8197 Brier Crest Drive Dr · Erie, PA 16509

$69,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 31 Days on market

Built 2017 $670/mo HOA · 46% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.4/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Recently built in 2017, this well-maintained manufactured home offers modern living with 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. The interior is fully updated and move-in ready, featuring a functional layout with comfortable living space throughout. Enjoy outdoor living on the 10x16 deck complete with an awning, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. A newer shed provides additional storage. Conveniently located in a desirable area, this home offers both comfort and value.

Key facts

• 10x16 deck
• Newer shed
• Desirable area

Tags

• 10X16 DECK
• NEWER SHED
• DESIRABLE AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association present; Association fee applies

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable service available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; New construction; R-1 zoning
• Construction: Brick and block construction; Metal roof; Built recently (new construction)
• Exterior features: Deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Freezer; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Vinyl; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: 8 total rooms; No basement
• Laundry & utility: Dryer

🏗️ New construction. The $69,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $53,504.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $124 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 5.2% in Erie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#109 in PA, #840 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Fort Leboeuf SD (rural): math 52% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #77 of 539 in PA (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 116 active listings in the ZIP; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $370 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 46% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $67,803 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.73% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.91%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $53,504
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1640 Edgewood Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,232 (+1%)	4mo	$45,000	$37	82
8205 Cloveridge Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,288 (+6%)	9mo	$68,000	$53	79
8215 Timberwood Ln	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+3%)	2mo	$59,000	$47	74
8233 Cloveridge Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+3%)	23mo	$55,000	$44	71
1520 Pinegrove Way	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,352 (+11%)	2mo	$102,500	$76	61
1632 Edgewood Dr	0.35mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+10%)	7mo	$59,500	$44	55
1595 Edgewood Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+10%)	13mo	$18,000	$13	54
1540 Edgewood Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,296 (+7%)	23mo	$42,500	$33	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-366
• Equity at exit: $7,978

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.77×
• Total profit: $11,560
• Equity at exit: $4,626

Cash invested: $14,981 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16509

• Home prices YoY: -30.7%
• Active inventory: 116
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,460 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$281
• Tax from tax record: −$57 /mo · $685/yr
• Insurance: −$22
• HOA: −$670
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$307
• Net cashflow: $124

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,304

Max offer price $53,504

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,376
• Closing costs: $1,605
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $670 · $8,040/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $69,900 Pending 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,900 Active 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,900 Active 30 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,900 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $69,900 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,900 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $69,900 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,900 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $69,900 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $69,900 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $69,900 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $69,900 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,900 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $69,900 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-04-13
    listed $69,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $685 · $57/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $895 · $75/mo
• Expected delta: +$210/yr (+$17/mo · 30.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 54% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,523
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,997
• − Property taxes: −$685
• − Insurance: −$268
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,402
• − Management: −$1,402
• − HOA: −$8,040
• − Depreciation: −$1,556
• Taxable income: $1,173
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$282
• After-tax cash flow: $1,202/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Leboeuf SD
• NCES district ID: 4209990
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $54,607
• Composite: 51.46/100
• National rank: #1725
• State rank: #77 of 539 in PA

Livability — Erie

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #840

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Erie County · 92,215 people
• City population: 92,215
• Metro: Erie, PA
• Population (ZIP): 28,595
• Household income: $68,846
• Rent vs Own: 31.3% rent · 68.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 870.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 6% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 14% Slovak 4% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -106.54%
• Current HPI: 240.361
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Erie, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Listed $69,900 GEBOR

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $685 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.