4694 Ernest Dr · Forest Park, GA 30297

$165,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,545 sqft · Townhouse public records · 7 Days on market

Built 2005 827 sqft lot $107/sqft · 19% below area Est $204k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

EXTREMELY NICE THREE-LEVEL TOWNHOME NEAR EXPRESSWAY SYSTEMS, HARTSFIELD/JACKSON AIRPORT, CLAYTON STATE UNIVERSITY, SOUTHERN REGIONAL HOSPITAL, AND SHOPPING. EASY ACCESS TO DOWNTOWN ATLANTA. 3 BEDROOMS AND 2.5 BATHS, this property is poised to cater to your every need. Don't miss the opportunity to make this incredible house your home!

Key facts

• Near shopping
• Three-level townhome
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• THREE-LEVEL TOWNHOME
• NEAR EXPRESSWAY SYSTEMS
• NEAR CLAYTON STATE UNIVERSITY
• NEAR SHOPPING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $89 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 5.2% in Forest Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#209 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: schools F, crime F, commute F.
• Clayton County (suburban): math 11% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #155 of 174 in GA (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 128 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 865 units permitted in Clayton County in 2024 (448 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($45k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clayton County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $165,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.03%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $204,259
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -21.72%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
971 Astor Ave	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,558 (+1%)	23mo	$195,000	$125	75

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-25,862
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-33,674
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30297

• Home prices YoY: -29.5%
• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 128
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,653 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$216 /mo · $2,597/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $89

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,540

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4522 Ridge Dr Forest Park, GA	3.0	2.0	1176	$1,450	$1.23	43d	1	0.32mi
4791 Tuong Yen Ct Forest Park, GA	3.0	2.0	1584	$1,885	$1.19	43d	1	0.44mi
4711 Waldrop Dr Unit W-L05 Forest Park, GA	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,295	$1.18	43d	1	0.44mi
4522 Ridge Dr Forest Park, GA	3.0	2.0	1176	$1,450	$1.23	4d	1	0.45mi
1131 Stoneybrook Rd Forest Park, GA	3.0	1.0	1053	$3,400	$3.23	43d	1	0.60mi
4404 Currie Ct Forest Park, GA	3.0	2.0	1188	$1,595	$1.34	43d	1	0.79mi
63 Werner Brook Way SW Atlanta, GA	4.0	3.5	1946	$2,700	$1.39	24d	1	0.83mi
729 Blueridge Dr Forest Park, GA	3.0	1.0	1150	$1,505	$1.31	5d	1	0.92mi
575 Springwood Dr Forest Park, GA	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,550	$1.41	43d	1	0.97mi
4309 Gilbert Pl Forest Park, GA	4.0	2.0	1660	$1,981	$1.19	4d	1	0.97mi
433 North Ave Unit 433 Forest Park, GA	3.0	2.5	1694	$1,995	$1.18	4d	1	1.08mi
4241 Hendrix Dr Forest Park, GA	2.0	1.5	1050	$1,224	$1.17	1d	5	1.22mi
1216 Sanders Way Morrow, GA	3.0	1.5	1110	$1,550	$1.40	24d	1	1.38mi
1540 Greenwillow Dr Conley, GA	4.0	2.0	1564	$1,895	$1.21	24d	1	1.40mi
351 Kate Dr Forest Park, GA	3.0	2.5	1415	$1,524	$1.08	11d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on marketlisting id $165,000 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-02-19
   price $159,900 336-char remark

   Show marketing remark (336 chars)

   EXTREMELY NICE THREE-LEVEL TOWNHOME NEAR EXPRESSWAY SYSTEMS, HARTSFIELD/JACKSON AIRPORT, CLAYTON STATE UNIVERSITY, SOUTHERN REGIONAL HOSPITAL, AND SHOPPING. EASY ACCESS TO DOWNTOWN ATLANTA. 3 BEDROOMS AND 2.5 BATHS, this property is poised to cater to your every need. Don't miss the opportunity to make this incredible house your home!

7. 2026-02-19
   price $159,900 336-char remark

   Show marketing remark (336 chars)

   EXTREMELY NICE THREE-LEVEL TOWNHOME NEAR EXPRESSWAY SYSTEMS, HARTSFIELD/JACKSON AIRPORT, CLAYTON STATE UNIVERSITY, SOUTHERN REGIONAL HOSPITAL, AND SHOPPING. EASY ACCESS TO DOWNTOWN ATLANTA. 3 BEDROOMS AND 2.5 BATHS, this property is poised to cater to your every need. Don't miss the opportunity to make this incredible house your home!

