221 W Herndon Ave #193 · Fresno, CA 93650

$75,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 840 sqft · Manufactured public records · 123 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1970 $89/sqft · at area comps Est $72k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +5.6/15.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for an affordable, well maintained home in one of Fresno's most desirable 55+ communities? This cared for mobile home includes newer dual pane windows, an insulated roof, and a central heating and air system, plus an evaporative cooler with interior ductwork. Inside, you'll find clean carpeting, and beautifully customized bathrooms. Outside, the home shines with a well kept exterior, a large covered carport, storage shed, fenced yard, and inviting outdoor hangout areas with pavers. Enjoy a north-facing deck along with a separate covered patio, perfect for relaxing or entertaining.Located in a vibrant 55+ community in the heart of Fresno, residents enjoy outstanding amenities including a pool, pool tables, shuffleboard, library, community garden, on-site barber/salon, and an active social calendar with regular events. A rare opportunity to own a move in ready home in a live, welcoming community this one is truly a must see home!

Key facts

• Customized bathrooms
• Evaporative cooler
• Well kept exterior

Tags

• DUAL PANE WINDOWS
• INSULATED ROOF
• CENTRAL HEATING AND AIR SYSTEM
• EVAPORATIVE COOLER
• CUSTOMIZED BATHROOMS
• WELL KEPT EXTERIOR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $587 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.7% vs local median 3.7% in Fresno — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#469 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, employment D+, crime F.
• Fresno Unified (urban): math 18% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #327 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Kratt Elementary (562 students, 79% FRL); Tenaya Middle (816 students, 66% FRL); Bullard High (math 28% / reading 55%, grade F, #498 of 1,170 statewide, top 43%, 2,492 students, 60% FRL).
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,426 units permitted in Fresno County in 2024 (296 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($519 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Fresno County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $13k; list at $75k implies a 460% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $66,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.73% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.57%
• DSCR: 2.49
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $71,926
• List price: $75,000
• Delta: 4.27%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
105 W Herndon Ave #66	0.15mi	2/1.5	840 (0%)	4mo	$70,000	$83	87
221 W Herndon Ave #59	0.00mi	2/1.0	880 (+5%)	3mo	$45,900	$52	86
221 W Herndon Ave #16	0.09mi	2/1.0	800 (-5%)	11mo	$79,900	$100	74
105 W Herndon Ave #31	0.15mi	2/2.0	896 (+7%)	12mo	$75,000	$84	72
105 W Herndon Ave Spc 30	0.14mi	2/1.0	720 (-14%)	7mo	$97,500	$135	60
221 W Herndon Ave #179	0.00mi	2/1.0	960 (+14%)	20mo	$83,500	$87	55
105 W Herndon Ave #129	0.14mi	2/1.0	720 (-14%)	22mo	$40,000	$56	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 49.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.73×
• Total profit: $78,235
• Equity at exit: $67,566

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.6%
• Equity multiple: 10.57×
• Total profit: $200,908
• Equity at exit: $145,709

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93650

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 18
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,300 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$15 /mo · $180/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $587

Break-even live

Break-even rent $556

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $630	-5% $609	+0% $587	+5% $566	+10% $545
Rent	-10% $485	-5% $536	+0% $587	+5% $639	+10% $690
Rate	-1.0pp $625	-0.5pp $607	base $587	+0.5pp $568	+1.0pp $548

