Plan 1838 Plan · Tomball, TX 77377

$258,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,838 sqft · SingleFamily · 651 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 650 days

Tags

• TANKLESS WATER HEATER
• GRANITE KITCHEN COUNTERTOPS

🏗️ New construction. The $258,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $321,997.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $259k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-406 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (11.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $228k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.0% in Tomball — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#155 in TX, #4,239 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Tomball ISD (suburban): math 66% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #25 of 826 in TX (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Rosehill El (math 29% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,883 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 695 students, 56% FRL); Tomball Int (math 55% / reading 45%, grade C, #347 of 1,662 statewide, top 21%, 988 students, 46% FRL); Tomball H S (math 74% / reading 69%, grade B+, #111 of 1,632 statewide, top 7%, 2,801 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools average 46% FRL vs 26% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 905 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 651 days — a 12% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $36k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $227,915 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 651 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.41%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $321,997
• List price: $258,995
• Delta: -19.57%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22110 Heartwood Elm Trl	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,784 (-3%)	9mo	$322,858	$181	82
18314 Hidden Dahlia Dr	0.42mi	3/2.5	1,780 (-3%)	1mo	$281,053	$158	72
22539 Royal Pecan Dr	0.52mi	3/2.5	1,780 (-3%)	5mo	$256,473	$144	64
18902 Misty Ln	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,783 (-3%)	2mo	$415,000	$233	63
18211 Spruce Cottage Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,675 (-9%)	2mo	$282,771	$169	61
22430 Birch Bud Ln	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,675 (-9%)	8mo	$269,995	$161	60
18211 Hidden Dahlia Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	2,003 (+9%)	8mo	$279,995	$140	59
18202 Hidden Dahlia Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	2,003 (+9%)	10mo	$298,149	$149	57
18615 Scarlet Meadow Ln	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,783 (-3%)	2mo	$280,000	$157	56
18215 Spruce Cottage Dr	0.41mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,003 (+9%)	2mo	$299,995	$150	55
22606 Rosy Heights Trl	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,677 (-9%)	4mo	$259,900	$155	49
17703 Chartertree Ln	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,652 (-10%)	3mo	$278,900	$169	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-84,761
• Equity at exit: $48,011

10-year hold

• IRR: -46.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.48×
• Total profit: $-133,058
• Equity at exit: $27,840

Cash invested: $90,159 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 40 active · 25 under contract
• Months of supply: 10.9 mo (9%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $311,418 ($171/sqft)
• Median days on market: 80 d
• This list price: 10% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +2.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77377

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 905
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,303 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,689
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$402 /mo · $4,830/yr
• Insurance: −$134
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$484
• Net cashflow: $-406

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,817

Max offer price $263,221

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-184	-5% $-295	+0% $-406	+5% $-517	+10% $-629
Rent	-10% $-588	-5% $-497	+0% $-406	+5% $-315	+10% $-224
Rate	-1.0pp $-244	-0.5pp $-324	base $-406	+0.5pp $-490	+1.0pp $-575

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,499
• Closing costs: $9,660
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22406 Birch Bud Ln Tomball, TX	3.0	2.0	1850	$2,199	$1.19	7d	1	0.34mi
18106 Zemira Ln Tomball, TX	4.0	2.5	2317	$3,290	$1.42	4d	1	0.86mi
22906 Ephesus Ave Tomball, TX	3.0	2.5	2562	$2,495	$0.97	31d	1	0.96mi
21027 Twining Rose Ln Tomball, TX	3.0	2.0	1612	$1,799	$1.12	21d	1	0.97mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $258,995 Active 651 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $258,995 Active 649 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $258,995 Active 648 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $258,995 Active 647 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $258,995 Active 646 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $258,995 Active 643 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $258,995 Active 641 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $258,995 Active 640 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $258,995 Active 638 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $258,995 Active 636 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $258,995 Active 635 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $258,995 Active 634 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $258,995 Active 633 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $258,995 Active 632 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $258,995 Active 630 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $258,995 Active 629 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $258,995 Active 628 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $258,995 Active 627 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $258,995 Active 626 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    price $258,995 Active 625 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $256,995 Active 625 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $256,995 Active 624 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $256,995 Active 623 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $256,995 Active 622 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $256,995 Active 621 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $256,995 Active 619 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $256,995 Active 618 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $256,995 Active 617 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $256,995 Active 616 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $256,995 Active 615 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $256,995 Active 614 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $256,995 Active 613 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $256,995 Active 612 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $256,995 Active 611 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $256,995 Active 610 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $256,995 Active 609 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $256,995 Active 608 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $256,995 Active 606 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $256,995 Active 603 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $256,995 Active 600 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $256,995 Active 599 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $256,995 Active 598 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $256,995 Active 597 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $256,995 Active 595 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $256,995 Active 594 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $256,995 Active 591 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $256,995 Active 590 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $256,995 Active 589 DOM
49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $256,995 Active 586 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $256,995 Active 585 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,631
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,037
• − Property taxes: −$4,830
• − Insurance: −$1,610
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,211
• − Management: −$2,211
• − Depreciation: −$9,367
• Taxable loss: −$10,634
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,552
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,322/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It is move-in ready and has a well-maintained exterior and interior, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics, making the home more attractive to potential buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can improve the overall appearance and increase the home's value by making it more appealing to potential buyers and renters. ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 53/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Rosehill El F TX #1,883/4,322 Nat'l #22,441/41,679 Middle Tomball Int C TX #347/1,662 Nat'l #3,460/14,009 High Tomball H S B+ TX #111/1,632 Nat'l #2,009/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tomball ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842960
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $86,552
• Composite: 58.32/100
• National rank: #1014
• State rank: #25 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 75/100

Livability — Tomball

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #155
• US rank: #4239

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• City population: 113,991
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 41,680
• Household income: $129,327
• Rent vs Own: 15.7% rent · 84.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 5% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 12% Asian 9% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.14%
• Current HPI: 235.031
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.69%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-12.9% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-27 Price Changed $256,995 Zillow
• 2025-12-09 Price Changed $254,995 Zillow
• 2025-12-01 Price Changed $252,995 Zillow
• 2025-11-18 Price Changed $250,995 Zillow
• 2025-11-10 Price Changed $245,995 Zillow
• 2025-09-16 Price Changed $243,995 Zillow
• 2025-07-26 Price Changed $239,995 Zillow
• 2025-06-12 Price Changed $244,995 Zillow
• 2025-05-17 Price Changed $254,995 Zillow
• 2025-05-02 Price Changed $264,995 Zillow
• 2025-04-10 Price Changed $269,995 Zillow
• 2025-04-10 Relisted — Zillow
• 2024-12-19 Delisted — Zillow
• 2024-11-01 Relisted — Zillow
• 2024-10-01 Delisted — Zillow
• 2024-09-05 Price Changed $264,995 Zillow
• 2024-09-04 Relisted — Zillow
• 2024-09-04 Price Changed $274,995 Zillow
• 2024-08-01 Delisted — Zillow
• 2024-07-13 Price Changed $284,995 Zillow
• 2024-06-13 Price Changed $289,995 Zillow
• 2024-05-01 Listed $294,995 Zillow