2954 Vineyards Pkwy Unit 22-4 · Branson, MO 65616

$199,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,147 sqft · Condo · 101 Days on market

Built 2007 Good condition $174/sqft · 17% below area Est $239k · 17% under $265/mo HOA · 15% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Location is everything, and this Branson getaway puts you right in the middle of it all. Just minutes from Silver Dollar City, Table Rock Lake, the Branson Strip, shopping, dining, and live entertainment, you'll spend less time driving and more time making memories. Inside, you'll find a bright and inviting space designed for gathering. The open-concept living area is perfect for movie nights, game nights, or simply kicking back after a day of Branson adventures. The fully equipped kitchen makes everything from quick breakfasts to family dinners a breeze, while the comfortable furnishings and stylish decor create a warm, welcoming atmosphere throughout. Enjoy your own private balcony.

Key facts

• Walk-in condo
• Private balcony
• $265 HOA

Tags

• PRIVATE BALCONY
• COMMUNITY SWIMMING POOL
• WALK-IN CONDO
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• FULLY EQUIPPED KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $200k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-210 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $169k (15.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (9.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $169k (15.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 2.8% in Branson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#32 in MO, #2,940 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Branson R-IV (rural): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #44 of 324 in MO (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Cedar Ridge Primary (345 students, 72% FRL); Branson Jr. High (math 48% / reading 49%, grade C-, #81 of 391 statewide, top 21%, 724 students, 51% FRL); Branson High (math 42% / reading 56%, grade D, #145 of 521 statewide, top 28%, 1,423 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 1453 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 139d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 331 units permitted in Taney County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Taney County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,108 (15.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.51%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $239,319
• List price: $199,500
• Delta: -16.64%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2954 Vineyards Pkwy Unit 22-5	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,147 (0%)	5mo	$159,500	$139	96
2955 Vineyards Pkwy #4	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,161 (+1%)	2mo	$175,000	$151	95
2955 Vineyard Pkwy #3	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,161 (+1%)	2mo	$175,000	$151	95
3004 North Vineyards Terrace Ter Unit 36-2	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,147 (0%)	3mo	$247,500	$216	94
3107 S Vineyards Ter #4	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,147 (0%)	2mo	$267,900	$234	92
3008 N Vineyards Ter #2	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,179 (+3%)	1mo	$269,000	$228	90
3013 N Vineyards Terrace Ter #2	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,173 (+2%)	1mo	$225,500	$192	88
310 Sunset Cv #333	1.47mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,214 (+6%)	4mo	$295,000	$243	47
800 Compton Ridge Rd	1.40mi	3/2.0	1,287 (+12%)	4mo	$164,900	$128	41
80 Celebration Cove Cir	1.22mi	3/2.0	1,412 (+23%)	3mo	$359,500	$255	38
80 Celebration Cove Cir #354	1.22mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,412 (+23%)	3mo	$389,000	$275	33
200 Majestic Dr #219	1.34mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,420 (+24%)	4mo	$380,000	$268	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-45,697
• Equity at exit: $29,746

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-56,991
• Equity at exit: $17,249

Cash invested: $55,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 1 active
• Median asking: $189,000 ($165/sqft)
• Median days on market: 354 d
• This list price: 100% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +26.6% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 65616

• Home prices YoY: -24.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 1453
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,815 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,046
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$249 /mo · $2,992/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$265
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$381
• Net cashflow: $-210

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,081

Max offer price $169,108

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-72	-5% $-141	+0% $-210	+5% $-279	+10% $-348
Rent	-10% $-353	-5% $-282	+0% $-210	+5% $-138	+10% $-67
Rate	-1.0pp $-110	-0.5pp $-159	base $-210	+0.5pp $-262	+1.0pp $-314

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,875
• Closing costs: $5,985
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2905 Vineyards Pkwy #5 Branson, MO	3.0	2.0	1147	$1,850	$1.61	139d	1	0.02mi
2907 Vineyards Pkwy #2 Branson, MO	3.0	2.0	1147	$1,850	$1.61	139d	1	0.02mi
3515 Arlene St Branson, MO	2.0	2.0	880	$1,025	$1.16	139d	1	0.61mi
513 Lakewood Rd Branson, MO	3.0	3.0	1487	$1,750	$1.18	139d	1	1.15mi
325 Majestic Dr Branson, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	941	$1,650	$1.75	139d	2	1.36mi
325 Majestic Dr #226 Branson, MO	2.0	2.0	1450	$1,525	$1.05	1d	1	1.36mi
325 Majestic Dr Unit 340 Branson, MO	3.0	2.0	1168	$1,395	$1.19	1d	1	1.36mi
325 Majestic Dr Unit 334 Branson, MO	2.0	2.0	959	$1,295	$1.35	1d	1	1.36mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $265 that includes insurance, trash, and snow removal

Exterior

• Parking: Paved parking
• Security: Fire sprinkler system
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerElectric service
• Home design: Residential condominium
• Construction: Vinyl sidingBrick exterior
• Exterior features: Composition roofAsphalt road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric ovenFree-standing electric ovenBuilt-in electric ovenDishwasherMicrowaveRefrigerator
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioningElectric heatingForced air heatingCentral heating
• Interior features: Insulated double-pane windowsDisposalElectric water heater
• Laundry & utility: WasherDryer

