14 Andrew Paye Rd · Sparrow Bush, NY 12770

$374,999

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,608 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 57 Days on market

Built 1956 1.23 ac lot $233/sqft · 30% below area Est $537k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Remodeled Sullivan County Home short walk to the Delaware River for Eagle watching, fishing and rafting. Paved driveway down to the patio & main entrance to the home on the lower level. Lower level has ~ new kitchen ~ new bathroom ~ bright large dining room ~ entertaining room with wood stove and wonderfull tile floors. One car garage with extra room for lawn equipment and your toys! On the upper level with shinning hardwood floors ~ living room with fireplace walk out to deck ~ Foyer ~ bedroom with walkout to deck ~ Full bathroom ~ bedroom & the bright Master bedroom. Fenced yard ~ Shed can be used for a chicken coop or other things. Home and yard has seasonal view of the river. Short drive to Circle Park in Glen Spey and Eldred for quick shopping. Approx. 25 minutes to Port Jervis train station and around the same to Monticello for the Resorts World Catskills casino. Only a little over 90 minutes to NYC! This home and area has so much to offer come and see for yourself today! Additional Information: Amenities:Storage,HeatingFuel:Oil Below Ground,ParkingFeatures:1 Car Attached,

Key facts

• Great deck
• Delaware river
• 1.23 acre lot

Tags

• DELAWARE RIVER
• GREAT DECK

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; 1-car garage
• Utilities: Septic tank; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Living area reported from public records
• Construction: Other construction materials; Other foundation details
• Exterior features: Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 9 total rooms (bedroom count not specified separately)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Electric heating; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Open kitchen; Pantry
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $375k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-554 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $277k (26.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (33.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $250k (33.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 2.5% in Sparrow Bush — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Eldred Central School District (rural): math 33% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #495 of 590 in NY (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: George Ross Mackenzie Elementary School (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,577 of 2,108 statewide, top 77%, 242 students, 38% FRL); Eldred Junior-Senior High School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #946 of 1,100 statewide, top 88%, 230 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($364k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $170k; list at $375k implies a 121% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $250,000 (33.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.34%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $536,985
• List price: $374,999
• Delta: -30.17%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
53 Swanerbury Rd	0.36mi	3/3.0	1,650 (+3%)	22mo	$699,000	$424	54
502 White Rd	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,392 (-13%)	3mo	$285,000	$205	39
47 Anna Dr	0.59mi	3/1.0	1,382 (-14%)	16mo	$260,000	$188	34
533 White Rd	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (-13%)	12mo	$325,000	$232	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.25% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $35,197
• Equity at exit: $195,570

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.38×
• Total profit: $145,215
• Equity at exit: $324,289

Cash invested: $105,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12770

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 5
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,967
• Tax from tax record: −$407 /mo · $4,880/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $-554

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,202

Max offer price $277,051

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-342	-5% $-448	+0% $-554	+5% $-661	+10% $-767
Rent	-10% $-752	-5% $-653	+0% $-554	+5% $-456	+10% $-357
Rate	-1.0pp $-366	-0.5pp $-459	base $-554	+0.5pp $-652	+1.0pp $-750

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,750
• Closing costs: $11,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
24 Andrew Paye Rd Pond Eddy, NY	3.0	2.0	2050	$2,500	$1.22	7d	1	0.05mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $374,999 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $374,999 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $374,999 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $374,999 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $374,999 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $374,999 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $374,999 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $374,999 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $374,999 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $374,999 Active 44 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $374,999 Active 43 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $374,999 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $374,999 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $374,999 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $374,999 Active 37 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $374,999 Active 36 DOM
17. 2026-05-10
    price $379,000 982-char remark
18. 2026-04-24
    listed $389,000 Active 982-char remark
19. 2019-04-03
    soldstatus $170,000
20. 2019-04-01
    soldstatus $170,000 Sold 1105-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1105 chars)

