1488 Colorado Dr · Toms River, NJ 08753

$569,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,022 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 116 Days on market

Built 1965 0.25 ac lot $281/sqft · 11% above area Est $610k · 7% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Expanded oversized bi-level featuring a bright white kitchen with granite countertops and gleaming wood floors. The main level offers 3 spacious bedrooms, full bath and a very large dining room/living room combination--perfect for entertaining. The lower level includes a generous 4th bedroom with sitting area, a beautiful full bath, and an expansive workshop. Situated on an oversized corner property with a large deck and shed, this home provides exceptional space both inside and out. Schedule your appointment today!

Key facts

• Large dining room
• Bright white kitchen
• Gleaming wood floors

Tags

• BRIGHT WHITE KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• GLEAMING WOOD FLOORS
• LARGE DINING ROOM
• EXPANSIVE WORKSHOP
• OVERSIZED CORNER PROPERTY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $569k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-837 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $421k (26.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $367k (35.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $367k (35.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 3.8% in Toms River — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#61 in NJ, #1,538 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D, cost of living F.
• Toms River Regional School District (suburban): math 18% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #316 of 472 in NJ (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: East Dover Elementary School (math 14% / reading 36%, grade F, #862 of 1,303 statewide, top 67%, 608 students, 35% FRL); Toms River Intermediate School East (math 17% / reading 49%, grade F, #271 of 431 statewide, top 64%, 1,294 students, 24% FRL); Toms River High School East (math 23% / reading 45%, grade F, #243 of 399 statewide, top 63%, 1,520 students, 23% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 435 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($105k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 116 days — a 9% lower offer ($518k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 30y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $450k; 26% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $367,440 (35.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 116 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.30%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 12.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $610,130
• List price: $569,000
• Delta: -6.74%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1407 Weeping Willow Ct	0.18mi	4/2.5	2,100 (+4%)	4mo	$635,000	$302	80
1629 Partridge St	0.60mi	4/2.0	2,052 (+2%)	0mo	$500,000	$244	70
538 Vaughn Ave	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,971 (-2%)	1mo	$530,000	$269	66
925 Stafford Dr	0.60mi	4/2.0	2,080 (+3%)	2mo	$550,000	$264	66
693 Vaughn Ave	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,204 (+9%)	4mo	$467,500	$212	64
1421 Delaware Ave	0.67mi	4/2.0	1,948 (-4%)	1mo	$560,000	$287	62
1940 New St	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,850 (-8%)	3mo	$475,000	$257	60
1599 Woodcrest Dr	0.49mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,874 (-7%)	3mo	$540,000	$288	57
1624 Shady Ln	0.32mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,730 (-14%)	4mo	$480,000	$277	50
860 Somerset Dr	0.72mi	4/2.5	1,844 (-9%)	0mo	$600,000	$325	49
1090 Dove St	0.69mi	4/2.0	1,834 (-9%)	4mo	$540,000	$294	49
868 Royal Ln	0.73mi	4/3.0	1,750 (-14%)	2mo	$635,000	$363	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.49% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-151,064
• Equity at exit: $84,840

10-year hold

• IRR: -35.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.40×
• Total profit: $-222,323
• Equity at exit: $49,197

Cash invested: $159,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08753

• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 435
• Price-to-rent: 12.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,674 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,984
• Tax from tax record: −$519 /mo · $6,223/yr
• Insurance: −$237
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$772
• Net cashflow: $-837

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,734

Max offer price $421,171

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-515	-5% $-676	+0% $-837	+5% $-998	+10% $-1,159
Rent	-10% $-1,127	-5% $-982	+0% $-837	+5% $-692	+10% $-547
Rate	-1.0pp $-550	-0.5pp $-692	base $-837	+0.5pp $-984	+1.0pp $-1,134

