18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 91 Lot 91 · Valley Center, CA 92082

$109,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 166 Days on market

Manufactured home likely 55+ (park) Built 1974 Fair condition 10,267 sqft lot Garage $76/sqft · 48% below area Est $210k · 48% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -5.2

Listing remarks

GREAT LOCATION DIRECTLY ACROSS FROM THE CLUBHOUSE!! 1974 2 Bed, 2 bath, at 1440 esf. with a large garage. Priced for only $109,000!!! This is a nice, manufactured home in a Senior Park 55/45 with a lovely wood burning stove in the living room. The primary bedroom has a large walk-in closet and a deck that has a wonderful view of the local mountains. Located in lovely Skyline Ranch Country Club, a premier Senior Park that sits in the foothills of Valley Center. Currently offering FREE golf to all residents, full clubhouse use, gym, gated community, dog park, and much more. This home has a large back yard with mature fruit trees.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Dog park
• Mature fruit trees

Tags

• WOOD BURNING STOVE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• DECK WITH VIEW
• MATURE FRUIT TREES
• GATED COMMUNITY
• DOG PARK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $109k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $109k).
• Recommended offer: $96k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.4% vs local median 2.5% in Valley Center — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,017 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing B; Watch: commute C-, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Valley Center-Pauma Unified (rural): math 16% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #367 of 517 in CA (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Valley Center Primary (526 students, 48% FRL); Valley Center Middle (math 11% / reading 31%, grade F, #408 of 498 statewide, top 82%, 756 students, 41% FRL); Valley Center High (math 24% / reading 60%, grade F, #472 of 1,170 statewide, top 42%, 1,181 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools at 42% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 218 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $754 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 166 days — a 12% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $95,920 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 166 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 50.34%
• DSCR: 3.24
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $210,000
• List price: $109,000
• Delta: -33.81%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 176 Lot 176	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	1mo	$155,000	$108	93
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 121 Lot 121	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,392 (-3%)	1mo	$80,000	$57	88
18218 S PARADISE MOUNTAIN RD SPC 109	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	16mo	$140,000	$97	87
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd #129	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+7%)	2mo	$60,000	$39	82
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 145	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	17mo	$165,000	$115	82
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 105	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	16mo	$89,500	$62	81
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 150	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+7%)	11mo	$267,500	$174	80
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 79	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,530 (+6%)	13mo	$115,000	$75	79
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 10	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,306 (-9%)	12mo	$255,000	$195	69
18218 Paradise Mountaind Rd #174	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,532 (+6%)	13mo	$149,000	$97	67
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 211 Lot 211	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	6mo	$205,000	$164	67
18218 Paradise Mtn Spc 47	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+8%)	15mo	$100,000	$64	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 48.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.09×
• Total profit: $63,914
• Equity at exit: $16,252

10-year hold

• IRR: 53.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.27×
• Total profit: $160,807
• Equity at exit: $9,424

Cash invested: $30,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 21 active · 5 under contract
• Months of supply: 15.8 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $177,000 ($123/sqft)
• Median days on market: 145 d
• This list price: 5% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +18.5% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 92082

• Active inventory: 218
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,574 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$572
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$136 /mo · $1,635/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$541
• Net cashflow: $1,280

Break-even live

Break-even rent $954

Max offer price $109,000

Occupancy floor 45%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,356	-5% $1,318	+0% $1,280	+5% $1,243	+10% $1,205
Rent	-10% $1,077	-5% $1,179	+0% $1,280	+5% $1,382	+10% $1,484
Rate	-1.0pp $1,335	-0.5pp $1,308	base $1,280	+0.5pp $1,252	+1.0pp $1,223

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,250
• Closing costs: $3,270
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19286 Paradise Mountain Rd Valley Center, CA	3.0	2.0	1700	$4,145	$2.44	0d	1	0.70mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property condition: fixerBody type: double (multi-unit information)Pets allowed with restrictions (size limit, breed restrictions, number limit)
• Financial info: Land lease expires April 30, 2026
• HOA & community: Senior communityCommunity features: golf course, dog park, lake, street lightingLand lease: $1,750 monthly (land lease)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garageGarage (single door)2 garage spacesAttached carport1 carport spaceDriveway - concreteOff-street parkingTotal 3 parking spacesPark: Skyline Ranch Country Club
• Security: Gated communityCarbon monoxide detector(s)Smoke detectorManager approval required
• Utilities: Private sewerPropane availableElectricity connectedAccess road maintained (private road)Paved road surface
• Home design: Manufactured houseOne storyEntry at carport side doorModel: FairviewMobile home remains
• Construction: Aluminum construction materialsAluminum skirtComposition roofPier jacks foundationYear built: seller-providedMobile width 24 ft, length 60 ft
• Exterior features: AwningRear porchIn-ground heated spaCommunity pool (in-ground, filtered, heated, saltwater)Has patioCorner lotClose to clubhousePond on lotLake on lotHas view