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6075 N Poplar Ave Apt E Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,600	$1.45	5d	1	0.75mi
6549 N Palm Ave Fresno, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,760	$1.60	4d	2	0.78mi
135 E Stuart Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	1.0	1120	$1,995	$1.78	5d	1	0.79mi
336 W Bullard Ave Fresno, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,700	$1.55	46d	1	0.82mi
445 W Bullard Ave Fresno, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	850	$1,695	$1.99	5d	2	0.97mi
373 W Nees Ave Fresno, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	867	$1,855	$2.14	5d	1	1.10mi
7087 N Thorne Ave Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0	785	$1,495	$1.90	0d	1	1.15mi
5669 N Fresno St Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	916	$1,537	$1.68	4d	10	1.17mi
445 W Nees Ave Fresno, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	847	$1,820	$2.15	0d	12	1.17mi
584 E Bullard Ave Fresno, CA	2.0	1.5	900	$1,425	$1.58	46d	1	1.22mi
7166 N Fruit Ave #179 Fresno, CA	1.0	1.0	884	$1,625	$1.84	0d	1	1.22mi
485 E Bullard Ave Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	907	$1,452	$1.60	5d	8	1.23mi
8060 N Glenn Ave Fresno, CA	2.0	2.0	1118	$1,795	$1.61	0d	1	1.26mi
7722 N Angus St Fresno, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	820	$1,575	$1.92	5d	1	1.37mi
7511 N First St Fresno, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1078	$1,974	$1.83	0d	19	1.37mi
5270 N San Pablo Ave Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	903	$1,545	$1.71	5d	2	1.39mi
7625 N First St Fresno, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	933	$1,728	$1.85	0d	1	1.45mi
7675 N First St Fresno, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	989	$1,830	$1.85	46d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-09
   status Pending 949-char remark

   Show marketing remark (949 chars)

   Looking for an affordable, well maintained home in one of Fresno's most desirable 55+ communities? This cared for mobile home includes newer dual pane windows, an insulated roof, and a central heating and air system, plus an evaporative cooler with interior ductwork. Inside, you'll find clean carpeting, and beautifully customized bathrooms. Outside, the home shines with a well kept exterior, a large covered carport, storage shed, fenced yard, and inviting outdoor hangout areas with pavers. Enjoy a north-facing deck along with a separate covered patio, perfect for relaxing or entertaining.Located in a vibrant 55+ community in the heart of Fresno, residents enjoy outstanding amenities including a pool, pool tables, shuffleboard, library, community garden, on-site barber/salon, and an active social calendar with regular events. A rare opportunity to own a move in ready home in a live, welcoming community this one is truly a must see home!

2. 2026-04-20
   price $75,000 949-char remark

   Show marketing remark (949 chars)

   Looking for an affordable, well maintained home in one of Fresno's most desirable 55+ communities? This cared for mobile home includes newer dual pane windows, an insulated roof, and a central heating and air system, plus an evaporative cooler with interior ductwork. Inside, you'll find clean carpeting, and beautifully customized bathrooms. Outside, the home shines with a well kept exterior, a large covered carport, storage shed, fenced yard, and inviting outdoor hangout areas with pavers. Enjoy a north-facing deck along with a separate covered patio, perfect for relaxing or entertaining.Located in a vibrant 55+ community in the heart of Fresno, residents enjoy outstanding amenities including a pool, pool tables, shuffleboard, library, community garden, on-site barber/salon, and an active social calendar with regular events. A rare opportunity to own a move in ready home in a live, welcoming community this one is truly a must see home!

3. 2026-01-06
   listed $85,000 Active 949-char remark

   Show marketing remark (949 chars)

   Looking for an affordable, well maintained home in one of Fresno's most desirable 55+ communities? This cared for mobile home includes newer dual pane windows, an insulated roof, and a central heating and air system, plus an evaporative cooler with interior ductwork. Inside, you'll find clean carpeting, and beautifully customized bathrooms. Outside, the home shines with a well kept exterior, a large covered carport, storage shed, fenced yard, and inviting outdoor hangout areas with pavers. Enjoy a north-facing deck along with a separate covered patio, perfect for relaxing or entertaining.Located in a vibrant 55+ community in the heart of Fresno, residents enjoy outstanding amenities including a pool, pool tables, shuffleboard, library, community garden, on-site barber/salon, and an active social calendar with regular events. A rare opportunity to own a move in ready home in a live, welcoming community this one is truly a must see home!

