None · Black Jack, MO 63033

$165,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,073 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1966 0.29 ac lot Est $253k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully renovated * 4 Bdrms* 2 Full Baths* Sep Living Room and Dining Room* W/b fireplace in main floor Family Room- great for cold winter days* Updated Kitchen with granite countertops and SS appliances

Key facts

• 0.29 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1966

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service provided by Ameren; Cable available; Phone available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Brick veneer and frame construction
• Exterior features: Level lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Wood-burning fireplace in the family room; Central air

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $515 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 6.2% in Black Jack — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#132 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Hazelwood (suburban): math 11% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #306 of 324 in MO (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Townsend Elem. (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,007 of 1,115 statewide, top 91%, 371 students, 78% FRL); Central Middle (math 12% / reading 25%, grade F, #348 of 391 statewide, top 89%, 707 students, 68% FRL); Hazelwood Central High (math 12% / reading 33%, grade F, #455 of 521 statewide, top 88%, 1,628 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 221 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 7.5% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask is 18% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $165k implies a 154% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $165,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.37%
• DSCR: 1.60
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $252,906
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12455 Rocket Dr	0.19mi	4/2.0	2,030 (-2%)	1mo	$229,900	$113	87
6271 Sandycreek Ct	0.27mi	4/3.0	2,062 (-0%)	4mo	$225,000	$109	79
6268 Lake Paddock Dr	0.34mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,923 (-7%)	1mo	$159,900	$83	64
6945 Lakeside Hills Dr	0.52mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,960 (-6%)	1mo	$240,000	$122	57
12768 Coachlight Square Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,943 (-6%)	1mo	$275,000	$142	53
6805 Trois Ct	0.39mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,813 (-12%)	2mo	$199,000	$110	52
6919 Glenvale Ct	0.68mi	4/3.0	2,224 (+7%)	1mo	$274,900	$124	51
12974 Partridge Run Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,203 (+6%)	4mo	$299,900	$136	51
12713 Partridge Run Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,796 (-13%)	8mo	$265,000	$148	50
12796 Merribrook Dr	0.41mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,818 (-12%)	2mo	$215,000	$118	49
5325 Springtrail Dr	0.69mi	4/3.0	1,831 (-12%)	2mo	$250,000	$137	43
5421 Trailbend Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,820 (-12%)	10mo	$193,500	$106	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 7.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.88×
• Total profit: $133,175
• Equity at exit: $148,645

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.1%
• Equity multiple: 9.48×
• Total profit: $391,915
• Equity at exit: $320,559

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63033

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Rents YoY: 7.5%
• Active inventory: 221
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,199 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$289 /mo · $3,463/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $515

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,548

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $608	-5% $562	+0% $515	+5% $468	+10% $421
Rent	-10% $341	-5% $428	+0% $515	+5% $602	+10% $689
Rate	-1.0pp $598	-0.5pp $557	base $515	+0.5pp $472	+1.0pp $429

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12303 Benham Rd Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	1845	$1,721	$0.93	0d	1	0.64mi
12810 Verwood Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	1408	$2,026	$1.44	45d	1	0.67mi
5320 Springtrail Dr Black Jack, MO	4.0	2.5	1712	$2,390	$1.40	23d	1	0.70mi
5364 Trailview Dr Black Jack, MO	4.0	3.0	1992	$2,330	$1.17	23d	1	0.76mi
1911 Redman Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1454	$1,495	$1.03	3d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-05-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-16
   status Active
3. 2026-05-14
   status Pending
4. 2026-05-09
   status Active
5. 2026-05-09
   price $165,000
6. 2026-03-05
   status Pending
7. 2026-03-03
   listed $140,000 Active
8. 2020-05-08
   soldstatus
9. 2020-04-01
   soldstatus Closed 207-char remark

   Show marketing remark (207 chars)

   Beautifully renovated * 4 Bdrms* 2 Full Baths* Sep Living Room and Dining Room* W/b fireplace in main floor Family Room- great for cold winter days* Updated Kitchen with granite countertops and SS appliances

10. 2020-02-23
    status Pending 207-char remark

    Show marketing remark (207 chars)

    Beautifully renovated * 4 Bdrms* 2 Full Baths* Sep Living Room and Dining Room* W/b fireplace in main floor Family Room- great for cold winter days* Updated Kitchen with granite countertops and SS appliances