    Remodeled Sullivan County Home short walk to the Delaware River for Eagle watching, fishing and rafting. Paved driveway down to the patio & main entrance to the home on the lower level. Lower level has ~ new kitchen ~ new bathroom ~ bright large dining room ~ entertaining room with wood stove and wonderfull tile floors. One car garage with extra room for lawn equipment and your toys! On the upper level with shinning hardwood floors ~ living room with fireplace walk out to deck ~ Foyer ~ bedroom with walkout to deck ~ Full bathroom ~ bedroom & the bright Master bedroom. Fenced yard ~ Shed can be used for a chicken coop or other things. Home and yard has seasonal view of the river. Short drive to Circle Park in Glen Spey and Eldred for quick shopping. Approx. 25 minutes to Port Jervis train station and around the same to Monticello for the Resorts World Catskills casino. Only a little over 90 minutes to NYC! This home and area has so much to offer come and see for yourself today! Additional Information: Amenities:Storage,HeatingFuel:Oil Below Ground,ParkingFeatures:1 Car Attached,

21. 2019-02-20
    status Pending 1105-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1105 chars)

    Remodeled Sullivan County Home short walk to the Delaware River for Eagle watching, fishing and rafting. Paved driveway down to the patio & main entrance to the home on the lower level. Lower level has ~ new kitchen ~ new bathroom ~ bright large dining room ~ entertaining room with wood stove and wonderfull tile floors. One car garage with extra room for lawn equipment and your toys! On the upper level with shinning hardwood floors ~ living room with fireplace walk out to deck ~ Foyer ~ bedroom with walkout to deck ~ Full bathroom ~ bedroom & the bright Master bedroom. Fenced yard ~ Shed can be used for a chicken coop or other things. Home and yard has seasonal view of the river. Short drive to Circle Park in Glen Spey and Eldred for quick shopping. Approx. 25 minutes to Port Jervis train station and around the same to Monticello for the Resorts World Catskills casino. Only a little over 90 minutes to NYC! This home and area has so much to offer come and see for yourself today! Additional Information: Amenities:Storage,HeatingFuel:Oil Below Ground,ParkingFeatures:1 Car Attached,

22. 2018-11-16
    price $187,000 1105-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1105 chars)

    Remodeled Sullivan County Home short walk to the Delaware River for Eagle watching, fishing and rafting. Paved driveway down to the patio & main entrance to the home on the lower level. Lower level has ~ new kitchen ~ new bathroom ~ bright large dining room ~ entertaining room with wood stove and wonderfull tile floors. One car garage with extra room for lawn equipment and your toys! On the upper level with shinning hardwood floors ~ living room with fireplace walk out to deck ~ Foyer ~ bedroom with walkout to deck ~ Full bathroom ~ bedroom & the bright Master bedroom. Fenced yard ~ Shed can be used for a chicken coop or other things. Home and yard has seasonal view of the river. Short drive to Circle Park in Glen Spey and Eldred for quick shopping. Approx. 25 minutes to Port Jervis train station and around the same to Monticello for the Resorts World Catskills casino. Only a little over 90 minutes to NYC! This home and area has so much to offer come and see for yourself today! Additional Information: Amenities:Storage,HeatingFuel:Oil Below Ground,ParkingFeatures:1 Car Attached,

23. 2018-09-04
    price $189,000 1105-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1105 chars)

    Remodeled Sullivan County Home short walk to the Delaware River for Eagle watching, fishing and rafting. Paved driveway down to the patio & main entrance to the home on the lower level. Lower level has ~ new kitchen ~ new bathroom ~ bright large dining room ~ entertaining room with wood stove and wonderfull tile floors. One car garage with extra room for lawn equipment and your toys! On the upper level with shinning hardwood floors ~ living room with fireplace walk out to deck ~ Foyer ~ bedroom with walkout to deck ~ Full bathroom ~ bedroom & the bright Master bedroom. Fenced yard ~ Shed can be used for a chicken coop or other things. Home and yard has seasonal view of the river. Short drive to Circle Park in Glen Spey and Eldred for quick shopping. Approx. 25 minutes to Port Jervis train station and around the same to Monticello for the Resorts World Catskills casino. Only a little over 90 minutes to NYC! This home and area has so much to offer come and see for yourself today! Additional Information: Amenities:Storage,HeatingFuel:Oil Below Ground,ParkingFeatures:1 Car Attached,

