4672 Birch Bay Lynden Rd #90 · Birch Bay, WA 98230

$179,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured · 68 Days on market

Built 2022 $170/sqft · 42% above area Est $126k · 42% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

NEW Marlette home at Ponderosa Estates! Affordability and a gorgeous location minutes from Birch Bay! Appealing 23 acre park with a signature Pacific Northwest vibe. This new 3 bed, 2 bath home is cozy and bright. Gorgeous contemporary kitchen with beautiful countertops, tile back splash and brand new stainless steel appliances. A spacious backyard where you can create your own garden and patio area. Relax on your beautiful covered front porch to watch the sunrise. Take a walk down to the beach and enjoy cafes, restaurants, parks, trails and spectacular sunsets on the promenade. An all age year-round community.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Spacious backyard
• Built 2022

Tags

• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• COVERED FRONT PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $727 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $169k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 2.6% in Birch Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#406 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A; Watch: cost of living D+, health & safety D, schools F.
• Blaine School District (town): math 49% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #120 of 291 in WA (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 454 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,190 units permitted in Whatcom County in 2024 (327 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Whatcom County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.1% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($169k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $169,106 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.32%
• DSCR: 1.77
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $126,436
• List price: $179,900
• Delta: 42.29%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4672 Birch Bay Lynden Rd #157	0.00mi	2/1.5 (-1)	924 (-12%)	2mo	$25,000	$27	70
4672 Birch Bay Lynden Rd #143	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	924 (-12%)	15mo	$115,000	$124	62
4614 Sunburst Dr	0.26mi	2/1.0 (-1)	960 (-9%)	18mo	$335,000	$349	48
8370 Harbor View Rd #19	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,120 (+6%)	12mo	$225,000	$201	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.87×
• Total profit: $144,565
• Equity at exit: $162,068

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.1%
• Equity multiple: 8.74×
• Total profit: $389,899
• Equity at exit: $349,506

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98230

• Home prices YoY: 14.0%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 454
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,494 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$225 /mo · $2,698/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$524
• Net cashflow: $727

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,574

Max offer price $179,900

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $851	-5% $789	+0% $727	+5% $665	+10% $603
Rent	-10% $530	-5% $628	+0% $727	+5% $825	+10% $924
Rate	-1.0pp $818	-0.5pp $773	base $727	+0.5pp $680	+1.0pp $633

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7650 Birch Bay Dr Blaine, WA	3.0	1.5	1036	$2,175	$2.10	14d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,900 Active 68 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,900 Active 67 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,900 Active 66 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,900 Active 65 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $179,900 Active 63 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,900 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $179,900 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,900 Active 59 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,900 Active 58 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $179,900 Active 57 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $179,900 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,900 Active 52 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,900 Active 51 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,900 Active 50 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    pricedays on market $179,900 Active 49 DOM
16. 2026-04-11
    listed $185,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥81°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,927
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$2,698
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,394
• − Management: −$2,394
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable income: $6,230
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,495
• After-tax cash flow: $7,228/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blaine School District
• NCES district ID: 5300570
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,085
• Composite: 47.05/100
• National rank: #5128
• State rank: #120 of 291 in WA

Livability — Birch Bay

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #406
• US rank: #16180

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime C+ Employment C+ Housing A Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Birch Bay, WA
• County: Whatcom County · 209,776 people
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• Population (ZIP): 18,744
• Household income: $86,623
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 454.0

Population outlook (Whatcom County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 240,408 people
• By 2030: 254,667 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 281,365 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 307,592 · +27.9%
• By 2075: 375,576 · +56.2%
• By 2100: 421,637 · +75.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Iranian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Whatcom

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.9) · D 60.8% · R 35.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.9 2020: D+23.9 2016: D+17.7 2012: D+12.1 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 106.58%
• Current HPI: 868.68
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.10%
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Listed $185,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-5.1%/yr

Latest (2011): $113 · -10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.