38 Del Rey Dr · Vacaville, CA 95687

$199,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured · 57 Days on market

Built 1986 Good condition $159/sqft · at area comps Est $207k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.7/10.0
• ARV discount +9.2/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home located in the desirable Casa Grande Mobile Home Park. All ages welcome! Excellent opportunity to own at a low price while still enjoying great space and community amenities. Situated on a larger lot, this home offers room to spread out both inside and out. Fresh exterior paint gives it a clean, updated look, while the spacious vaulted ceilings create an open and inviting atmosphere throughout the main living areas. Charming kitchen has a new dishwasher and garbage disposal. The large primary bedroom provides a comfortable retreat with plenty of space to relax. Outside, you'll find garden boxes in the side yard,perfect for growing your own produce or flowers as well as a small storage shed for added convenience. Residents of Casa Grande enjoy access to a community pool and clubhouse, making it easy to relax and connect with neighbors. If you've been looking for an affordable home in a well-maintained community, this is one you won't want to miss!

Key facts

• Garden boxes
• Larger lot
• New dishwasher

Tags

• LARGER LOT
• FRESH EXTERIOR PAINT
• SPACIOUS VAULTED CEILINGS
• NEW DISHWASHER
• GARDEN BOXES
• SMALL STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $199k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $942 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $199k).
• Recommended offer: $193k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.0% vs local median 3.0% in Vacaville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#88 in CA, #3,156 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, cost of living F.
• Vacaville Unified (suburban): math 37% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #522 of 1,400 in CA (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 263 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,472 units permitted in Solano County in 2024 (131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($110k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Solano County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,030 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.47% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.28%
• DSCR: 1.90
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $206,894
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -3.82%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
124 Del Paso Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-8%)	4mo	$209,000	$181	80
45 Del Paso Ct	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,224 (-2%)	18mo	$195,000	$159	77
25 Del Rey Dr	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	12mo	$210,000	$156	76
49 Del Paso Ct	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,368 (+10%)	5mo	$200,000	$146	75
125 Del Paso Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,320 (+6%)	13mo	$197,500	$150	74
42 Del Paso Ct	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-8%)	12mo	$150,000	$130	72
131 Del Paso Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,100 (-12%)	4mo	$214,950	$195	71
127 Del Paso Dr	0.06mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (+8%)	12mo	$195,000	$145	69
8 Del Loma Ct	0.05mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (-8%)	13mo	$150,000	$130	69

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $19,178
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.09×
• Total profit: $60,892
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95687

• Rents YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 263
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,933 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$249 /mo · $2,985/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$616
• Net cashflow: $942

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,741

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
132 Bryce Way Vacaville, CA	2.0	2.0	1292	$2,350	$1.82	44d	1	0.74mi
188 Glacier Cir Vacaville, CA	3.0	2.0	1372	$2,750	$2.00	14d	1	0.89mi
6801 Leisure Town Rd Vacaville, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1122	$3,611	$3.22	2d	16	0.92mi
5085 Quinn Rd Vacaville, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1025	$3,658	$3.57	2d	15	0.96mi
107 Lassen Cir Vacaville, CA	2.0	2.0	1043	$2,150	$2.06	23d	1	1.17mi
300 Crescent Dr Vacaville, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	976	$2,612	$2.68	2d	5	1.20mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,000 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,000 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,000 Active 46 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $199,000 Active 43 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $205,000 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $205,000 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $205,000 Active 40 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $205,000 Active 39 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $205,000 Active 38 DOM
17. 2026-05-05
    historical Contingent (Show) 1003-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1003 chars)

    Welcome to this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home located in the desirable Casa Grande Mobile Home Park. All ages welcome! Excellent opportunity to own at a low price while still enjoying great space and community amenities. Situated on a larger lot, this home offers room to spread out both inside and out. Fresh exterior paint gives it a clean, updated look, while the spacious vaulted ceilings create an open and inviting atmosphere throughout the main living areas. Charming kitchen has a new dishwasher and garbage disposal. The large primary bedroom provides a comfortable retreat with plenty of space to relax. Outside, you'll find garden boxes in the side yard,perfect for growing your own produce or flowers as well as a small storage shed for added convenience. Residents of Casa Grande enjoy access to a community pool and clubhouse, making it easy to relax and connect with neighbors. If you've been looking for an affordable home in a well-maintained community, this is one you won't want to miss!

18. 2026-04-22
    listed $210,000 Active 1003-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1003 chars)

    Welcome to this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home located in the desirable Casa Grande Mobile Home Park. All ages welcome! Excellent opportunity to own at a low price while still enjoying great space and community amenities. Situated on a larger lot, this home offers room to spread out both inside and out. Fresh exterior paint gives it a clean, updated look, while the spacious vaulted ceilings create an open and inviting atmosphere throughout the main living areas. Charming kitchen has a new dishwasher and garbage disposal. The large primary bedroom provides a comfortable retreat with plenty of space to relax. Outside, you'll find garden boxes in the side yard,perfect for growing your own produce or flowers as well as a small storage shed for added convenience. Residents of Casa Grande enjoy access to a community pool and clubhouse, making it easy to relax and connect with neighbors. If you've been looking for an affordable home in a well-maintained community, this is one you won't want to miss!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 24 unhealthy d/yr today · 25 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,194
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$2,985
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,815
• − Management: −$2,815
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable income: $8,646
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,075
• After-tax cash flow: $9,225/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in Casa Grande Mobile Home Park is in good condition with fresh exterior paint and well-maintained landscaping. Minor updates to the exterior and landscaping can significantly enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Trim landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping improves curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Trim landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping improves curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vacaville Unified
• NCES district ID: 0640590
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $71,383
• Composite: 42.48/100
• National rank: #6877
• State rank: #522 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Vacaville

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #88
• US rank: #3156

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute B- Cost of living F Crime C Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Vacaville, CA
• County: Solano County · 433,239 people
• City population: 109,591
• Metro: Vallejo, CA
• Population (ZIP): 69,390
• Household income: $109,566
• Rent vs Own: 33.1% rent · 66.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1761.0

Population outlook (Solano County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 478,685 people
• By 2030: 497,974 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 528,515 · +10.4%
• By 2050: 549,115 · +14.7%
• By 2075: 587,229 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 571,378 · +19.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 13% Black 10% Asian 10% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 13% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 12% Tagalog/Filipino 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Solano

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.0) · D 60.0% · R 37.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.6pp toward R · 2008: 28.6pp · 2024: 23.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.0 2020: D+30.3 2016: D+30.5 2012: D+28.1 2008: D+28.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -299.59%
• Current HPI: 268.0777
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.55%
• Metro: Vallejo, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Contingent — BAREIS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $210,000 BAREIS