Interior

• Kitchen: Garbage disposalRefrigeratorElectric ovenElectric stoveDishwasher
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (entry level: 1)
• Flooring: CarpetLaminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathroomsShower in tubWalk-in showerShower
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heatingCentral cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fanCarbon monoxide detector(s)Smoke detectorGated communityWalk-in closetPrimary bedroomPrimary bathroomLiving room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside in a separate roomWasher includedDryer included

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   pricedays on market $109,000 Active 166 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $139,000 Active 165 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $139,000 Active 164 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $139,000 Active 163 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $139,000 Active 162 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $139,000 Active 161 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $139,000 Active 160 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $139,000 Active 159 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $139,000 Active 158 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $139,000 Active 157 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $139,000 Active 156 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $139,000 Active 155 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $139,000 Active 154 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $139,000 Active 148 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $139,000 Active 147 DOM
16. 2026-09-03
    days on market $139,000 Active 146 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $139,000 Active 143 DOM
18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $139,000 Active 142 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $139,000 Active 141 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $139,000 Active 140 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $139,000 Active 139 DOM
22. 2026-08-26
    days on market $139,000 Active 138 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $139,000 Active 137 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $139,000 Active 136 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $139,000 Active 135 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $139,000 Active 134 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $139,000 Active 133 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $139,000 Active 132 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $139,000 Active 131 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $139,000 Active 130 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $139,000 Active 129 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $139,000 Active 128 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $139,000 Active 127 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    pricedays on market $139,000 Active 126 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $159,000 Active 125 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $159,000 Active 124 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $159,000 Active 123 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $159,000 Active 122 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $159,000 Active 121 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $159,000 Active 120 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $159,000 Active 118 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $159,000 Active 117 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $159,000 Active 116 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $159,000 Active 115 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $159,000 Active 112 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $159,000 Active 111 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $159,000 Active 110 DOM
48. 2026-07-28
    days on market $159,000 Active 109 DOM
49. 2026-07-26
    days on market $159,000 Active 107 DOM
50. 2026-07-24
    days on market $159,000 Active 105 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 1 d/yr ≥97°F today · 3 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,889
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,106
• − Property taxes: −$1,635
• − Insurance: −$545
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,471
• − Management: −$2,471
• − Depreciation: −$3,171
• Taxable income: $14,490
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,478
• After-tax cash flow: $11,885/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $36,000–$64,800 screening

This manufactured home requires moderate repairs and updates to improve its condition and value. Key areas for improvement include the kitchen, bathroom, and roof. Fresh paint and modern updates will significantly enhance its appeal.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate Kitchen cabinets — Dated appearance
• Moderate Bathroom fixtures — Dated appearance
• Moderate Roof — Aged appearance

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale Replace countertops — Modern countertops improve functionality ↑
• Resale Upgrade bathroom fixtures — Updated fixtures enhance bathroom appeal ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 32/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Valley Center Primary Middle Valley Center Middle F CA #408/498 Nat'l #11,464/14,009 High Valley Center High F CA #472/1,170 Nat'l #7,572/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Valley Center-Pauma Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600069
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $74,438
• Composite: 24.32/100
• National rank: #7705
• State rank: #367 of 517 in CA

D Composite livability gradescore 52/100

Livability — Valley Center

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #1017
• US rank: #24938

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: San Diego County · 3,678,185 people
• City population: 21,727
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 21,727
• Household income: $126,544
• Rent vs Own: 11.7% rent · 88.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

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Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 23% Native American 4% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 33%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 22% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -293.00%
• Current HPI: 294.6017
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property condition: fixerBody type: double (multi-unit information)Pets allowed with restrictions (size limit, breed restrictions, number limit)
• Financial info: Land lease expires April 30, 2026
• HOA & community: Senior communityCommunity features: golf course, dog park, lake, street lightingLand lease: $1,750 monthly (land lease)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garageGarage (single door)2 garage spacesAttached carport1 carport spaceDriveway - concreteOff-street parkingTotal 3 parking spacesPark: Skyline Ranch Country Club
• Security: Gated communityCarbon monoxide detector(s)Smoke detectorManager approval required
• Utilities: Private sewerPropane availableElectricity connectedAccess road maintained (private road)Paved road surface
• Home design: Manufactured houseOne storyEntry at carport side doorModel: FairviewMobile home remains
• Construction: Aluminum construction materialsAluminum skirtComposition roofPier jacks foundationYear built: seller-providedMobile width 24 ft, length 60 ft
• Exterior features: AwningRear porchIn-ground heated spaCommunity pool (in-ground, filtered, heated, saltwater)Has patioCorner lotClose to clubhousePond on lotLake on lotHas view

Interior

• Kitchen: Garbage disposalRefrigeratorElectric ovenElectric stoveDishwasher
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (entry level: 1)
• Flooring: CarpetLaminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathroomsShower in tubWalk-in showerShower
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heatingCentral cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fanCarbon monoxide detector(s)Smoke detectorGated communityWalk-in closetPrimary bedroomPrimary bathroomLiving room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside in a separate roomWasher includedDryer included

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Listed $159,000 CRMLS