11. 2020-02-05
    price $164,900 207-char remark

    Show marketing remark (207 chars)

    Beautifully renovated * 4 Bdrms* 2 Full Baths* Sep Living Room and Dining Room* W/b fireplace in main floor Family Room- great for cold winter days* Updated Kitchen with granite countertops and SS appliances

12. 2020-01-15
    price $169,900 207-char remark

    Show marketing remark (207 chars)

    Beautifully renovated * 4 Bdrms* 2 Full Baths* Sep Living Room and Dining Room* W/b fireplace in main floor Family Room- great for cold winter days* Updated Kitchen with granite countertops and SS appliances

13. 2019-12-06
    status Active 207-char remark

    Show marketing remark (207 chars)

    Beautifully renovated * 4 Bdrms* 2 Full Baths* Sep Living Room and Dining Room* W/b fireplace in main floor Family Room- great for cold winter days* Updated Kitchen with granite countertops and SS appliances

14. 2019-12-06
    historical 207-char remark

    Show marketing remark (207 chars)

    Beautifully renovated * 4 Bdrms* 2 Full Baths* Sep Living Room and Dining Room* W/b fireplace in main floor Family Room- great for cold winter days* Updated Kitchen with granite countertops and SS appliances

15. 2019-11-13
    listed $179,900 Active 207-char remark

    Show marketing remark (207 chars)

    Beautifully renovated * 4 Bdrms* 2 Full Baths* Sep Living Room and Dining Room* W/b fireplace in main floor Family Room- great for cold winter days* Updated Kitchen with granite countertops and SS appliances

16. 2019-05-23
    status Pending 148-char remark

    Show marketing remark (148 chars)

    Short Sale Opportunity in Paddock Forrest Subdivision. 4 bedrooms 2 baths 2 car garage. Spacious 1764 square foot Ranch ready for your total Rehab!

17. 2019-05-06
    soldstatus Closed 148-char remark

    Show marketing remark (148 chars)

    Short Sale Opportunity in Paddock Forrest Subdivision. 4 bedrooms 2 baths 2 car garage. Spacious 1764 square foot Ranch ready for your total Rehab!

18. 2019-05-06
    soldstatus $65,000

    Show marketing remark (148 chars)

    Short Sale Opportunity in Paddock Forrest Subdivision. 4 bedrooms 2 baths 2 car garage. Spacious 1764 square foot Ranch ready for your total Rehab!

19. 2018-10-23
    historical Contingent (Short Sale) 148-char remark

    Show marketing remark (148 chars)

    Short Sale Opportunity in Paddock Forrest Subdivision. 4 bedrooms 2 baths 2 car garage. Spacious 1764 square foot Ranch ready for your total Rehab!

20. 2018-10-14
    listed $50,000 Active 148-char remark

    Show marketing remark (148 chars)

    Short Sale Opportunity in Paddock Forrest Subdivision. 4 bedrooms 2 baths 2 car garage. Spacious 1764 square foot Ranch ready for your total Rehab!

21. 1997-06-09
    soldstatus $108,900
22. 1993-12-01
    soldstatus
23. 1985-06-01
    soldstatus $77,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,463 · $289/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,463 · $289/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,393
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$3,463
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,111
• − Management: −$2,111
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $3,839
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$921
• After-tax cash flow: $5,257/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hazelwood
• NCES district ID: 2913830
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,621
• Composite: 16.77/100
• National rank: #9156
• State rank: #306 of 324 in MO

Livability — Black Jack

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #7706

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 42,258
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 43,056
• Household income: $66,776
• Rent vs Own: 33.4% rent · 66.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1429.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 71% White 23% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.78%
• Current HPI: 570.6
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.51%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+111.8% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-16 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-14 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-09 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $165,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-05 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-03 Listed $140,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-05-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-04-01 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-02-23 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-02-05 Price Changed $164,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-01-15 Price Changed $169,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-12-06 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-12-06 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-11-13 Listed $179,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-23 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-06 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2019-05-06 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-10-23 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-10-14 Listed $50,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-06-09 Sold (Public Records) $108,900 Public Records
• 1993-12-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1985-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $77,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2022): $3,463 · +5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.