414 Penn St · Hollidaysburg, PA 16648

$164,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,615 sqft · SingleFamily · 38 Days on market

Built 1870 Est $224k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 BR 1.5 BA 2 story on borough lot. Eat in kitchen leads to back porch overlooking fenced yard.

Key facts

• Wood windows
• Wood siding
• Built 1870

Tags

• ORIGINAL PINE FLOORING
• WOOD SIDING
• WOOD WINDOWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $154 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $164k (0.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $160k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#184 in PA, #1,549 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Hollidaysburg Area SD (suburban): math 45% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #129 of 539 in PA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 86 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 99 units permitted in Blair County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Blair County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $120k; 37% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1870 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $159,953 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1870 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.00%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $224,485
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
619 Mulberry St	0.13mi	3/1.5	1,628 (+1%)	4mo	$125,000	$77	87
419 Penn St	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,740 (+8%)	4mo	$200,000	$115	82
511 Pine St	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,519 (-6%)	5mo	$265,000	$174	77
1006 Union St	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,623 (+0%)	2mo	$320,000	$197	77
1307 Spruce St	0.43mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,596 (-1%)	10mo	$165,000	$103	65
806 Jones St	0.28mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,477 (-8%)	6mo	$212,500	$144	62
439 E Fir St	0.57mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,629 (+1%)	4mo	$269,900	$166	62
423 Cedar Blvd	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-7%)	6mo	$280,000	$187	59
708 Blair St	0.23mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,792 (+11%)	10mo	$110,000	$61	56
125 Broad St	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-11%)	6mo	$200,000	$139	53
408 Cedar Blvd	0.52mi	3/1.5	1,840 (+14%)	2mo	$230,000	$125	49
314 Hart St	0.44mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,440 (-11%)	5mo	$180,000	$125	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-16,896
• Equity at exit: $24,587

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-1,997
• Equity at exit: $14,258

Cash invested: $46,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16648

• Home prices YoY: -32.1%
• Active inventory: 86
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,635 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$204 /mo · $2,452/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$343
• Net cashflow: $154

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,440

Max offer price $164,900

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $247	-5% $201	+0% $154	+5% $107	+10% $61
Rent	-10% $25	-5% $89	+0% $154	+5% $218	+10% $283
Rate	-1.0pp $237	-0.5pp $196	base $154	+0.5pp $111	+1.0pp $68

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,225
• Closing costs: $4,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1152 Four Leaf Ln Hollidaysburg, PA	2.0–3.0	1.5–2.0	1517	$1,635	$1.08	44d	8	1.06mi

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $164,900 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $164,900 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $164,900 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   price $164,900 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,900 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,900 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $169,900 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,900 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $169,900 Active 29 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $169,900 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $169,900 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $169,900 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $169,900 Active 23 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,900 Active 22 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,900 Active 21 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,900 Active 20 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,900 Active 19 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $169,900 Active 18 DOM
19. 2026-05-12
    listed $169,900 Active 382-char remark
20. 2021-11-23
    soldstatus $120,000
21. 2021-11-22
    soldstatus $115,000

    Show marketing remark (95 chars)

    3 BR 1.5 BA 2 story on borough lot. Eat in kitchen leads to back porch overlooking fenced yard.

22. 2021-09-28
    listed $124,900

    Show marketing remark (95 chars)

    3 BR 1.5 BA 2 story on borough lot. Eat in kitchen leads to back porch overlooking fenced yard.

23. 2018-05-21
    soldstatus $132,500
24. 2015-05-08
    listed $133,000
25. 2013-09-27
    soldstatus $120,000
26. 2013-09-27
    soldstatus $120,000
27. 2013-05-28
    listed $122,000
28. 2007-05-29
    soldstatus $99,000
29. 2007-05-29
    soldstatus $99,000
30. 2007-05-29
    soldstatus $99,000
31. 2007-04-07
    listed $105,000
32. 2000-05-19
    soldstatus $54,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,452 · $204/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,529 · $211/mo
• Expected delta: +$77/yr (+$6/mo · 3.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,620
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,237
• − Property taxes: −$2,452
• − Insurance: −$824
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,570
• − Management: −$1,570
• − Depreciation: −$4,797
• Taxable loss: −$829
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$199
• After-tax cash flow: $2,046/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hollidaysburg Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4211940
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $50,676
• Composite: 46.1/100
• National rank: #2511
• State rank: #129 of 539 in PA

Livability — Hollidaysburg

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #1549

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hollidaysburg, PA
• Population (ZIP): 14,722

Population outlook (Blair County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 121,571 people
• By 2030: 117,966 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 109,174 · -10.2%
• By 2050: 99,542 · -18.1%
• By 2075: 76,775 · -36.8%
• By 2100: 54,326 · -55.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Iranian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Blair

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.5) · D 27.9% · R 71.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.2pp toward R · 2008: -24.3pp · 2024: -43.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.5 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.4 2012: R+33.5 2008: R+24.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.77%
• Current HPI: 164.7441
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+205.4% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $164,900 FSBO.com
• 2026-05-12 Listed $169,900 FSBO.com
• 2021-11-23 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 2021-11-22 Sold (MLS) $115,000 AHARMLS
• 2021-09-28 Listed $124,900 AHARMLS
• 2018-05-21 Sold (Public Records) $132,500 Public Records
• 2015-05-08 Listed $133,000 AHARMLS
• 2013-09-27 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 2013-09-27 Sold (MLS) $120,000 AHARMLS
• 2013-05-28 Listed $122,000 AHARMLS
• 2007-05-29 Sold (Public Records) $99,000 Public Records
• 2007-05-29 Sold (Public Records) $99,000 Public Records
• 2007-05-29 Sold (MLS) $99,000 AHARMLS
• 2007-04-07 Listed $105,000 AHARMLS
• 2000-05-19 Sold (Public Records) $54,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,452 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.