639 Regal Hollow Ln · Houston, TX 77073

$284,500

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,796 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 2004 5,540 sqft lot Est $313k · 9% under $29/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NO MORE SHOWINGS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE! Spacious home in well established neighborhood. Open floor plan features spacious kitchen, separate breakfast area, huge living with corner fireplace, ceiling fan, formal dining, master down with tile floors and recest ceiling and ceiling fan, master bath with garden tub and separate shower. Three large secondary bedrooms up and a spacious gameroom. Ton's of room. Close to shopping, entertainment and freeways.

Key facts

• Open-concept layout
• Home office
• 5,540 sq ft lot

Tags

• OVERSIZED WALK-IN CLOSET
• EXPANSIVE FAMILY ROOM
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• SEPARATE FORMAL LIVING ROOM
• HOME OFFICE
• EASY ACCESS TO HARDY TOLL ROAD

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee ($352)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Driveway parking
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2004; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Brick and cement siding construction
• Exterior features: Fenced backyard; Subdivision setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (16x14); Four additional bedrooms on second floor (12x12; 15x13; 13x12; 13x12)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat; Wood-burning fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $284k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-351 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $223k (21.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (19.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $223k (21.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Spring ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #730 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Carolee Booker Elementary (math 24% / reading 23%, grade F, #3,247 of 4,322 statewide, top 76%, 765 students, 91% FRL); Rickey C Bailey Middle (math 15% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,466 of 1,662 statewide, top 89%, 1,065 students, 85% FRL); Spring H S (math 12% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,497 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 2,760 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools average 83% FRL vs 66% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 162 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $38 of equity ($2k loan paydown + $-2k appreciation (-0.7% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $222,523 (21.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.29%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $313,152
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
410 Canton Bluff Ln	0.20mi	4/2.5	2,703 (-3%)	15mo	$265,000	$98	73
16502 N Glade Dr	0.38mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,798 (+0%)	7mo	$289,000	$103	70
16942 Mission Ridge Ln	0.14mi	4/2.5	2,400 (-14%)	13mo	$262,000	$109	59
910 Red Alder Cir	0.29mi	4/2.5	2,465 (-12%)	11mo	$254,999	$103	58
22250 Queenbury Hills Dr	0.43mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,020 (+8%)	2mo	$296,000	$98	56
1603 Sheffield Forest Ln	0.62mi	4/2.5	2,882 (+3%)	15mo	$335,000	$116	54
16015 Northmark Dr	0.70mi	4/4.0	2,901 (+4%)	5mo	$325,000	$112	51
16318 Embry Hills Dr	0.55mi	4/2.5	2,552 (-9%)	14mo	$315,000	$123	48
16510 N Place Dr	0.30mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,502 (-10%)	19mo	$269,990	$108	48
1207 N Lady Fern Ln	0.59mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,430 (-13%)	2mo	$290,000	$119	44
718 N Vista Dr	0.41mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,507 (-10%)	22mo	$290,000	$116	38
1214 Sabine Brook Way	0.75mi	4/3.0	2,383 (-15%)	11mo	$313,000	$131	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.68% appreciation · 0.69% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-44,642
• Equity at exit: $73,097

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-59,816
• Equity at exit: $80,593

Cash invested: $79,660 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77073

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 162
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,281 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,492
• Tax from tax record: −$513 /mo · $6,156/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$479
• Net cashflow: $-351

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,725

Max offer price $222,523

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-190	-5% $-270	+0% $-351	+5% $-431	+10% $-512
Rent	-10% $-531	-5% $-441	+0% $-351	+5% $-261	+10% $-171
Rate	-1.0pp $-208	-0.5pp $-278	base $-351	+0.5pp $-425	+1.0pp $-500

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,125
• Closing costs: $8,535
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-21
   remarks 693-char remark
2. 2026-06-21
   listed $284,500 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,156 · $513/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,156 · $513/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,367
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,936
• − Property taxes: −$6,156
• − Insurance: −$1,422
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,189
• − Management: −$2,189
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$8,276
• Taxable loss: −$9,151
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,196
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,014/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spring ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841220
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,584
• Composite: 20.12/100
• National rank: #8643
• State rank: #730 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,084
• Household income: $78,592
• Rent vs Own: 35.1% rent · 64.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1297.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 59% Black 27% Two or more races 24% White 9% Native American 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 29% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 44% English-only · Spanish 53% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.68%
• Current HPI: 215.8688
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.69%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+256.1% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $284,500 HARMLS
• 2025-09-24 Rental Removed $1,879 Tricon
• 2025-09-17 Price Changed $1,879 Tricon
• 2025-09-10 Price Changed $1,929 Tricon
• 2025-08-21 Price Changed $1,969 Tricon
• 2025-08-13 Price Changed $2,009 Tricon
• 2025-08-07 Price Changed $2,049 Tricon
• 2025-08-02 Price Changed $2,079 Tricon
• 2025-07-30 Price Changed $2,099 Tricon
• 2025-07-26 Price Changed $2,199 Tricon
• 2025-07-24 Price Changed $2,299 Tricon
• 2025-07-16 Price Changed $2,349 Tricon
• 2025-07-10 Listed for Rent $2,399 Tricon
• 2021-06-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-05-17 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-04-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-04-26 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-04-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-04-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-04-05 Listed $215,000 HARMLS
• 2011-12-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-12-16 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2011-10-26 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2011-08-26 Listed $79,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,156 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.