13393 Mariposa #181 · Victorville, CA 92395

$70,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,630 sqft · Manufactured public records · 132 Days on market

Built 1976 Est $103k · 32% under ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MUST have a park approval for this community . .. Owner anxious to sell. Come see this home, located in a Senior Living Park. Spacious 2 bedroom 2 bath unit, has plenty of cabinet space, Inside laundry, large windows for plenty of lighting from outside, Vinyl fence around unit. Rock landscaped in rear, Has a large full length Inclosed area, Vinyl flooring appealing to the eye. Central heat and air, Carpet through out. separate dining area, Resort style amenities- Pool, Spa, Clubhouse, Library, games for seniors, Gated community. This unit is also located close to the main Office, Central to shopping and other city amenities. Seller very motivated. Bring your offers and Move in soon. Please

Key facts

• Large windows
• Vinyl flooring
• Rock landscaped

Tags

• PLENTY OF CABINET SPACE
• INSIDE LAUNDRY
• LARGE WINDOWS
• VINYL FENCE
• ROCK LANDSCAPED
• VINYL FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Manager approval required for residency; Pets: contact manager for policy
• Financial info: Land lease amount: $780 (monthly)
• HOA & community: Senior community; Land lease for the space (land lease amount applies)

Exterior

• Parking: Located in the VictorVilla park
• Utilities: Public/district water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Single-story (one level); Mobile home remains on site; Located in Victor Villa MHP; North of Nisqually Road from the 215 freeway (approximate directions)
• Construction: Mobile home dimensions approximately 36' x 81'; Double body type (multi-section mobile)
• Exterior features: Community pool; Curbs, sidewalks, and dog park in the community

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range
• Bedrooms: All bedrooms located on the ground level
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Bathrooms include showers and exhaust fans
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (furnace); Central cooling and wall/window unit(s)
• Interior features: Formal entry; All bedrooms on one level; Front door entry; One-story home
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 26.2% vs local median 4.2% in Victorville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#906 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools D-, crime F.
• Victor Elementary (urban): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #408 of 517 in CA (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 284 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.3% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 3→8/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $61,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.98% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 71.14%
• DSCR: 4.17
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $102,690
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13393 Mariposa Rd #269	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,623 (-0%)	20mo	$120,000	$74	82
13393 Mariposa #114	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-12%)	4mo	$85,500	$59	77
13393 Mariposa Rd #156	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,736 (+6%)	10mo	$155,000	$89	76
13393 Mariposa #188	0.24mi	2/2.0	1,512 (-7%)	6mo	$78,000	$52	72
13393 Mariposa Rd, #97	0.06mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (-12%)	3mo	$90,600	$63	70
13393 Mariposa Rd #35	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,464 (-10%)	10mo	$65,000	$44	70
13393 Mariposa Rd #26	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-12%)	17mo	$65,000	$45	66
13393 Mariposa Rd #92	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,431 (-12%)	10mo	$144,000	$101	66
13393 Mariposa #282	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-12%)	17mo	$30,000	$21	66
13393 Mariposa Rd #124	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,484 (-9%)	21mo	$122,000	$82	62
13393 Mariposa Rd #9	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (-12%)	19mo	$75,000	$52	60
15614 Calico Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,723 (+6%)	11mo	$380,000	$221	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 72.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.34×
• Total profit: $65,388
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 76.5%
• Equity multiple: 9.35×
• Total profit: $163,708
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92395

• Home prices YoY: -14.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 284
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,083 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$88 /mo · $1,050/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
• Net cashflow: $1,162

Break-even live

Break-even rent $612

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 39%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,210	-5% $1,186	+0% $1,162	+5% $1,138	+10% $1,114
Rent	-10% $997	-5% $1,080	+0% $1,162	+5% $1,244	+10% $1,326
Rate	-1.0pp $1,197	-0.5pp $1,180	base $1,162	+0.5pp $1,144	+1.0pp $1,125

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15678 Inca Way Victorville, CA	3.0	2.0	1399	$2,200	$1.57	18d	1	0.20mi
13632 Nassau Dr Victorville, CA	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,990	$1.53	0d	1	0.38mi
15450 Nisqualli Rd Victorville, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	940	$2,146	$2.28	0d	7	0.44mi
13024 Rainwood Ct Victorville, CA	2.0	2.0	1159	$1,800	$1.55	0d	1	0.56mi
13925 Burning Tree Dr Victorville, CA	3.0	2.0	1440	$2,250	$1.56	0d	1	0.84mi
12692 Senecio Ave Victorville, CA	3.0	2.0	1275	$2,300	$1.80	0d	1	0.87mi
16376 Appletree Ln Victorville, CA	3.0	2.0	1544	$2,450	$1.59	3d	1	1.07mi
13520 Third Ave Victorville, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1000	$1,850	$1.85	0d	1	1.13mi
14257 Sage St Victorville, CA	3.0	3.0	1319	$2,500	$1.90	0d	1	1.19mi
14344 Mcart Rd Victorville, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1042	$1,899	$1.82	0d	4	1.27mi
13860 Navarro Dr Victorville, CA	2.0	2.0	1255	$1,850	$1.47	0d	1	1.44mi
14599 Santa Fe Trl Victorville, CA	3.0	2.0	1521	$2,250	$1.48	0d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $70,000 Active 132 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $70,000 Active 129 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $70,000 Active 128 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $70,000 Active 127 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $70,000 Active 126 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $70,000 Active 124 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $70,000 Active 123 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $70,000 Active 120 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $70,000 Active 119 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $70,000 Active 118 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $70,000 Active 115 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $70,000 Active 114 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $70,000 Active 113 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $70,000 Active 112 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $70,000 Active 111 DOM
16. 2026-04-29
    price $70,000
17. 2026-03-30
    status Active
18. 2026-03-24
    historical Active Under Contract
19. 2026-03-23
    status Active
20. 2026-03-22
    status Pending Sale
21. 2026-02-08
    listed $72,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 3 d/yr ≥99°F today · 8 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 22 unhealthy d/yr today · 28 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,998
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$1,050
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,000
• − Management: −$2,000
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $13,641
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,274
• After-tax cash flow: $10,669/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Victor Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0641040
• Math proficiency: 25% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $44,949
• Composite: 21.58/100
• National rank: #8304
• State rank: #408 of 517 in CA

Livability — Victorville

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #906
• US rank: #24038

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B- Cost of living F Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Victorville, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 154,418
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 47,375
• Household income: $62,102
• Rent vs Own: 47.4% rent · 52.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 2449.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 30% Two or more races 19% Black 13% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, South Korea, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 31% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -68.10%
• Current HPI: 395.2836
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.27%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-4.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $70,000 CRMLS
• 2026-03-30 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2026-03-24 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2026-03-23 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2026-03-22 Pending — CRMLS
• 2026-02-08 Listed $72,900 CRMLS

Property tax history

-8.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $53 · +5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.