lower offer ($4k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $4,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 162 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 24.64% ✓
• Cap rate: 232.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 808.67%
• DSCR: 36.98
• GRM: 0.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 35.96×
• Total profit: $48,942
• Equity at exit: $746

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 72.73×
• Total profit: $100,426
• Equity at exit: $432

Cash invested: $1,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96080

• Rents YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 262
• Price-to-rent: 0.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,232 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$26
• Tax from tax record: −$2 /mo · $21/yr
• Insurance: −$2
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $818

Break-even live

Break-even rent $196

Max offer price $5,000

Occupancy floor 29%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $1,250
• Closing costs: $150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $5,000 Active 162 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $5,000 Active 161 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $5,000 Active 160 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $5,000 Active 159 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $5,000 Active 158 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $5,000 Active 156 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $5,000 Active 155 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $5,000 Active 152 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $5,000 Active 151 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $5,000 Active 150 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $5,000 Active 147 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $5,000 Active 146 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $5,000 Active 145 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $5,000 Active 144 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $5,000 Active 143 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $5,000 Active 142 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $21 · $2/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $38 · $3/mo
• Expected delta: +$17/yr (+$1/mo · 85.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone A · 75% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 32 unhealthy d/yr today · 36 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,787
• − Mortgage interest: −$280
• − Property taxes: −$21
• − Insurance: −$1,528
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,183
• − Management: −$1,183
• − Depreciation: −$145
• Taxable income: $10,447
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,507
• After-tax cash flow: $7,312/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lassen View Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0621090
• Math proficiency: 47% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $45,781
• Composite: 43.59/100
• National rank: #2974
• State rank: #142 of 517 in CA

Livability — Proberta

• Score: 37/100
• State rank: #1425
• US rank: #27601

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Tehama County · 31,554 people
• City population: 95
• Metro: Red Bluff, CA
• Population (ZIP): 31,554
• Household income: $66,076
• Rent vs Own: 36.3% rent · 63.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 981.0

Population outlook (Tehama County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 61,058 people
• By 2030: 59,493 · -2.6%
• By 2040: 56,076 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 52,372 · -14.2%
• By 2075: 43,895 · -28.1%
• By 2100: 34,186 · -44.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 13% Native American 3% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Tehama

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+41.8) · D 27.9% · R 69.7% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.7pp toward R · 2008: -24.1pp · 2024: -41.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+41.8 2020: R+35.6 2016: R+36.8 2012: R+27.4 2008: R+24.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -139.80%
• Current HPI: 246.877
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.98%
• Metro: Red Bluff, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

-5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $21 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.