HOA detail $265/mo · $3,180/yr condo

• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $199,500 Active 101 DOM
2. 2026-09-21
   days on market $199,500 Active 99 DOM
3. 2026-09-20
   days on market $199,500 Active 98 DOM
4. 2026-09-19
   days on market $199,500 Active 97 DOM
5. 2026-09-18
   days on market $199,500 Active 96 DOM
6. 2026-09-17
   days on market $199,500 Active 95 DOM
7. 2026-09-16
   days on market $199,500 Active 94 DOM
8. 2026-09-15
   days on market $199,500 Active 93 DOM
9. 2026-09-14
   days on market $199,500 Active 92 DOM
10. 2026-09-13
    days on market $199,500 Active 91 DOM
11. 2026-09-12
    days on market $199,500 Active 90 DOM
12. 2026-09-11
    days on market $199,500 Active 89 DOM
13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $199,500 Active 83 DOM
14. 2026-09-04
    days on market $199,500 Active 82 DOM
15. 2026-09-03
    days on market $199,500 Active 81 DOM
16. 2026-09-02
    days on market $199,500 Active 80 DOM
17. 2026-08-30
    days on market $199,500 Active 77 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $199,500 Active 76 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $199,500 Active 75 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $199,500 Active 74 DOM
21. 2026-08-25
    days on market $199,500 Active 72 DOM
22. 2026-08-24
    days on market $199,500 Active 71 DOM
23. 2026-08-23
    days on market $199,500 Active 70 DOM
24. 2026-08-22
    days on market $199,500 Active 69 DOM
25. 2026-08-21
    days on market $199,500 Active 68 DOM
26. 2026-08-20
    days on market $199,500 Active 67 DOM
27. 2026-08-19
    days on market $199,500 Active 66 DOM
28. 2026-08-18
    days on market $199,500 Active 65 DOM
29. 2026-08-17
    days on market $199,500 Active 64 DOM
30. 2026-08-16
    days on market $199,500 Active 63 DOM
31. 2026-08-15
    days on market $199,500 Active 62 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $199,500 Active 61 DOM
33. 2026-08-13
    days on market $199,500 Active 60 DOM
34. 2026-08-12
    days on market $199,500 Active 59 DOM
35. 2026-08-11
    days on market $199,500 Active 58 DOM
36. 2026-08-10
    days on market $199,500 Active 57 DOM
37. 2026-08-09
    days on market $199,500 Active 56 DOM
38. 2026-08-08
    days on market $199,500 Active 55 DOM
39. 2026-08-07
    days on market $199,500 Active 54 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $199,500 Active 53 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $199,500 Active 52 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $199,500 Active 51 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $199,500 Active 50 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $199,500 Active 47 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $199,500 Active 46 DOM
46. 2026-07-29
    days on market $199,500 Active 45 DOM
47. 2026-07-27
    days on market $199,500 Active 43 DOM
48. 2026-07-25
    days on market $199,500 Active 41 DOM
49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $199,500 Active 40 DOM
50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $199,500 Active 39 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,777
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,175
• − Property taxes: −$2,992
• − Insurance: −$998
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,742
• − Management: −$1,742
• − HOA: −$3,180
• − Depreciation: −$5,804
• Taxable loss: −$5,856
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,405
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,115/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $5,735–$17,205 screening

This well-maintained, fully furnished townhouse is ready for immediate occupancy and offers a great rental opportunity with minimal updates needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and creates a more inviting atmosphere. ↑
• Resale Updating the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and improves functionality for potential buyers. ↑
• Rental Reupholstering the furniture — Freshens up the interior and makes the space more appealing to renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 49/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Cedar Ridge Primary Middle Branson Jr. High C- MO #81/391 Nat'l #3,846/14,009 High Branson High D MO #145/521 Nat'l #6,078/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Branson R-IV
• NCES district ID: 2905760
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $41,473
• Composite: 41.96/100
• National rank: #3347
• State rank: #44 of 324 in MO

B Composite livability gradescore 77/100

Livability — Branson

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #32
• US rank: #2940

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Branson, MO
• County: Taney County · 59,017 people
• City population: 28,460
• Metro: Branson, MO
• Population (ZIP): 28,460
• Household income: $60,489
• Rent vs Own: 41.8% rent · 58.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Taney County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 59,017 people
• By 2030: 61,235 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 65,225 · +10.5%
• By 2050: 68,842 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 77,705 · +31.7%
• By 2100: 82,002 · +38.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Taney

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.3) · D 19.9% · R 79.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.2pp toward R · 2008: -37.2pp · 2024: -59.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.3 2020: R+57.7 2016: R+59.3 2012: R+47.4 2008: R+37.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.45%
• Current HPI: 200.8392
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• Metro: Branson, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $265 that includes insurance, trash, and snow removal

Exterior

• Parking: Paved parking
• Security: Fire sprinkler system
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerElectric service
• Home design: Residential condominium
• Construction: Vinyl sidingBrick exterior
• Exterior features: Composition roofAsphalt road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric ovenFree-standing electric ovenBuilt-in electric ovenDishwasherMicrowaveRefrigerator
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioningElectric heatingForced air heatingCentral heating
• Interior features: Insulated double-pane windowsDisposalElectric water heater
• Laundry & utility: WasherDryer

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-14 Listed $199,500 SOMO