15 Loon Mountain Ln · Conway, NH 03813

$125,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 728 sqft · Manufactured public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1987 Est $122k · at est. $700/mo HOA · 41% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• Cash flow +8.5/30.0
• ARV discount +6.2/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

TWO BEDROOM, ONE LEVEL LIVING. Welcome to Mountainvale, a 55+ community. Close proximity to all North Conway activities. This park offers a beautiful clubhouse with quite an extensive list of activities and clubs to choose from. Whether you are looking for your vacation home getaway or your forever home, come on by and see this area. Located a short distance to the national forest, as well as Conway Lake and the Saco River. Priced right. Motivated seller.

Key facts

• Newly remodeled home
• Lovely back yard
• Established gardens

Tags

• NEWLY REMODELED HOME
• ESTABLISHED GARDENS
• LOVELY BACK YARD
• TURNKEY READY
• SHORT DRIVE TO SACO RIVER
• SHORT DRIVE TO CONWAY LAKE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Building only sale (mobile unit sold separately from land); Mobile make/model: Burlington II, unit #6205, serial #7288; Located in Mtn.Vale MHP 55 & Older community
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee ($700) covering water, sewer, plowing and association fee; Association amenities include clubhouse and common acreage; Park approval required (approved)

Exterior

• Parking: Paved driveway
• Utilities: Water from community/dug well (shared); On-site shared septic / leach field; 100 amp electric service with circuit breakers (Eversource); Cable and phone available (Spectrum); High-speed internet available; Underground utilities; Fuel service available (Lakes Region Energy)
• Home design: Single-wide manufactured home; Manufactured home in a 55+ community (Mtn. Vale MHP); Entry and living areas on main level; Gray exterior
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Built in 1987; Manufactured home construction
• Exterior features: Paved driveway; Level, landscaped interior lot in a country setting; Near golf course, paths, shopping, skiing, snowmobile trails, hospital, and schools; Common acreage (community grounds)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Exhaust hood; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric stove
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms (both on main level; each about 14 x 11)
• Flooring: Combination flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (main level, about 8 x 6)
• Heating & cooling: Kerosene and electric heating with forced air / hot air; Cooling: Other
• Interior features: Combination flooring; 4 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Dedicated laundry room (main level, about 7 x 4); Electric water heater (owned)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $126k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-111 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $106k (15.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $126k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (15.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.0% in Conway — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#33 in NH, #4,690 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Conway School District (rural): math 28% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #73 of 98 in NH (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pine Tree Elementary School (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #219 of 263 statewide, top 86%, 221 students, 35% FRL) — zoned schools at 35% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 28 active listings in the ZIP; 357 units permitted in Carroll County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($870 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Carroll County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $28k; list at $126k implies a 351% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 41% of rent.

Recommended offer $106,345 (15.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.77%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $122,304
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
104 Blake Hill Rd	0.47mi	2/2.0	686 (-6%)	19mo	$115,000	$168	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.76×
• Total profit: $61,913
• Equity at exit: $113,421

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.35×
• Total profit: $188,654
• Equity at exit: $244,596

Cash invested: $35,252 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 56 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Hampshire: 56 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+1
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Has just-cause statute; 30-day notice; landlord-leaning vs. neighbors.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 03813

• Home prices YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 28
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,722 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$660
• Tax from tax record: −$58 /mo · $696/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$700
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $-111

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,862

Max offer price $106,345

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-39	-5% $-75	+0% $-111	+5% $-146	+10% $-182
Rent	-10% $-247	-5% $-179	+0% $-111	+5% $-43	+10% $25
Rate	-1.0pp $-47	-0.5pp $-79	base $-111	+0.5pp $-143	+1.0pp $-177

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,475
• Closing costs: $3,777
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $700 · $8,400/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $125,900 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,900 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,900 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,900 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,900 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,900 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $125,900 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,900 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 480-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $125,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $696 · $58/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,720 · $143/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,024/yr (+$85/mo · 147.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,658
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,052
• − Property taxes: −$696
• − Insurance: −$630
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,653
• − Management: −$1,653
• − HOA: −$8,400
• − Depreciation: −$3,663
• Taxable loss: −$3,088
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$741
• After-tax cash flow: $-587/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conway School District
• NCES district ID: 3302490
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $49,590
• Composite: 31.9/100
• National rank: #5859
• State rank: #73 of 98 in NH

Livability — Conway

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #33
• US rank: #4690

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,897

Population outlook (Carroll County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,072 people
• By 2030: 43,158 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 38,044 · -15.6%
• By 2050: 33,087 · -26.6%
• By 2075: 25,661 · -43.1%
• By 2100: 18,684 · -58.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 2% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 11% Slovak 10% Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Carroll

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.8% · R 50.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -1.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.7 2020: D+1.5 2016: R+5.7 2012: R+0.8 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 21.27%
• Current HPI: 417.7399
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+282.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-07 Listed $125,900 PrimeMLS
• 2020-06-05 Sold (MLS) $27,900 PrimeMLS
• 2020-05-08 Contingent — PrimeMLS
• 2020-05-04 Price Changed $29,900 PrimeMLS
• 2020-05-04 Price Changed $29,900 PrimeMLS
• 2020-03-13 Listed $32,900 PrimeMLS

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $696 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.