12455 Rocket Dr · Black Jack, MO 63033

$229,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,030 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1973 0.27 ac lot $113/sqft · at area comps Est $229k · at est. $20/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.2/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.3/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks

Great Home!!! The St Louis County occupancy inspection is Completed!!! This home is ready for You to Enjoy!!! This house sets on A Large Lot, It's a Large Ranch home, with a Large Master Bedroom with sitting area, a large entry foyer, updated kitchen and bathrooms, some newer flooring and windows. Separate Living room and Dining room, Main floor family room with woodburning fireplace, main floor laundry room, with a large unfinished lower level. All the kitchen appliance to stay with the home.

Key facts

• 0.27 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1973

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area reported as 2,030 sq ft (public records)
• HOA & community: Part of Paddock Forest HOA; Annual HOA fee of $245 (covers common area maintenance and management); Association management and resident management

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service (Ameren); Cable available; Natural gas connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; Attached property; One story; House structure
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding; Basement present; Shored with poured concrete basement (8 ft+)
• Exterior features: Deck; Front porch; Private entrance; Storm doors; Adjoins open ground; Asphalt road access (county road)

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Built-in electric oven; Wall oven; Dishwasher; Disposal; Exhaust fan; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Pantry; Storage; Main-level laundry; 8 total rooms; Basement with 8 ft+ poured concrete; Fireplace in family room (masonry, wood-burning)
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $205 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $224k (2.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $224k (2.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#132 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Hazelwood (suburban): math 11% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #306 of 324 in MO (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Townsend Elem. (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,007 of 1,115 statewide, top 91%, 371 students, 78% FRL); Central Middle (math 12% / reading 25%, grade F, #348 of 391 statewide, top 89%, 707 students, 68% FRL); Hazelwood Central High (math 12% / reading 33%, grade F, #455 of 521 statewide, top 88%, 1,628 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 221 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 7.5% rent growth), your $64k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $165k; 39% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $224,158 (2.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.82%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $228,663
• List price: $229,900
• Delta: 0.54%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12455 Rocket Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0	2,030 (0%)	1mo	$229,900	$113	99
6271 Sandycreek Ct	0.11mi	4/3.0	2,062 (+2%)	4mo	$225,000	$109	85
6268 Lake Paddock Dr	0.27mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,923 (-5%)	1mo	$159,900	$83	70
5348 Trailoaks Dr	0.58mi	4/3.0	1,925 (-5%)	3mo	$214,000	$111	58
5325 Springtrail Dr	0.50mi	4/3.0	1,831 (-10%)	2mo	$250,000	$137	55
6945 Lakeside Hills Dr	0.71mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,960 (-3%)	1mo	$240,000	$122	51
6805 Trois Ct	0.55mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,813 (-11%)	2mo	$199,000	$110	48
12050 Maidstone Ct	0.65mi	4/2.5	1,794 (-12%)	2mo	$200,000	$111	47
12796 Merribrook Dr	0.54mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,818 (-10%)	2mo	$215,000	$118	46
12974 Partridge Run Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,203 (+8%)	4mo	$299,900	$136	45
5227 Suntrail Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,728 (-15%)	2mo	$200,000	$116	42
5172 Trailbend Dr	0.69mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,855 (-9%)	4mo	$170,000	$92	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 7.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.31×
• Total profit: $148,922
• Equity at exit: $207,112

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.4%
• Equity multiple: 8.06×
• Total profit: $454,166
• Equity at exit: $446,645

Cash invested: $64,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63033

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Rents YoY: 7.5%
• Active inventory: 221
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,242 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$244 /mo · $2,933/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$20
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$471
• Net cashflow: $205

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,982

Max offer price $229,900

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $335	-5% $270	+0% $205	+5% $140	+10% $75
Rent	-10% $28	-5% $116	+0% $205	+5% $294	+10% $382
Rate	-1.0pp $321	-0.5pp $264	base $205	+0.5pp $145	+1.0pp $85

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,475
• Closing costs: $6,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5320 Springtrail Dr Black Jack, MO	4.0	2.5	1712	$2,390	$1.40	23d	1	0.52mi
5364 Trailview Dr Black Jack, MO	4.0	3.0	1992	$2,330	$1.17	23d	1	0.58mi
12303 Benham Rd Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	1845	$1,721	$0.93	0d	1	0.81mi
12810 Verwood Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	1408	$2,026	$1.44	45d	1	0.81mi
1911 Redman Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1454	$1,495	$1.03	3d	1	1.25mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $20 · $240/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending 498-char remark
2. 2026-05-01
   listed $229,900 Active 498-char remark
3. 2026-04-28
   historical $229,900 498-char remark
4. 2007-01-05
   soldstatus $165,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,933 · $244/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,933 · $244/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,899
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,878
• − Property taxes: −$2,933
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,152
• − Management: −$2,152
• − HOA: −$240
• − Depreciation: −$6,688
• Taxable loss: −$1,293
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$310
• After-tax cash flow: $2,771/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hazelwood
• NCES district ID: 2913830
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,621
• Composite: 16.77/100
• National rank: #9156
• State rank: #306 of 324 in MO

Livability — Black Jack

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #7706

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 69,104
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 43,056
• Household income: $66,776
• Rent vs Own: 33.4% rent · 66.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1429.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 71% White 23% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.78%
• Current HPI: 570.6
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.51%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+39.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-04 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Listed $229,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-28 Coming Soon $229,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-01-05 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2022): $2,933 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.