2320 Thomas St · Poplar Bluff, MO 63901

$45,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,476 sqft · Other public records · 185 Days on market

Built 1978 0.28 ac lot $30/sqft · 65% below area ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3-bedroom, 1-bath home with a carport. Currently tenant-occupied and renting for $850 per month. Ideal investment opportunity. Please do not disturb tenant.

Key facts

• 0.28 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1978

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $45,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$126,892) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $678 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $40k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 24.4% vs local median 4.4% in Poplar Bluff — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#143 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Poplar Bluff R-I (town): math 38% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #127 of 324 in MO (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 277 active listings in the ZIP; 63 units permitted in Butler County in 2024 (48 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Butler County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 185 days — a 12% lower offer ($40k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $39,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 185 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.78% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 64.62%
• DSCR: 3.88
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $126,892
• List price: $45,000
• Delta: -64.54%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 63.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.85×
• Total profit: $35,940
• Equity at exit: $6,710

10-year hold

• IRR: 68.2%
• Equity multiple: 7.91×
• Total profit: $87,017
• Equity at exit: $3,891

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63901

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Active inventory: 277
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,253 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $678/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$263
• Net cashflow: $678

Break-even live

Break-even rent $394

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 41%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $704	-5% $691	+0% $678	+5% $666	+10% $653
Rent	-10% $580	-5% $629	+0% $678	+5% $728	+10% $777
Rate	-1.0pp $701	-0.5pp $690	base $678	+0.5pp $667	+1.0pp $655

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $45,000 Active 185 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $45,000 Active 183 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   price $45,000 Active 182 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $65,000 Active 182 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $65,000 Active 181 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $65,000 Active 180 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $65,000 Active 178 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $65,000 Active 177 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $65,000 Active 174 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $65,000 Active 173 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $65,000 Active 172 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $65,000 Active 168 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $65,000 Active 167 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $65,000 Active 166 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $65,000 Active 165 DOM
16. 2026-04-02
    price $65,000 156-char remark

    Show marketing remark (156 chars)

    3-bedroom, 1-bath home with a carport. Currently tenant-occupied and renting for $850 per month. Ideal investment opportunity. Please do not disturb tenant.

17. 2025-12-17
    listed $72,550 Active 156-char remark

    Show marketing remark (156 chars)

    3-bedroom, 1-bath home with a carport. Currently tenant-occupied and renting for $850 per month. Ideal investment opportunity. Please do not disturb tenant.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $678 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $678 · $56/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,034
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$678
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,203
• − Management: −$1,203
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $7,896
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,895
• After-tax cash flow: $6,247/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Poplar Bluff R-I
• NCES district ID: 2925450
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,761
• Composite: 35.17/100
• National rank: #5001
• State rank: #127 of 324 in MO

Livability — Poplar Bluff

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #143
• US rank: #8135

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Poplar Bluff, MO
• City population: 34,920
• Population (ZIP): 34,920

Population outlook (Butler County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,648 people
• By 2030: 42,329 · -0.7%
• By 2040: 41,498 · -2.7%
• By 2050: 40,308 · -5.5%
• By 2075: 36,168 · -15.2%
• By 2100: 28,893 · -32.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 6% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Butler

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.8) · D 17.7% · R 81.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.4pp toward R · 2008: -37.4pp · 2024: -63.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.8 2020: R+62.3 2016: R+61.6 2012: R+46.7 2008: R+37.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.64%
• Current HPI: 175.3008
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-10.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $65,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-17 Listed $72,550 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $678 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.