24. 2018-04-11
    listed $194,000 Active 1105-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1105 chars)

    Remodeled Sullivan County Home short walk to the Delaware River for Eagle watching, fishing and rafting. Paved driveway down to the patio & main entrance to the home on the lower level. Lower level has ~ new kitchen ~ new bathroom ~ bright large dining room ~ entertaining room with wood stove and wonderfull tile floors. One car garage with extra room for lawn equipment and your toys! On the upper level with shinning hardwood floors ~ living room with fireplace walk out to deck ~ Foyer ~ bedroom with walkout to deck ~ Full bathroom ~ bedroom & the bright Master bedroom. Fenced yard ~ Shed can be used for a chicken coop or other things. Home and yard has seasonal view of the river. Short drive to Circle Park in Glen Spey and Eldred for quick shopping. Approx. 25 minutes to Port Jervis train station and around the same to Monticello for the Resorts World Catskills casino. Only a little over 90 minutes to NYC! This home and area has so much to offer come and see for yourself today! Additional Information: Amenities:Storage,HeatingFuel:Oil Below Ground,ParkingFeatures:1 Car Attached,

25. 2015-12-10
    soldstatus $17,000

    Show marketing remark (296 chars)

    this house needs work but when done it will have great resale value...house is being sold as is and all offers will be presented... Electric: Circuit Breaker, BasementDescription: Above Grade, Heating: Zoned, InteriorAmenities: Tile, Internet: Satelite, LandFeatures: Mature Trees,Paved Driveway,

26. 2015-12-10
    soldstatus $17,000

    Show marketing remark (296 chars)

    this house needs work but when done it will have great resale value...house is being sold as is and all offers will be presented... Electric: Circuit Breaker, BasementDescription: Above Grade, Heating: Zoned, InteriorAmenities: Tile, Internet: Satelite, LandFeatures: Mature Trees,Paved Driveway,

27. 2015-05-27
    listed $23,900

    Show marketing remark (296 chars)

    this house needs work but when done it will have great resale value...house is being sold as is and all offers will be presented... Electric: Circuit Breaker, BasementDescription: Above Grade, Heating: Zoned, InteriorAmenities: Tile, Internet: Satelite, LandFeatures: Mature Trees,Paved Driveway,

28. 2015-05-27
    listed $23,900

    Show marketing remark (296 chars)

    this house needs work but when done it will have great resale value...house is being sold as is and all offers will be presented... Electric: Circuit Breaker, BasementDescription: Above Grade, Heating: Zoned, InteriorAmenities: Tile, Internet: Satelite, LandFeatures: Mature Trees,Paved Driveway,

29. 1997-12-19
    soldstatus $80,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,880 · $407/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,609 · $467/mo
• Expected delta: +$729/yr (+$61/mo · 14.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥94°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,006
• − Property taxes: −$4,880
• − Insurance: −$1,875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,400
• − Management: −$2,400
• − Depreciation: −$10,909
• Taxable loss: −$13,470
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,233
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,421/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eldred Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3610410
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $52,775
• Composite: 35.94/100
• National rank: #4800
• State rank: #495 of 590 in NY

Livability — Sparrow Bush

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 241

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1% Dominican 13%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 17% Subsaharan African 6% Lithuanian 2%
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 6% Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.25%
• Current HPI: 205.5005
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+368.7% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Price Changed $374,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-10 Price Changed $379,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-24 Listed $389,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-04-03 Sold (Public Records) $170,000 Public Records
• 2019-04-01 Sold (MLS) $170,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-02-20 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-11-16 Price Changed $187,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-09-04 Price Changed $189,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-04-11 Listed $194,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-12-10 Sold (MLS) $17,000 HGMLS
• 2015-12-10 Sold (MLS) $17,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-05-27 Listed $23,900 HGMLS
• 2015-05-27 Listed $23,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-12-19 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,880 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.