7613 Marys Creek Dr · Fort Worth, TX 76116

$138,999

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1945 Est $163k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Cute 1 bedroom, 1 bath offers creekside views, fenced backyard and a spacious front porch. The large bedroom has 2 closets and access to the back deck. The bathroom features a beautiful claw foot tub. Perfect starter home! This one won& apos; t last long!

Key facts

• Access to back deck
• Creekside views
• Spacious front porch

Tags

• CREEKSIDE VIEWS
• FENCED BACKYARD
• SPACIOUS FRONT PORCH
• ACCESS TO BACK DECK
• CLAW FOOT TUB

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family home built in 1945; One-story
• Construction: 720 living area
• Exterior features: Located in the Bomber Heights subdivision

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $172 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $139k).
• Recommended offer: $135k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.5% vs local median 3.9% in Fort Worth — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#49 in TX, #1,954 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F.
• Fort Worth ISD (urban): math 18% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #742 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 209 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($135k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $134,829 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.46%
• DSCR: 1.82
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $162,720
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5117 Pamela Dr	0.19mi	2/1.0 (-1)	760 (+6%)	7mo	$189,000	$249	71
4932 Royal Dr	0.39mi	2/1.0 (-1)	720 (0%)	8mo	$149,900	$208	70
5033 Royal Dr	0.22mi	2/1.0 (-1)	765 (+6%)	11mo	$117,500	$154	66
4941 Gilbert Dr	0.46mi	2/1.0 (-1)	754 (+5%)	0mo	$144,900	$192	65
7429 Culver Ave	0.57mi	2/1.0 (-1)	754 (+5%)	1mo	$185,000	$245	60
4709 Mayfair St	0.50mi	3/2.0	744 (+3%)	8mo	$185,000	$249	60
5061 Royal Dr	0.16mi	2/1.0 (-1)	820 (+14%)	9mo	$185,000	$226	57
4816 Marks Pl	0.73mi	2/1.0 (-1)	725 (+1%)	6mo	$185,000	$255	55
4944 Royal Dr	0.37mi	2/1.0 (-1)	800 (+11%)	10mo	$159,900	$200	51
4817 Marks Pl	0.75mi	2/1.0 (-1)	761 (+6%)	0mo	$135,000	$177	50
4945 Gilbert Dr	0.46mi	2/1.0 (-1)	822 (+14%)	3mo	$200,000	$243	48
7433 Mohawk Ave	0.71mi	2/1.0 (-1)	761 (+6%)	9mo	$165,900	$218	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-13,594
• Equity at exit: $20,725

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-5,835
• Equity at exit: $12,018

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76116

• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 209
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,846 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$73 /mo · $876/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
• Net cashflow: $172

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,628

Max offer price $138,999

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4709 Mayfair St Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	744	$1,895	$2.55	2d	1	0.49mi
4300 Old Benbrook Rd Fort Worth, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	743	$1,300	$1.75	3d	12	0.75mi
8601 Cook Ranch Rd Benbrook, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	968	$2,741	$2.83	1d	7	0.82mi
301 Mercedes St Benbrook, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1262	$2,060	$1.63	2d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $138,999 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $138,999 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $138,999 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $138,999 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $138,999 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $138,999 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $138,999 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $138,999 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $138,999 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $138,999 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $138,999 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $138,999 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $138,999 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-05-13
    listed $138,999 Active 248-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $876 · $73/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,544 · $212/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,668/yr (+$139/mo · 190.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 96% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 24% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,153
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$876
• − Insurance: −$5,813
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,772
• − Management: −$1,772
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable income: $90
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$22
• After-tax cash flow: $2,043/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Worth ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819700
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $42,109
• Composite: 19.61/100
• National rank: #8753
• State rank: #742 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fort Worth

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #49
• US rank: #1954

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fort Worth, TX
• County: Tarrant County · 2,033,669 people
• City population: 911,619
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 49,856
• Household income: $56,187
• Rent vs Own: 63.3% rent · 36.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 4188.0

Population outlook (Tarrant County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,380,417 people
• By 2030: 2,578,900 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 2,974,995 · +25.0%
• By 2050: 3,350,489 · +40.8%
• By 2075: 4,216,909 · +77.2%
• By 2100: 4,741,527 · +99.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 27% Black 20% Two or more races 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tarrant

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.1) · D 46.7% · R 51.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -5.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.1 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+8.7 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -283.10%
• Current HPI: 282.3806
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.77%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed $138,999 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $876 · -2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.