102 Hill Spur · Calverton, NY 11933

$350,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,296 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1970 871 sqft lot Est $272k · 29% over $350/mo HOA · 12% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.5/30.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Bright, airy, and move in ready. This 3 bedroom, 1.5 bath townhouse offers low taxes, and low maintenance living inside a gated community. The main level features a spacious living room, and separate dining room off the kitchen with sliders to a rear deck, perfect for relaxing or entertaining, plus a convenient half bath. Upstairs, the large primary bedroom offers generous closets, while thoughtful storage throughout adds everyday function. Low monthly HOA fees include water, landscaping, and garbage. Close to downtown Riverhead, Tanger Outlets, shopping, dining, and major conveniences, this is a strong opportunity for buyers seeking value, comfort, and ease.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Low monthly hoa fees
• Generous closets

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• REAR DECK
• SEPARATE DINING ROOM
• GENEROUS CLOSETS
• THOUGHTFUL STORAGE
• LOW MONTHLY HOA FEES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fee of $350; Association covers common area maintenance; Community amenities include basketball court and playground

Exterior

• Parking: One assigned/common parking space
• Utilities: Electric service by PSEG; Shared septic sewer; Cable and electricity connected
• Home design: Townhouse; Condominium; Entry level: 1
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Wood fencing; Not waterfront; Frame construction

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range; Refrigerator; Galley kitchen layout
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Electric hot air heating
• Interior features: Galley-style kitchen; Deck; Pull-down attic stairs; No basement; Pets not allowed
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer located in the kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-245 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $307k (12.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $295k (15.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $295k (15.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 7.2% in Calverton — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,053 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: crime C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Phillips Avenue School (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,846 of 2,108 statewide, top 91%, 578 students, 50% FRL); Riverhead Middle School (math 18% / reading 35%, grade F, #594 of 729 statewide, top 81%, 827 students, 57% FRL); Riverhead Senior High School (math 80% / reading 86%, grade A, #440 of 1,100 statewide, top 40%, 2,001 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (3.3% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($345k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $145k; list at $350k implies a 141% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $295,000 (15.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.00%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $272,160
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
134 Hill Cres	0.08mi	3/1.5	1,296 (0%)	1mo	$272,500	$210	95

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.26% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $31,552
• Equity at exit: $162,516

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.31×
• Total profit: $128,481
• Equity at exit: $254,529

Cash invested: $98,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11933

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,950 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$244 /mo · $2,927/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$350
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$620
• Net cashflow: $-245

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,260

Max offer price $306,775

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,500
• Closing costs: $10,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
183 Hill Cir Calverton, NY	3.0	1.5	1296	$2,950	$2.28	12d	1	0.17mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $350 · $4,200/yr
• Likely covers: watertrashlandscapingsecurity

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $350,000 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $350,000 Active 25 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $350,000 Active 24 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $350,000 Active 23 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $350,000 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $350,000 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $350,000 Active 16 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $350,000 Active 15 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $350,000 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $350,000 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $350,000 Active 10 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $350,000 Active 9 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $350,000 Active 8 DOM
14. 2026-05-15
    listed $350,000 Active
15. 2004-07-09
    soldstatus $145,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,927 · $244/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,421 · $368/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,494/yr (+$125/mo · 51.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,605
• − Property taxes: −$2,927
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,832
• − Management: −$2,832
• − HOA: −$4,200
• − Depreciation: −$10,182
• Taxable loss: −$8,928
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,143
• After-tax cash flow: $-793/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverhead Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $61,607
• Composite: 36.38/100
• National rank: #4683
• State rank: #489 of 590 in NY

Livability — Calverton

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1053
• US rank: #20908

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime C- Employment D Housing C Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Calverton, NY
• City population: 6,784
• Population (ZIP): 6,784

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 8% Two or more races 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.26%
• Current HPI: 397.7148
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+141.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listed $350,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-07-09 Sold (Public Records) $145,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,927 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.