192 Oakwood Ave · East Aurora, NY 14052

$234,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1890 0.58 ac lot $161/sqft · 47% below area Est $445k · 47% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Here's your chance to get a well cared for home right in the heart of East Aurora's village. This home is situated on a huge lot, just around the corner from the shops on charming Main St. The home feature three bedrooms, finished attic space and a partial basement for storage. The detached garage is an added bonus for additional storage. This home has been well loved by the same family for over 50 years and is ready for you to bring your finishing touches and make it your own! Home feature updated vinyl replacement windows throughout, newer exterior doors, gutter guards, high efficiency furnace, and high efficiency water heater.

Key facts

• Finished attic space
• Partial basement
• Newer doors

Tags

• HUGE LOT
• FINISHED ATTIC SPACE
• PARTIAL BASEMENT
• DETACHED GARAGE
• NEWER DOORS
• FURNACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-124 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $213k (9.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (18.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $193k (18.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 1.8% in East Aurora — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#81 in NY, #1,241 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, commute F.
• East Aurora Union Free School District (town): math 55% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #189 of 590 in NY (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 90 active listings in the ZIP; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($231k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $192,616 (18.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.27%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $444,682
• List price: $234,900
• Delta: -47.18%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
261 Parkdale Ave	0.36mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,459 (+0%)	2mo	$472,500	$324	70
290 Girard Ave	0.48mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,472 (+1%)	14mo	$455,000	$309	57
424 Linden Ave	0.63mi	4/2.0	1,553 (+7%)	5mo	$400,000	$258	51
245 Sycamore St	0.73mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,480 (+2%)	8mo	$317,000	$214	50
260 North St	0.54mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,248 (-14%)	0mo	$385,000	$308	46
387 Mill Rd	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,515 (+4%)	10mo	$522,000	$345	46
205 N Willow St	0.54mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,344 (-8%)	14mo	$360,000	$268	45
172 Maple Rd	0.58mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,272 (-13%)	5mo	$285,000	$224	43
529 Ridge Ave	0.71mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,536 (+6%)	8mo	$385,000	$251	40
100 Sycamore St	0.68mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,300 (-11%)	10mo	$420,000	$323	38
385 Mill Rd	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,299 (-11%)	14mo	$425,000	$327	32
584 Oakwood Ave	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,615 (+11%)	9mo	$390,000	$241	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-45,947
• Equity at exit: $35,024

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-50,042
• Equity at exit: $20,310

Cash invested: $65,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14052

• Active inventory: 90
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,926 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$316 /mo · $3,797/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$404
• Net cashflow: $-124

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,084

Max offer price $212,915

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $9	-5% $-58	+0% $-124	+5% $-191	+10% $-257
Rent	-10% $-277	-5% $-201	+0% $-124	+5% $-48	+10% $28
Rate	-1.0pp $-6	-0.5pp $-65	base $-124	+0.5pp $-185	+1.0pp $-247

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,725
• Closing costs: $7,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 637-char remark

   Show marketing remark (637 chars)

   Here's your chance to get a well cared for home right in the heart of East Aurora's village. This home is situated on a huge lot, just around the corner from the shops on charming Main St. The home feature three bedrooms, finished attic space and a partial basement for storage. The detached garage is an added bonus for additional storage. This home has been well loved by the same family for over 50 years and is ready for you to bring your finishing touches and make it your own! Home feature updated vinyl replacement windows throughout, newer exterior doors, gutter guards, high efficiency furnace, and high efficiency water heater.

2. 2026-05-05
   historical Active Under Contract 637-char remark

   Show marketing remark (637 chars)

   Here's your chance to get a well cared for home right in the heart of East Aurora's village. This home is situated on a huge lot, just around the corner from the shops on charming Main St. The home feature three bedrooms, finished attic space and a partial basement for storage. The detached garage is an added bonus for additional storage. This home has been well loved by the same family for over 50 years and is ready for you to bring your finishing touches and make it your own! Home feature updated vinyl replacement windows throughout, newer exterior doors, gutter guards, high efficiency furnace, and high efficiency water heater.

3. 2026-04-20
   listed $234,900 Active 637-char remark

   Show marketing remark (637 chars)

   Here's your chance to get a well cared for home right in the heart of East Aurora's village. This home is situated on a huge lot, just around the corner from the shops on charming Main St. The home feature three bedrooms, finished attic space and a partial basement for storage. The detached garage is an added bonus for additional storage. This home has been well loved by the same family for over 50 years and is ready for you to bring your finishing touches and make it your own! Home feature updated vinyl replacement windows throughout, newer exterior doors, gutter guards, high efficiency furnace, and high efficiency water heater.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,797 · $316/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,883 · $324/mo
• Expected delta: +$86/yr (+$7/mo · 2.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,114
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,158
• − Property taxes: −$3,797
• − Insurance: −$1,174
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,849
• − Management: −$1,849
• − Depreciation: −$6,833
• Taxable loss: −$5,547
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,331
• After-tax cash flow: $-162/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Aurora Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3609540
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $70,345
• Composite: 54.63/100
• National rank: #1334
• State rank: #189 of 590 in NY

Livability — East Aurora

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #81
• US rank: #1241

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute F Cost of living C- Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Aurora, NY
• Population (ZIP): 17,501

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Arabic 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -212.44%
• Current HPI: 327.8237
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-05-05 Contingent — WNYREIS
• 2026-04-20 Listed $234,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,797 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.