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $142,250
• Closing costs: $17,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
536 River Dr Toms River, NJ	4.0	1.5	2074	$3,500	$1.69	45d	1	0.59mi
1560 Whittier Ave Toms River, NJ	4.0	2.0	1500	$3,300	$2.20	4d	1	1.00mi
5 Rickard Ct Toms River, NJ	4.0	2.0	1476	$2,950	$2.00	45d	1	1.00mi
2334 Adams Ave Toms River, NJ	3.0	2.0	1500	$3,250	$2.17	0d	1	1.10mi
3126 Windsor Ave Toms River, NJ	4.0	3.0	1900	$4,750	$2.50	0d	1	1.33mi
3118 Glasgow Ave Toms River, NJ	3.0	2.0	1536	$3,300	$2.15	3d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $569,000 Active 116 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $569,000 Active 113 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $569,000 Active 112 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $569,000 Active 111 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $569,000 Active 110 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $569,000 Active 108 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $569,000 Active 107 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $569,000 Active 104 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $569,000 Active 103 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $569,000 Active 102 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $569,000 Active 99 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $569,000 Active 98 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $569,000 Active 97 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $569,000 Active 96 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $569,000 Active 95 DOM
16. 2026-04-20
    price $569,000 521-char remark

    Show marketing remark (521 chars)

    Expanded oversized bi-level featuring a bright white kitchen with granite countertops and gleaming wood floors. The main level offers 3 spacious bedrooms, full bath and a very large dining room/living room combination--perfect for entertaining. The lower level includes a generous 4th bedroom with sitting area, a beautiful full bath, and an expansive workshop. Situated on an oversized corner property with a large deck and shed, this home provides exceptional space both inside and out. Schedule your appointment today!

17. 2026-02-25
    listed $579,000 Active 521-char remark

    Show marketing remark (521 chars)

    Expanded oversized bi-level featuring a bright white kitchen with granite countertops and gleaming wood floors. The main level offers 3 spacious bedrooms, full bath and a very large dining room/living room combination--perfect for entertaining. The lower level includes a generous 4th bedroom with sitting area, a beautiful full bath, and an expansive workshop. Situated on an oversized corner property with a large deck and shed, this home provides exceptional space both inside and out. Schedule your appointment today!

18. 2024-10-31
    price $559,900
19. 2024-05-29
    listed $567,000 Active
20. 2024-05-23
    historical
21. 2023-12-13
    price $566,000
22. 2023-11-13
    listed $579,000 Active
23. 2022-03-15
    soldstatus $450,000
24. 2022-02-25
    soldstatus $450,000 Sold
25. 2021-12-08
    status Pending
26. 2021-11-23
    historical Active/Under Contract
27. 2021-11-19
    listed $429,000 Active
28. 1996-05-23
    soldstatus $116,000
29. 1996-04-02
    historical
30. 1996-02-12
    listed $119,900
31. 1991-07-25
    soldstatus $112,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,223 · $519/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,196 · $850/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,972/yr (+$331/mo · 63.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,093
• − Mortgage interest: −$31,873
• − Property taxes: −$6,223
• − Insurance: −$2,845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,527
• − Management: −$3,527
• − Depreciation: −$16,553
• Taxable loss: −$20,456
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,909
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,132/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Toms River Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3416230
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $72,370
• Composite: 29.07/100
• National rank: #6602
• State rank: #316 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Toms River

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #61
• US rank: #1538

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute D Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Toms River, NJ
• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• City population: 131,205
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 65,448
• Household income: $105,224
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 828.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 7% Asian 4% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Guatemala, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -527.36%
• Current HPI: 374.5075
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.49%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+408.0% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $569,000 MOMLS
• 2026-02-25 Listed $579,000 MOMLS
• 2024-10-31 Price Changed $559,900 MOMLS
• 2024-05-29 Listed $567,000 MOMLS
• 2024-05-23 Coming Soon — MOMLS
• 2023-12-13 Price Changed $566,000 MOMLS
• 2023-11-13 Listed $579,000 MOMLS
• 2022-03-15 Sold (Public Records) $450,000 Public Records
• 2022-02-25 Sold (MLS) $450,000 MOMLS
• 2021-12-08 Pending — MOMLS
• 2021-11-23 Contingent — MOMLS
• 2021-11-19 Listed $429,000 MOMLS
• 1996-05-23 Sold (MLS) $116,000 MOMLS
• 1996-04-02 Delisted — MOMLS
• 1996-02-12 Listed $119,900 MOMLS
• 1991-07-25 Sold (Public Records) $112,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,223 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.