115 Lakeview Dr · Shepherd, TX 77371

$179,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,436 sqft · Manufactured public records · 125 Days on market

Built 1980 $125/sqft · 28% above area Est $195k · 8% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.2/30.0
• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

COME ONE COME ALL!!! To this well sought after neighborhood in San Jacinto County Lake Tejas Are you looking for a waterfront retreat with trees and space big huge back yard? Look no further This property has over a half acre with over 150 feet of water frontage on Lake Tejas. Carport area perfect for Mobile camper. The manufactured home has 3 bedrooms 2 baths. Garage has a potencial bedroom and half bath Work shoppe is a 3 car garage.

Key facts

• Work shoppe
• Over half acre
• Carport area

Tags

• WATERFRONT RETREAT
• OVER HALF ACRE
• 150 FEET OF WATER FRONTAGE
• CARPORT AREA
• WORK SHOPPE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath manufactured listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $196 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (3.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 4.4% in Shepherd — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,112 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Shepherd ISD (rural): math 20% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #770 of 826 in TX (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 147 active listings in the ZIP; 575 units permitted in San Jacinto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $297 appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
• San Jacinto County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (0.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 125 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $158,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 125 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.66%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $195,368
• List price: $179,900
• Delta: -7.92%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

0.17% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $8,595
• Equity at exit: $53,728

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.97×
• Total profit: $48,684
• Equity at exit: $65,786

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77371

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 147
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,741 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$162 /mo · $1,939/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$366
• Net cashflow: $196

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,494

Max offer price $179,900

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $298	-5% $247	+0% $196	+5% $145	+10% $94
Rent	-10% $58	-5% $127	+0% $196	+5% $265	+10% $333
Rate	-1.0pp $286	-0.5pp $242	base $196	+0.5pp $149	+1.0pp $102

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $179,900 Active 125 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,900 Active 122 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,900 Active 121 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,900 Active 120 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,900 Active 119 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,900 Active 117 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,900 Active 116 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,900 Active 113 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,900 Active 112 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $179,900 Active 111 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $179,900 Active 108 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,900 Active 107 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,900 Active 106 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,900 Active 105 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,900 Active 104 DOM
16. 2026-03-06
    soldstatus
17. 2026-03-06
    soldstatus
18. 2026-02-12
    listed $179,900 Active 440-char remark

    Show marketing remark (440 chars)

    COME ONE COME ALL!!! To this well sought after neighborhood in San Jacinto County Lake Tejas Are you looking for a waterfront retreat with trees and space big huge back yard? Look no further This property has over a half acre with over 150 feet of water frontage on Lake Tejas. Carport area perfect for Mobile camper. The manufactured home has 3 bedrooms 2 baths. Garage has a potencial bedroom and half bath Work shoppe is a 3 car garage.

19. 2024-12-11
    soldstatus
20. 2024-12-06
    soldstatus Sold 494-char remark

    Show marketing remark (494 chars)

    INVESTORS TAKE NOTE! Do you have the vision necessary to make this a great property? Take a look at this Lake Tejas property in Shepherd. * No flooding per seller * . This property is WATERFRONT and has so much POTENTIAL. It's a 3 bedroom 2 bath, with a 768 sf metal building and an extra bonus building previously used as a workshop. The home needs work, flooring replacement in some areas and there's evidence of some roof leaks. This is an ESTATE and selling AS IS - no repairs will be made.

21. 2024-11-12
    status Pending 494-char remark

    Show marketing remark (494 chars)

    INVESTORS TAKE NOTE! Do you have the vision necessary to make this a great property? Take a look at this Lake Tejas property in Shepherd. * No flooding per seller * . This property is WATERFRONT and has so much POTENTIAL. It's a 3 bedroom 2 bath, with a 768 sf metal building and an extra bonus building previously used as a workshop. The home needs work, flooring replacement in some areas and there's evidence of some roof leaks. This is an ESTATE and selling AS IS - no repairs will be made.

22. 2024-11-08
    status Option Pending 494-char remark

    Show marketing remark (494 chars)

    INVESTORS TAKE NOTE! Do you have the vision necessary to make this a great property? Take a look at this Lake Tejas property in Shepherd. * No flooding per seller * . This property is WATERFRONT and has so much POTENTIAL. It's a 3 bedroom 2 bath, with a 768 sf metal building and an extra bonus building previously used as a workshop. The home needs work, flooring replacement in some areas and there's evidence of some roof leaks. This is an ESTATE and selling AS IS - no repairs will be made.

23. 2024-07-18
    price $129,995 494-char remark

    Show marketing remark (494 chars)

    INVESTORS TAKE NOTE! Do you have the vision necessary to make this a great property? Take a look at this Lake Tejas property in Shepherd. * No flooding per seller * . This property is WATERFRONT and has so much POTENTIAL. It's a 3 bedroom 2 bath, with a 768 sf metal building and an extra bonus building previously used as a workshop. The home needs work, flooring replacement in some areas and there's evidence of some roof leaks. This is an ESTATE and selling AS IS - no repairs will be made.

24. 2024-06-05
    listed $135,000 Active 494-char remark

    Show marketing remark (494 chars)

    INVESTORS TAKE NOTE! Do you have the vision necessary to make this a great property? Take a look at this Lake Tejas property in Shepherd. * No flooding per seller * . This property is WATERFRONT and has so much POTENTIAL. It's a 3 bedroom 2 bath, with a 768 sf metal building and an extra bonus building previously used as a workshop. The home needs work, flooring replacement in some areas and there's evidence of some roof leaks. This is an ESTATE and selling AS IS - no repairs will be made.

25. 2020-01-04
    historical
26. 2019-12-03
    price $115,000
27. 2019-10-07
    listed $135,000 Active
28. 1995-12-04
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,939 · $162/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,292 · $274/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,353/yr (+$113/mo · 69.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,898
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$1,939
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,672
• − Management: −$1,672
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable loss: −$596
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$143
• After-tax cash flow: $2,492/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shepherd ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840020
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,857
• Composite: 17.77/100
• National rank: #9016
• State rank: #770 of 826 in TX

Livability — Shepherd

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1112
• US rank: #19716

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,548

Population outlook (San Jacinto County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,069 people
• By 2030: 29,750 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 30,714 · +5.7%
• By 2050: 31,010 · +6.7%
• By 2075: 31,616 · +8.8%
• By 2100: 29,874 · +2.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 26% Black 12% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 22%

Political lean MEDSL · San Jacinto

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.3) · D 17.0% · R 82.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.0pp toward R · 2008: -38.3pp · 2024: -65.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.3 2020: R+61.9 2016: R+58.4 2012: R+48.9 2008: R+38.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.17%
• Current HPI: 201.6618
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+33.3% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-03-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-02-12 Listed $179,900 Fizber.com
• 2024-12-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-12-06 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2024-11-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-11-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-07-18 Price Changed $129,995 HARMLS
• 2024-06-05 Listed $135,000 HARMLS
• 2020-01-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2019-12-03 Price Changed $115,000 HARMLS
• 2019-10-07 Listed $135,000 HARMLS
• 1995-12-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,939 · +110.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.