11876 Arboretum Run Dr #101 · Fort Myers, FL 33913

$424,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,781 sqft · Condo public records · 60 Days on market

Built 2019 $962/mo HOA · 21% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

WHEN CONDITION IS NON-NEGOTIABLE … look no further! This is where truly IMMACULATE MEETS IMPECCABLY UPGRADED. If you believe condition matters—and that details tell the real story—this FIRST-FLOOR CARRIAGE HOME will stop you in your tracks. Built in 2019 and presenting IN EXCEPTIONAL CONDITION, this 3-BEDROOM, 2-BATH, 2-CAR residence offers nearly 1,800 square feet under air and reflects a level of care, precision, and thoughtful improvement rarely seen. Clean, crisp and beautifully curated, the home feels fresh, refined, and completely MOVE-IN READY WITHOUT COMPROMISE. Front and center of this lovely home is a SHOWPIECE KITCHEN designed to impress and perform. QUARTZ WAT

Key facts

• Showpiece kitchen
• En suite bath
• Two walk in closets

Tags

• FIRST FLOOR CARRIAGE HOME
• SHOWPIECE KITCHEN
• QUARTZ WATERFALL COUNTERTOPS
• WALK IN PANTRY
• TWO WALK IN CLOSETS
• EN SUITE BATH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $425k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-137 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $401k (5.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $425k).
• Recommended offer: $401k (5.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.3% in Fort Myers — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#14 in FL, #383 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Veterans Park Academy For The Arts (math 41% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,366 of 2,144 statewide, top 64%, 2,133 students, 36% FRL); Oak Hammock Middle School (math 43% / reading 41%, grade D-, #340 of 571 statewide, top 61%, 1,563 students, 56% FRL); Lehigh Senior High School (math 23% / reading 45%, grade F, #394 of 667 statewide, top 60%, 2,476 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 821 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,526/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($110k/yr) (locally 276% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($412k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $400,822 (5.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.38%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.37% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-88,710
• Equity at exit: $63,369

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-131,688
• Equity at exit: $36,746

Cash invested: $119,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33913

• Home prices YoY: -10.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 821
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,526 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,229
• Tax from tax record: −$344 /mo · $4,132/yr
• Insurance: −$177
• HOA: −$962
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$950
• Net cashflow: $-137

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,699

Max offer price $400,822

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $104	-5% $-17	+0% $-137	+5% $-257	+10% $-377
Rent	-10% $-494	-5% $-316	+0% $-137	+5% $42	+10% $221
Rate	-1.0pp $77	-0.5pp $-29	base $-137	+0.5pp $-247	+1.0pp $-359

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $106,250
• Closing costs: $12,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 38 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12090 Summergate Cir #101 Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1231	$1,825	$1.48	25d	1	0.42mi
11530 Villa Grand Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1336	$1,750	$1.31	5d	1	0.62mi
12062 Via Lighthouse Ln Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.5	1879	$1,995	$1.06	5d	1	0.69mi
11571 Villa Grand #617 Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1336	$2,200	$1.65	18d	1	0.69mi
12096 Ledgewood Cir Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1798	$2,850	$1.59	25d	1	0.78mi
12300 Professional Park Dr Fort Myers, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1058	$2,345	$2.22	25d	25	0.86mi
11701 Avingston Ter Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1553	$5,500	$3.54	16d	1	0.87mi
11012 Castlereagh St Fort Myers, FL	3.0	3.0	2517	$12,000	$4.77	25d	1	0.90mi
11442 Tiverton Trce Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	2010	$9,500	$4.73	25d	1	0.91mi
11801 Pine Timber Ln Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.5	2508	$8,000	$3.19	25d	1	0.94mi
10879 Rutherford Rd Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1566	$3,500	$2.23	25d	1	1.00mi
10952 Clarendon St Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1582	$4,000	$2.53	25d	1	1.00mi
10900 Glenhurst St Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1355	$2,200	$1.62	4d	1	1.03mi
11343 Tiverton Trce Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1685	$4,000	$2.37	5d	1	1.03mi
10908 Clarendon St Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1433	$8,000	$5.58	16d	1	1.08mi
10908 Clarendon St Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1433	$8,000	$5.58	25d	1	1.08mi
11230 Suffield St Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1560	$8,500	$5.45	25d	1	1.09mi
12797 Vista Pine Cir Fort Myers, FL	4.0	2.0	2146	$2,705	$1.26	5d	1	1.09mi
11761 Pinewood Lakes Dr Fort Myers, FL	4.0	3.0	2528	$3,200	$1.27	5d	1	1.12mi
10820 Palazzo Way #203 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1235	$5,400	$4.37	25d	1	1.23mi
11225 Lithgow Ln Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	2153	$8,000	$3.72	25d	1	1.23mi
12021 Brassie Cir #201 Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	2343	$2,700	$1.15	5d	1	1.25mi
10791 Palazzo Way #301 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1390	$5,300	$3.81	25d	1	1.26mi
10529 Casella Way #102 Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1722	$4,500	$2.61	25d	1	1.29mi
10535 Carolina Willow Dr Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1290	$2,300	$1.78	23d	1	1.30mi
10271 Glastonbury Cir #102 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1550	$4,500	$2.90	25d	1	1.32mi
11619 Meadowrun Cir Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.5	2242	$2,495	$1.11	25d	1	1.32mi
10520 Casella Way #101 Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1722	$7,000	$4.07	25d	1	1.34mi
11170 Lakeland Cir Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1571	$1,975	$1.26	16d	1	1.37mi
10751 Palazzo Way #103 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1235	$5,000	$4.05	25d	1	1.37mi
12525 Astor Pl Unit 1049698P Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	2174	$6,065	$2.79	16d	1	1.38mi
12908 New Market St #201 Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.5	2198	$3,000	$1.36	25d	1	1.41mi
10711 Palazzo Way Unit 203 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1257	$5,300	$4.22	23d	1	1.42mi
10711 Palazzo Way Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1257	$3,900	$3.10	18d	2	1.42mi
12016 Five Waters Cir Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1646	$4,500	$2.73	25d	1	1.44mi
12171 Treeline Ave Fort Myers, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1321	$3,402	$2.58	5d	23	1.46mi
10455 Casella Way #202 Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	2319	$7,200	$3.10	25d	1	1.48mi
10700 Palazzo Way #201 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1390	$5,000	$3.60	23d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $962 · $11,544/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-05
   listed $424,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,132 · $344/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,132 · $344/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $54,308
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,807
• − Property taxes: −$4,132
• − Insurance: −$2,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,345
• − Management: −$4,345
• − HOA: −$11,544
• − Depreciation: −$12,364
• Taxable loss: −$8,352
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,005
• After-tax cash flow: $362/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Fort Myers

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #14
• US rank: #383

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fort Myers, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,538
• Household income: $110,373
• Rent vs Own: 9.5% rent · 90.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 276.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -25.45%
• Current HPI: 221.7115
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.37%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2026-02-05 Listed $424,999 FORTMLS

Property tax history

+40.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,132 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.