1809 Snow Dr · Alamogordo, NM 88310

$179,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,449 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 53 Days on market

Built 1959 7,013 sqft lot Est $165k · 9% over ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.7/30.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• ARV discount +3.5/15.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

House hunting? Put this one at the top of your list! This 3-bed, 1.75-bath home has room to live, relax, and make memories. Updated windows help keep things comfy no matter the season, and the remodeled kitchen is ready for everything from quick breakfasts to big family dinners. Don’t miss your chance to call this one home, schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Updated windows
• Remodeled kitchen
• 7,013 sq ft lot

Tags

• UPDATED WINDOWS
• REMODELED KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $277 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (3.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $174k (3.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#5 in NM, #3,233 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, employment D, schools F.
• Alamogordo Public Schools (town): math 26% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #26 of 95 in NM (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 444 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6 units permitted in Otero County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Otero County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 8→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $174,347 (3.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.60%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $165,186
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2364 Apache Ln	0.46mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,588 (+10%)	18mo	$180,701	$114	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-13,904
• Equity at exit: $26,824

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $1,033
• Equity at exit: $15,554

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88310

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 444
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,743 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$82 /mo · $983/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$366
• Net cashflow: $277

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,393

Max offer price $179,900

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2201 Mesa Ln Alamogordo, NM	3.0	2.0	1408	$3,000	$2.13	24d	1	0.40mi
2360 Mesa Ln Alamogordo, NM	3.0	2.0	1173	$1,600	$1.36	24d	1	0.48mi
1514 Utah Ave Alamogordo, NM	2.0	1.0	1119	$1,450	$1.30	14d	1	0.51mi
1502 Campbell Pl Alamogordo, NM	3.0	2.0	1816	$1,450	$0.80	24d	1	0.56mi
1301 Jefferson Ave Unit LAST ONE AVAILABLE!! Alamogordo, NM	2.0	2.0	892	$1,425	$1.60	3d	1	0.63mi
2606 Pontiac Dr Alamogordo, NM	3.0	2.0	1785	$1,650	$0.92	24d	1	0.66mi
2300 Aspen Dr Alamogordo, NM	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,400	$1.02	3d	1	0.68mi
1301 Fillmore Ave Alamogordo, NM	2.0	1.0	967	$1,095	$1.13	44d	2	0.73mi
2116 N Scenic Dr Apt A1 Alamogordo, NM	2.0	1.0	957	$950	$0.99	24d	1	0.88mi
2637 Las Alturas Ct Alamogordo, NM	3.0	2.0	1366	$1,600	$1.17	44d	1	1.17mi
1309 Jackson Ave Alamogordo, NM	4.0	2.0	1467	$1,500	$1.02	44d	1	1.21mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-15
   status Active
3. 2026-04-01
   status Pending
4. 2026-03-20
   price $179,900
5. 2026-02-20
   listed $185,000 Active
6. 2007-07-30
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $983 · $82/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,439 · $120/mo
• Expected delta: +$456/yr (+$38/mo · 46.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥98°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,922
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$983
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,674
• − Management: −$1,674
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable income: $381
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$91
• After-tax cash flow: $3,233/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alamogordo Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3500030
• Math proficiency: 26% —
• Reading proficiency: 39% —
• Median HH income: $42,194
• Composite: 30.24/100
• National rank: #11572
• State rank: #26 of 95 in NM

Livability — Alamogordo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #5
• US rank: #3233

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Alamogordo, NM
• County: Otero County · 36,983 people
• City population: 36,983
• Metro: Alamogordo, NM
• Population (ZIP): 36,983
• Household income: $57,214
• Rent vs Own: 34.4% rent · 65.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1231.0

Population outlook (Otero County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,967 people
• By 2030: 62,164 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 60,253 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 58,575 · -7.0%
• By 2075: 55,411 · -12.0%
• By 2100: 48,551 · -22.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 18% Black 5% Asian 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Otero

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.0) · D 35.4% · R 62.4% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -27.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.0 2020: R+25.6 2016: R+29.1 2012: R+28.0 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -174.88%
• Current HPI: 181.737
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.65%
• Metro: Alamogordo, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-2.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — OCAOR
• 2026-04-15 Relisted — OCAOR
• 2026-04-01 Pending — OCAOR
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $179,900 OCAOR
• 2026-02-20 Listed $185,000 OCAOR
• 2007-07-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $983 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.