519 Road 7000 · Plum Grove, TX 77327

$174,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured · 361 Days on market

Built 2010 0.34 ac lot $144/sqft · 20% above area Est $146k · 20% over ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.4/30.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 3 bed, 2 bath manufactured home on a spacious 0.34-acre lot in Cleveland, TX. Features an open living area, functional kitchen, and shaded yard perfect for relaxing or entertaining. The property includes an 8x8 storage shed and is beautifully surrounded by mature cactus, grapefruit, peach, pear, fig, lime, and grape plants. Enjoy small-town living with quick access to I-69, local parks, schools, shopping, and dining. A great opportunity for first-time buyers or investors in a growing area.

Key facts

• Functional kitchen
• Mature plants
• Shaded yard

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• OPEN LIVING AREA
• FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN
• SHADED YARD
• STORAGE SHED
• MATURE PLANTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $228 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $161k (8.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $154k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 5.0% in Plum Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,206 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Northside El (math 33% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 1,235 students, 90% FRL); Cleveland Middle (math 22% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,317 of 1,662 statewide, top 80%, 1,696 students, 98% FRL); Cleveland H S (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,077 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 3,310 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 71% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1577 active listings in the ZIP; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 361 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $153,999 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 361 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.59%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $145,978
• List price: $174,999
• Delta: 19.88%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
377 Road 7002	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	8mo	$140,000	$115	88
736 Road 7000	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-5%)	2mo	$99,999	$87	79
106 County Road 3755	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	10mo	$189,990	$156	62
122 County Road 3419	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,064 (-12%)	2mo	$155,000	$146	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-12,261
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $14,577
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1577
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,610 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$53 /mo · $632/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$338
• Net cashflow: $228

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,321

Max offer price $174,999

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $327	-5% $278	+0% $228	+5% $179	+10% $129
Rent	-10% $101	-5% $165	+0% $228	+5% $292	+10% $355
Rate	-1.0pp $316	-0.5pp $273	base $228	+0.5pp $183	+1.0pp $137

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $174,999 Active 361 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $174,999 Active 358 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $174,999 Active 357 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $174,999 Active 356 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $174,999 Active 355 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $174,999 Active 353 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $174,999 Active 349 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $174,999 Active 348 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $174,999 Active 347 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $174,999 Active 344 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $174,999 Active 343 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $174,999 Active 342 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $174,999 Active 341 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $174,999 Active 340 DOM
15. 2026-05-05
    price $174,999 503-char remark

    Show marketing remark (503 chars)

    Charming 3 bed, 2 bath manufactured home on a spacious 0.34-acre lot in Cleveland, TX. Features an open living area, functional kitchen, and shaded yard perfect for relaxing or entertaining. The property includes an 8x8 storage shed and is beautifully surrounded by mature cactus, grapefruit, peach, pear, fig, lime, and grape plants. Enjoy small-town living with quick access to I-69, local parks, schools, shopping, and dining. A great opportunity for first-time buyers or investors in a growing area.

16. 2025-06-25
    listed $189,999 Active 503-char remark

    Show marketing remark (503 chars)

    Charming 3 bed, 2 bath manufactured home on a spacious 0.34-acre lot in Cleveland, TX. Features an open living area, functional kitchen, and shaded yard perfect for relaxing or entertaining. The property includes an 8x8 storage shed and is beautifully surrounded by mature cactus, grapefruit, peach, pear, fig, lime, and grape plants. Enjoy small-town living with quick access to I-69, local parks, schools, shopping, and dining. A great opportunity for first-time buyers or investors in a growing area.

17. 2025-06-25
    listed $174,999 Active 503-char remark

    Show marketing remark (503 chars)

    Charming 3 bed, 2 bath manufactured home on a spacious 0.34-acre lot in Cleveland, TX. Features an open living area, functional kitchen, and shaded yard perfect for relaxing or entertaining. The property includes an 8x8 storage shed and is beautifully surrounded by mature cactus, grapefruit, peach, pear, fig, lime, and grape plants. Enjoy small-town living with quick access to I-69, local parks, schools, shopping, and dining. A great opportunity for first-time buyers or investors in a growing area.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $632 · $53/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,202 · $267/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,571/yr (+$214/mo · 407.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,314
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$632
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,545
• − Management: −$1,545
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$176
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$42
• After-tax cash flow: $2,781/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

Livability — Plum Grove

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1206
• US rank: #21049

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $174,999 HARMLS
• 2025-06-25 Listed $174,999 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2025-06-25 Listed $189,999 HARMLS

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $632 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.