Juniper Plan · Tucson, AZ 85756

$185,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · Manufactured · 101 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

55+ age qualified community. Welcome to the Voyager Resort, an age qualified 55+ active and vibrant community, where you can find yourself in your dream home. This sleek and contemporary 2020 Cavco "Juniper" Model will delight the most discerning buyer. This home features stylish Shaker Style cabinetry throughout, recessed kitchen lighting, and ceramic subway tile backsplash in the kitchen. Stainless Steel Kitchen Appliances with an electric smooth top range adorn the kitchen. 2' Blinds with Wood Cornices are featured throughout the home. The open concept design gives way to clear site lines to the living room, dining room, and kitchen. High vaulted ceilings throughout make these homes feel even more spacious. The 2 bedrooms plus extra Den delivers options for use of space. The large spa-like Primary Bath features a double sink vanity and a large walk-in shower. The Primary Suite has a large walk-in closet. The laundry room is spacious and includes a full-sized washer & dryer. This home has a water filtration system as well. For additional storage, there is a large shed to accommodate all your storage needs. For outdoor leisure, enjoy your morning coffee on the front deck overlooking the lovely, landscaped front yard, or there is a rear covered patio. The large rear yard has a cement block rear wall and is very private. It is a blank slate to create your own private oasis. This home comes unfurnished and is ready for one's personal touch. Residents also enjoy a wi

Key facts

• Cavco juniper model
• Listed 101 days

Tags

• CAVCO JUNIPER MODEL
• SHAKER STYLE CABINETRY
• RECESSED KITCHEN LIGHTING
• CERAMIC SUBWAY TILE BACKSPLASH
• ELECTRIC SMOOTH TOP RANGE
• 2 BLINDS WITH WOOD CORNICES

🏗️ New construction. The $185,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $237,500.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $185k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-259 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (5.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $168k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.7% in Tucson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#17 in AZ, #4,502 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, employment D-.
• Vail Unified District (4413) (rural): math 52% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #26 of 249 in AZ (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Desert Willow Elementary School (math 50% / reading 55%, grade C-, #233 of 1,109 statewide, top 22%, 712 students, 34% FRL); Rincon Vista Middle School (math 41% / reading 48%, grade D, #47 of 218 statewide, top 21%, 699 students, 23% FRL); Cienega High School (math 43% / reading 51%, grade D-, #50 of 381 statewide, top 14%, 1,913 students, 20% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 161 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($168k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→12/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $168,350 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.68%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $237,500
• List price: $185,000
• Delta: -22.11%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-57,550
• Equity at exit: $35,412

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.23×
• Total profit: $-81,508
• Equity at exit: $20,535

Cash invested: $66,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85756

• Home prices YoY: -19.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 161
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,749 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,245
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$297 /mo · $3,562/yr
• Insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$367
• Net cashflow: $-259

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,078

Max offer price $199,958

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-95	-5% $-177	+0% $-259	+5% $-342	+10% $-424
Rent	-10% $-398	-5% $-329	+0% $-259	+5% $-190	+10% $-121
Rate	-1.0pp $-140	-0.5pp $-199	base $-259	+0.5pp $-321	+1.0pp $-384

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,375
• Closing costs: $7,125
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7500 E Voyager Rd Unit 138 Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1500	$1,599	$1.07	20d	1	0.35mi
6794 E Sea Horse Rd Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1444	$1,800	$1.25	45d	1	1.07mi
8042 S Dolphin Way Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1444	$1,800	$1.25	12d	1	1.09mi
6590 E Cooperstown Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1328	$1,750	$1.32	12d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $185,000 Active 101 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,000 Active 98 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,000 Active 97 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 96 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 95 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Active 93 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Active 92 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $185,000 Active 90 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,000 Active 89 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $185,000 Active 88 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $185,000 Active 87 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $185,000 Active 84 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $185,000 Active 83 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,000 Active 82 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,000 Active 81 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 80 DOM
17. 2026-05-08
    status Active 1504-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1504 chars)

    55+ age qualified community. Welcome to the Voyager Resort, an age qualified 55+ active and vibrant community, where you can find yourself in your dream home. This sleek and contemporary 2020 Cavco "Juniper" Model will delight the most discerning buyer. This home features stylish Shaker Style cabinetry throughout, recessed kitchen lighting, and ceramic subway tile backsplash in the kitchen. Stainless Steel Kitchen Appliances with an electric smooth top range adorn the kitchen. 2' Blinds with Wood Cornices are featured throughout the home. The open concept design gives way to clear site lines to the living room, dining room, and kitchen. High vaulted ceilings throughout make these homes feel even more spacious. The 2 bedrooms plus extra Den delivers options for use of space. The large spa-like Primary Bath features a double sink vanity and a large walk-in shower. The Primary Suite has a large walk-in closet. The laundry room is spacious and includes a full-sized washer & dryer. This home has a water filtration system as well. For additional storage, there is a large shed to accommodate all your storage needs. For outdoor leisure, enjoy your morning coffee on the front deck overlooking the lovely, landscaped front yard, or there is a rear covered patio. The large rear yard has a cement block rear wall and is very private. It is a blank slate to create your own private oasis. This home comes unfurnished and is ready for one's personal touch. Residents also enjoy a wi

