16612 NW 191st Way · High Springs, FL 32643

$279,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,265 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 79 Days on market

Built 2016 6,098 sqft lot $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well-kept corner lot home in Oak Ridge at High Springs, ideally located just off 441 between Alachua and High Springs with easy access to I-75 and a quick drive into Gainesville. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers a spacious living and dining area that flows nicely into the kitchen, which features granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a large breakfast bar—great for everyday living or having people over. The backyard is fully fenced with a patio just off the back of the house, giving you a solid outdoor space to relax or entertain. The neighborhood has sidewalks throughout, making it easy for evening walks or getting outside. The primary bedroom includes a generously sized walk-in closet, and both bathrooms feature tile flooring. Additional highlights include Hardie board exterior siding and a sprinkler system already in place. A really solid home in a convenient location—worth taking a look. Some images may be virtually staged and/or digitally enhanced.

Key facts

• Corner lot home
• Large breakfast bar
• Granite countertops

Tags

• CORNER LOT HOME
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• LARGE BREAKFAST BAR
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-82 ($-986/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $265k (5.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $232k (17.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $232k (17.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.0% in High Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#506 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Alachua (urban): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #30 of 73 in FL (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 189 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,774 units permitted in Alachua County in 2024 (984 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alachua County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $199k; 41% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $231,512 (17.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.26%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-50,566
• Equity at exit: $41,734

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-50,683
• Equity at exit: $24,201

Cash invested: $78,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32643

• Home prices YoY: -5.5%
• Active inventory: 189
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,315 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$285 /mo · $3,415/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$486
• Net cashflow: $-82

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,419

Max offer price $265,392

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $76	-5% $-3	+0% $-82	+5% $-161	+10% $-241
Rent	-10% $-265	-5% $-174	+0% $-82	+5% $9	+10% $101
Rate	-1.0pp $59	-0.5pp $-11	base $-82	+0.5pp $-155	+1.0pp $-228

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,975
• Closing costs: $8,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,900 Active 79 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,900 Active 78 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,900 Active 77 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,900 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $279,900 Active 74 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,900 Active 73 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $279,900 Active 71 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,900 Active 70 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,900 Active 69 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $279,900 Active 68 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $279,900 Active 65 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $279,900 Active 64 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $279,900 Active 63 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,900 Active 62 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,900 Active 61 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $279,900 Active 60 DOM
17. 2026-03-31
    listed $279,900 Active 995-char remark

    Show marketing remark (995 chars)

    Well-kept corner lot home in Oak Ridge at High Springs, ideally located just off 441 between Alachua and High Springs with easy access to I-75 and a quick drive into Gainesville. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers a spacious living and dining area that flows nicely into the kitchen, which features granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a large breakfast bar—great for everyday living or having people over. The backyard is fully fenced with a patio just off the back of the house, giving you a solid outdoor space to relax or entertain. The neighborhood has sidewalks throughout, making it easy for evening walks or getting outside. The primary bedroom includes a generously sized walk-in closet, and both bathrooms feature tile flooring. Additional highlights include Hardie board exterior siding and a sprinkler system already in place. A really solid home in a convenient location—worth taking a look. Some images may be virtually staged and/or digitally enhanced.

18. 2019-07-23
    soldstatus $199,000
19. 2019-07-09
    soldstatus $199,000 616-char remark

    Show marketing remark (616 chars)

    Adorable 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom, open floorplan home in Oak Ridge at High Springs is only 2 years young! The kitchen features beautiful white cabinets with granite countertops and stainless steel appliances. Additional features include high ceilings, luxury vinyl plank flooring, low-e windows, tankless gas water heater and a spacious 2 car garage. The large master bedroom has a walk in closet and a beautiful ensuite with a standup tile shower. This corner lot has a huge backyard that is completely fenced in. This home is close to I-75, Publix, the springs, restaurants, and just a short hop over to Gainesville!

20. 2019-04-22
    listed $199,000 616-char remark

    Show marketing remark (616 chars)

    Adorable 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom, open floorplan home in Oak Ridge at High Springs is only 2 years young! The kitchen features beautiful white cabinets with granite countertops and stainless steel appliances. Additional features include high ceilings, luxury vinyl plank flooring, low-e windows, tankless gas water heater and a spacious 2 car garage. The large master bedroom has a walk in closet and a beautiful ensuite with a standup tile shower. This corner lot has a huge backyard that is completely fenced in. This home is close to I-75, Publix, the springs, restaurants, and just a short hop over to Gainesville!

21. 2019-04-19
    historical
22. 2018-10-26
    listed $205,000
23. 2016-11-30
    soldstatus $161,200
24. 2016-05-25
    listed $161,200

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,415 · $285/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,415 · $285/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,781
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,679
• − Property taxes: −$3,415
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,223
• − Management: −$2,223
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$8,143
• Taxable loss: −$5,804
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,393
• After-tax cash flow: $407/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alachua
• NCES district ID: 1200030
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,683
• Composite: 43.31/100
• National rank: #3038
• State rank: #30 of 73 in FL

Livability — High Springs

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #506
• US rank: #9346

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: High Springs, FL
• County: Alachua County · 218,005 people
• City population: 11,953
• Metro: Gainesville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 11,953
• Household income: $83,386
• Rent vs Own: 11.1% rent · 88.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 150.0

Population outlook (Alachua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 289,834 people
• By 2030: 305,873 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 335,246 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 364,719 · +25.8%
• By 2075: 436,665 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 482,920 · +66.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 11% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Italian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Alachua

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.0) · D 59.7% · R 38.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.6pp no change · 2008: 21.6pp · 2024: 21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.0 2020: D+27.2 2016: D+22.5 2012: D+17.3 2008: D+21.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -18.02%
• Current HPI: 308.0178
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Gainesville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+73.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Listed $279,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-23 Sold (Public Records) $199,000 Public Records
• 2019-07-09 Sold (MLS) $199,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-04-22 Listed $199,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-04-19 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-10-26 Listed $205,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-11-30 Sold (MLS) $161,200 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-05-25 Listed $161,200 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+20.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,415 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.