4. 2011-11-07
   soldstatus $13,400 497-char remark

   Show marketing remark (497 chars)

   Looking for a affordable, well taken care of mobile home in the Best 55+ Park? Look no further! This home has it all, with Newer Dual Pane Windows, Insulated Roof, Central Air/Heat that's less than 2 years old, Evaporative Cooler with inside duck work, Stove/Oven, washer/dryer nice north facing deck as well as a separate covered patio along the back of the home and a Fenced yard!!! Complete interior paint with berber carpets. Pride of ownership shines throughout this home and is a must see!!!

5. 2011-10-30
   historical 497-char remark

   Show marketing remark (497 chars)

   Looking for a affordable, well taken care of mobile home in the Best 55+ Park? Look no further! This home has it all, with Newer Dual Pane Windows, Insulated Roof, Central Air/Heat that's less than 2 years old, Evaporative Cooler with inside duck work, Stove/Oven, washer/dryer nice north facing deck as well as a separate covered patio along the back of the home and a Fenced yard!!! Complete interior paint with berber carpets. Pride of ownership shines throughout this home and is a must see!!!

6. 2011-10-30
   price $14,800 497-char remark

   Show marketing remark (497 chars)

   Looking for a affordable, well taken care of mobile home in the Best 55+ Park? Look no further! This home has it all, with Newer Dual Pane Windows, Insulated Roof, Central Air/Heat that's less than 2 years old, Evaporative Cooler with inside duck work, Stove/Oven, washer/dryer nice north facing deck as well as a separate covered patio along the back of the home and a Fenced yard!!! Complete interior paint with berber carpets. Pride of ownership shines throughout this home and is a must see!!!

7. 2011-06-30
   listed $13,400 497-char remark

   Show marketing remark (497 chars)

   Looking for a affordable, well taken care of mobile home in the Best 55+ Park? Look no further! This home has it all, with Newer Dual Pane Windows, Insulated Roof, Central Air/Heat that's less than 2 years old, Evaporative Cooler with inside duck work, Stove/Oven, washer/dryer nice north facing deck as well as a separate covered patio along the back of the home and a Fenced yard!!! Complete interior paint with berber carpets. Pride of ownership shines throughout this home and is a must see!!!

8. 2011-03-24
   soldstatus $17,500
9. 2011-03-17
   historical
10. 2011-03-17
    price $18,900
11. 2010-12-28
    listed $17,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $180 · $15/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $570 · $48/mo
• Expected delta: +$390/yr (+$32/mo · 216.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 48 unhealthy d/yr today · 50 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,601
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$180
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,248
• − Management: −$1,248
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $6,167
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,480
• After-tax cash flow: $5,570/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fresno Unified
• NCES district ID: 0614550
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $36,095
• Composite: 26.83/100
• National rank: #7111
• State rank: #327 of 517 in CA

Livability — Fresno

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #469
• US rank: #15907

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fresno, CA
• City population: 593,114
• Population (ZIP): 2,969

Population outlook (Fresno County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,042,971 people
• By 2030: 1,072,198 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 1,122,408 · +7.6%
• By 2050: 1,157,251 · +11.0%
• By 2075: 1,182,575 · +13.4%
• By 2100: 1,105,899 · +6.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 77% Two or more races 33% White 12% Asian 6% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 71%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 52% English-only · Spanish 41% Other Asian/Pacific 4% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Fresno

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.5% · R 50.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: 2.1pp · 2024: -4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.4 2020: D+7.8 2016: D+3.9 2012: R+2.9 2008: D+2.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.16%
• Current HPI: 547.5597
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+328.6% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Pending — FRESNOMLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $75,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2026-01-06 Listed $85,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2011-11-07 Sold (MLS) $13,400 FRESNOMLS
• 2011-10-30 Price Changed $14,800 FRESNOMLS
• 2011-10-30 Delisted — FRESNOMLS
• 2011-06-30 Listed $13,400 FRESNOMLS
• 2011-03-24 Sold (MLS) $17,500 FRESNOMLS
• 2011-03-17 Price Changed $18,900 FRESNOMLS
• 2011-03-17 Delisted — FRESNOMLS
• 2010-12-28 Listed $17,500 FRESNOMLS