18. 2026-05-08
    price $185,000 1504-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1504 chars)

    55+ age qualified community. Welcome to the Voyager Resort, an age qualified 55+ active and vibrant community, where you can find yourself in your dream home. This sleek and contemporary 2020 Cavco "Juniper" Model will delight the most discerning buyer. This home features stylish Shaker Style cabinetry throughout, recessed kitchen lighting, and ceramic subway tile backsplash in the kitchen. Stainless Steel Kitchen Appliances with an electric smooth top range adorn the kitchen. 2' Blinds with Wood Cornices are featured throughout the home. The open concept design gives way to clear site lines to the living room, dining room, and kitchen. High vaulted ceilings throughout make these homes feel even more spacious. The 2 bedrooms plus extra Den delivers options for use of space. The large spa-like Primary Bath features a double sink vanity and a large walk-in shower. The Primary Suite has a large walk-in closet. The laundry room is spacious and includes a full-sized washer & dryer. This home has a water filtration system as well. For additional storage, there is a large shed to accommodate all your storage needs. For outdoor leisure, enjoy your morning coffee on the front deck overlooking the lovely, landscaped front yard, or there is a rear covered patio. The large rear yard has a cement block rear wall and is very private. It is a blank slate to create your own private oasis. This home comes unfurnished and is ready for one's personal touch. Residents also enjoy a wi

19. 2026-05-06
    historical 1504-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1504 chars)

    55+ age qualified community. Welcome to the Voyager Resort, an age qualified 55+ active and vibrant community, where you can find yourself in your dream home. This sleek and contemporary 2020 Cavco "Juniper" Model will delight the most discerning buyer. This home features stylish Shaker Style cabinetry throughout, recessed kitchen lighting, and ceramic subway tile backsplash in the kitchen. Stainless Steel Kitchen Appliances with an electric smooth top range adorn the kitchen. 2' Blinds with Wood Cornices are featured throughout the home. The open concept design gives way to clear site lines to the living room, dining room, and kitchen. High vaulted ceilings throughout make these homes feel even more spacious. The 2 bedrooms plus extra Den delivers options for use of space. The large spa-like Primary Bath features a double sink vanity and a large walk-in shower. The Primary Suite has a large walk-in closet. The laundry room is spacious and includes a full-sized washer & dryer. This home has a water filtration system as well. For additional storage, there is a large shed to accommodate all your storage needs. For outdoor leisure, enjoy your morning coffee on the front deck overlooking the lovely, landscaped front yard, or there is a rear covered patio. The large rear yard has a cement block rear wall and is very private. It is a blank slate to create your own private oasis. This home comes unfurnished and is ready for one's personal touch. Residents also enjoy a wi

20. 2026-03-11
    listed $199,000 Active 1504-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1504 chars)

    55+ age qualified community. Welcome to the Voyager Resort, an age qualified 55+ active and vibrant community, where you can find yourself in your dream home. This sleek and contemporary 2020 Cavco "Juniper" Model will delight the most discerning buyer. This home features stylish Shaker Style cabinetry throughout, recessed kitchen lighting, and ceramic subway tile backsplash in the kitchen. Stainless Steel Kitchen Appliances with an electric smooth top range adorn the kitchen. 2' Blinds with Wood Cornices are featured throughout the home. The open concept design gives way to clear site lines to the living room, dining room, and kitchen. High vaulted ceilings throughout make these homes feel even more spacious. The 2 bedrooms plus extra Den delivers options for use of space. The large spa-like Primary Bath features a double sink vanity and a large walk-in shower. The Primary Suite has a large walk-in closet. The laundry room is spacious and includes a full-sized washer & dryer. This home has a water filtration system as well. For additional storage, there is a large shed to accommodate all your storage needs. For outdoor leisure, enjoy your morning coffee on the front deck overlooking the lovely, landscaped front yard, or there is a rear covered patio. The large rear yard has a cement block rear wall and is very private. It is a blank slate to create your own private oasis. This home comes unfurnished and is ready for one's personal touch. Residents also enjoy a wi

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥104°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,990
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,304
• − Property taxes: −$3,562
• − Insurance: −$1,188
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,679
• − Management: −$1,679
• − Depreciation: −$6,909
• Taxable loss: −$7,331
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,759
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,354/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2020 Cavco 'Juniper' model is in good condition with cosmetic updates needed to enhance its curb appeal and interior aesthetics. It is move-in ready and suitable for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Updating the flooring in the living areas — Newer flooring can improve the overall look and feel of the home
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal and functionality
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Updating the flooring in the living areas — Newer flooring can improve the overall look and feel of the home ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal and functionality ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vail Unified District (4413)
• NCES district ID: 0408850
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $77,126
• Composite: 49.1/100
• National rank: #2051
• State rank: #26 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Tucson

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #4502

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 839,336
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 37,700
• Household income: $72,490
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 265.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 59% White 29% Two or more races 23% Black 7% Native American 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 49%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 39% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -73.28%
• Current HPI: 304.0243
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.52%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-7.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $185,000 Zillow
• 2026-05-06 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-03-11 Listed $199,000 Zillow