26 Frontier St · Thoreau, NM 87323

$30,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · Manufactured · 338 Days on market

Built 2005 0.51 ac lot ↓ 53% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Cozy 2 bedroom 1 bath home on half an acre. A true diamond in the rough needing some TLC. Must see to appreciate.

Key facts

• 0.51 acre lot
• Built 2005
• Listed 338 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured house; Manufactured home / mobile home; Property is attached
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 0.51 acres (about 22,216 sq ft)

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Electric cooling; No heating system listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $504 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($900 rent vs $30k).
• Recommended offer: $26k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#183 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D, amenities F.
• Gallup-Mckinley Cty Schools (rural): math 17% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #54 of 95 in NM (top 57%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 84% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Thoreau Elementary (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #63 of 68 statewide, top 97%, 400 students, 100% FRL); Thoreau Middle (284 students, 100% FRL); Thoreau High (475 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 84% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in McKinley County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($207 loan paydown + $900 appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• McKinley County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 338 days — a 12% lower offer ($26k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (33%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $26,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 338 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 71.96%
• DSCR: 4.20
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 76.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.25×
• Total profit: $35,711
• Equity at exit: $13,489

10-year hold

• IRR: 76.1%
• Equity multiple: 10.78×
• Total profit: $82,187
• Equity at exit: $20,789

Cash invested: $8,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 87323

• Active inventory: 22
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $900 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$38 /mo · $450/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$189
• Net cashflow: $504

Break-even live

Break-even rent $262

Max offer price $30,000

Occupancy floor 39%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $524	-5% $514	+0% $504	+5% $493	+10% $483
Rent	-10% $433	-5% $468	+0% $504	+5% $539	+10% $575
Rate	-1.0pp $519	-0.5pp $511	base $504	+0.5pp $496	+1.0pp $488

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,500
• Closing costs: $900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $30,000 Active 338 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $30,000 Active 337 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $30,000 Active 335 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $30,000 Active 334 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $30,000 Active 333 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $30,000 Active 332 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $30,000 Active 330 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $30,000 Active 329 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $30,000 Active 326 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $30,000 Active 325 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $30,000 Active 324 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $30,000 Active 323 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $30,000 Active 320 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $30,000 Active 319 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $30,000 Active 318 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $30,000 Active 317 DOM
17. 2026-05-11
    status Active
18. 2026-05-07
    historical
19. 2026-04-06
    status Active
20. 2026-03-07
    historical
21. 2026-03-03
    price $30,000
22. 2025-12-03
    status Active
23. 2025-11-29
    historical
24. 2025-10-14
    status Active
25. 2025-10-10
    historical
26. 2025-09-13
    price $40,000
27. 2025-09-09
    status Active
28. 2025-09-09
    historical
29. 2025-06-07
    listed $44,900 Active
30. 2024-11-07
    price $54,900
31. 2024-09-05
    price $64,500
32. 2024-05-07
    price $64,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,801
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,680
• − Property taxes: −$450
• − Insurance: −$150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$864
• − Management: −$864
• − Depreciation: −$873
• Taxable income: $5,920
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,421
• After-tax cash flow: $4,624/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gallup-Mckinley Cty Schools
• NCES district ID: 3501110
• Math proficiency: 17% —
• Reading proficiency: 30% —
• Median HH income: $30,298
• Composite: 22.01/100
• National rank: #13541
• State rank: #54 of 95 in NM

Livability — Thoreau

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #183
• US rank: #22634

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Thoreau, NM
• Population (ZIP): 3,702

Population outlook (McKinley County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,386 people
• By 2030: 94,451 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 107,369 · +21.5%
• By 2050: 119,937 · +35.7%
• By 2075: 148,818 · +68.4%
• By 2100: 160,771 · +81.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.95)
• Race & ethnicity: Native American 73% White 21% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Iranian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Tagalog/Filipino 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · McKinley

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.5) · D 60.7% · R 36.2% · Other 3.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.4pp toward R · 2008: 43.9pp · 2024: 24.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.5 2020: D+38.6 2016: D+39.8 2012: D+46.6 2008: D+43.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-53.5% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Relisted — NMMLS
• 2026-05-07 Delisted — NMMLS
• 2026-04-06 Relisted — NMMLS
• 2026-03-07 Delisted — NMMLS
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $30,000 NMMLS
• 2025-12-03 Relisted — NMMLS
• 2025-11-29 Delisted — NMMLS
• 2025-10-14 Relisted — NMMLS
• 2025-10-10 Delisted — NMMLS
• 2025-09-13 Price Changed $40,000 NMMLS
• 2025-09-09 Relisted — NMMLS
• 2025-09-09 Delisted — NMMLS
• 2025-06-07 Listed $44,900 NMMLS
• 2024-11-07 Price Changed $54,900 NMMLS
• 2024-09-05 Price Changed $64,500 NMMLS
• 2024-05-07 Price Changed $64,500 Southwest MLS