Alder Plan · Bonita Springs, FL 34135

$426,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,816 sqft · Townhouse · 589 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Ample storage
• Garage
• Listed 588 days

Tags

• SPACIOUS GATHERING ROOM
• AMPLE STORAGE
• TOP FLOOR LAUNDRY SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $426,990

Exterior

• Home design: New construction plan named Alder; Single-family home (plan)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Open interior with 1,816 living area

🏗️ New construction. The $426,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $419,496.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $427k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-206 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $390k (8.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $341k (20.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $341k (20.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 1.7% in Bonita Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#428 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: schools C-, cost of living C-, health & safety D.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 835 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($91k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 589 days — a 12% lower offer ($376k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $340,888 (20.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 589 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.10%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $419,496
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
27904 Radient Ct	0.09mi	3/2.5	1,816 (0%)	4mo	$399,990	$220	92
27885 Radient Ct	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,816 (0%)	7mo	$416,990	$230	91
27859 Radiant Ct	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,816 (0%)	9mo	$450,000	$248	90
27825 Solis Grande Dr	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,816 (0%)	10mo	$419,940	$231	88
27907 Radiant Ct	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,657 (-9%)	2mo	$445,000	$269	79
28101 Hiram St #1003	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,977 (+9%)	7mo	$397,500	$201	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-91,037
• Equity at exit: $62,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.15×
• Total profit: $-134,569
• Equity at exit: $36,270

Cash invested: $117,459 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34135

• Rents YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 835
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,409 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,200
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$524 /mo · $6,292/yr
• Insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$716
• Net cashflow: $-206

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,670

Max offer price $389,684

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $104,874
• Closing costs: $12,585
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 35 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
27874 Radiant Ct Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1657	$2,950	$1.78	21d	1	0.05mi
27874 Radiant Ct Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1657	$2,790	$1.68	1d	1	0.05mi
27906 Radiant Ct Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1638	$2,650	$1.62	13d	1	0.08mi
27906 Radiant Ct Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1637	$2,650	$1.62	3d	1	0.08mi
27906 Radiant Ct Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1638	$2,650	$1.62	14d	1	0.08mi
27825 Solis Grande Dr Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1831	$2,500	$1.37	23d	1	0.10mi
12770 Bonita Vista Pl Bonita Springs, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1116	$3,454	$3.09	1d	70	0.26mi
13080 Bridgeford Ave Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1882	$9,000	$4.78	14d	1	0.27mi
13231 Sherburne Cir #1504 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1446	$6,500	$4.50	23d	1	0.36mi
13256 Sherburne Cir #2603 Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1576	$6,500	$4.12	23d	1	0.46mi
13260 Sherburne Cir #2704 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1446	$6,500	$4.50	21d	1	0.48mi
13611 Worthington Way #1312 Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1312	$5,500	$4.19	23d	1	0.50mi
13270 Sherburne Cir #2903 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1487	$6,000	$4.03	23d	1	0.51mi
13360 Bridgeford Ave Bonita Springs, FL	4.0	3.0	2609	$12,000	$4.60	3d	1	0.53mi
28536 F B Fowler Ct Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1765	$6,500	$3.68	23d	1	0.68mi
13962 Southampton Dr #4404 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1446	$6,500	$4.50	23d	1	0.73mi
12607 Fox Ridge Dr #4102 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1357	$2,000	$1.47	23d	1	0.73mi
12606 Fox Ridge Dr #7202 Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	3.0	1743	$2,400	$1.38	23d	1	0.77mi
12622 Hunters Ridge Dr Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1787	$7,500	$4.20	3d	1	0.85mi
12080 Matera Ln #204 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1467	$7,500	$5.11	15d	1	0.85mi
13520 Southampton Dr Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1642	$8,000	$4.87	23d	1	0.88mi
28048 Cavendish Ct #5904 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1446	$6,500	$4.50	21d	1	0.91mi
12040 Matera Ln #104 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1467	$7,500	$5.11	14d	1	0.94mi
28068 Cavendish Ct #2310 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1339	$5,500	$4.11	23d	1	0.99mi
28352 Altessa Way Bonita Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	2543	$14,000	$5.51	21d	1	0.99mi
12015 Matera Ln #101 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1467	$6,000	$4.09	23d	1	1.00mi
12015 Matera Ln #102 Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1467	$7,500	$5.11	23d	1	1.00mi
28436 Altessa Way #204 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1621	$9,000	$5.55	23d	1	1.09mi
12303 Londonderry Ln Unit 12303 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1518	$2,165	$1.43	23d	1	1.21mi
12361 Notting Hill Ln #44 Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1900	$2,195	$1.16	23d	1	1.22mi
12243 Londonderry Ln Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1518	$2,165	$1.43	23d	1	1.24mi
14099 Tivoli Ter Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	2205	$3,500	$1.59	13d	1	1.25mi
12341 Notting Hill Ln #25 Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1523	$2,150	$1.41	23d	1	1.26mi
12060 Toscana Way #201 Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	2149	$8,000	$3.72	23d	1	1.34mi
28648 San Lucas Ln #102 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1940	$8,000	$4.12	23d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $426,990 Active 589 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $426,990 Active 588 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $426,990 Active 587 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $426,990 Active 585 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $426,990 Active 581 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $426,990 Active 579 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $426,990 Active 573 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $426,990 Active 572 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,907
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,498
• − Property taxes: −$6,292
• − Insurance: −$2,097
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,273
• − Management: −$3,273
• − Depreciation: −$12,204
• Taxable loss: −$9,730
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,335
• After-tax cash flow: $-137/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bonita Springs

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #428
• US rank: #7576

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 64,727
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 48,252
• Household income: $91,380
• Rent vs Own: 17.7% rent · 82.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 976.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 13% Native American 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 21% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -188.86%
• Current HPI: 243.4153
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.61%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B