8. 2026-01-16
   price $179,900 336-char remark

   Show marketing remark (336 chars)

   EXTREMELY NICE THREE-LEVEL TOWNHOME NEAR EXPRESSWAY SYSTEMS, HARTSFIELD/JACKSON AIRPORT, CLAYTON STATE UNIVERSITY, SOUTHERN REGIONAL HOSPITAL, AND SHOPPING. EASY ACCESS TO DOWNTOWN ATLANTA. 3 BEDROOMS AND 2.5 BATHS, this property is poised to cater to your every need. Don't miss the opportunity to make this incredible house your home!

9. 2026-01-16
   price $179,900 336-char remark

   Show marketing remark (336 chars)

   EXTREMELY NICE THREE-LEVEL TOWNHOME NEAR EXPRESSWAY SYSTEMS, HARTSFIELD/JACKSON AIRPORT, CLAYTON STATE UNIVERSITY, SOUTHERN REGIONAL HOSPITAL, AND SHOPPING. EASY ACCESS TO DOWNTOWN ATLANTA. 3 BEDROOMS AND 2.5 BATHS, this property is poised to cater to your every need. Don't miss the opportunity to make this incredible house your home!

10. 2025-11-13
    listed $185,000 New 336-char remark

    Show marketing remark (336 chars)

    EXTREMELY NICE THREE-LEVEL TOWNHOME NEAR EXPRESSWAY SYSTEMS, HARTSFIELD/JACKSON AIRPORT, CLAYTON STATE UNIVERSITY, SOUTHERN REGIONAL HOSPITAL, AND SHOPPING. EASY ACCESS TO DOWNTOWN ATLANTA. 3 BEDROOMS AND 2.5 BATHS, this property is poised to cater to your every need. Don't miss the opportunity to make this incredible house your home!

11. 2025-11-13
    listed $185,000 Active 336-char remark

    Show marketing remark (336 chars)

    EXTREMELY NICE THREE-LEVEL TOWNHOME NEAR EXPRESSWAY SYSTEMS, HARTSFIELD/JACKSON AIRPORT, CLAYTON STATE UNIVERSITY, SOUTHERN REGIONAL HOSPITAL, AND SHOPPING. EASY ACCESS TO DOWNTOWN ATLANTA. 3 BEDROOMS AND 2.5 BATHS, this property is poised to cater to your every need. Don't miss the opportunity to make this incredible house your home!

12. 2025-06-21
    historical $1,495
13. 2025-06-13
    listed $1,495
14. 2025-06-12
    historical $1,495
15. 2025-05-06
    price $1,495
16. 2025-04-08
    price $1,595
17. 2025-03-12
    listed $1,695
18. 2025-03-12
    historical $1,750
19. 2025-03-06
    historical $1,750
20. 2025-03-06
    listed $1,750
21. 2025-03-06
    listed $1,750

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,597 · $216/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,597 · $216/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 98% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,831
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,597
• − Insurance: −$1,622
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,586
• − Management: −$1,586
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$1,604
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$385
• After-tax cash flow: $1,449/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clayton County
• NCES district ID: 1301230
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $42,266
• Composite: 13.41/100
• National rank: #9527
• State rank: #155 of 174 in GA

Livability — Forest Park

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #209
• US rank: #12698

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Forest Park, GA
• County: Clayton County · 230,153 people
• City population: 29,210
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 29,210
• Household income: $45,124
• Rent vs Own: 61.8% rent · 38.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1359.0

Population outlook (Clayton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 310,777 people
• By 2030: 329,762 · +6.1%
• By 2040: 368,052 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 401,196 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 472,488 · +52.0%
• By 2100: 500,446 · +61.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 52% Hispanic / Latino 27% White 10% Two or more races 10% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 26% Vietnamese 5% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clayton

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+69.2) · D 84.3% · R 15.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.8pp toward D · 2008: 66.4pp · 2024: 69.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+69.2 2020: D+70.9 2016: D+71.9 2012: D+70.1 2008: D+66.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -96.04%
• Current HPI: 229.5016
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.96%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+9037.1% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $159,900 GAMLS
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $159,900 FMLS
• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $179,900 GAMLS
• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $179,900 FMLS
• 2025-11-13 Listed $185,000 FMLS
• 2025-11-13 Listed $185,000 GAMLS
• 2025-06-21 Rental Removed $1,495 APPFOLIO
• 2025-06-13 Listed for Rent $1,495 APPFOLIO
• 2025-06-12 Rental Removed $1,495 GAMLS
• 2025-05-06 Price Changed $1,495 GAMLS
• 2025-04-08 Price Changed $1,595 GAMLS
• 2025-03-12 Listed for Rent $1,695 GAMLS
• 2025-03-12 Rental Removed $1,750 GAMLS
• 2025-03-06 Rental Removed $1,750 FMLS
• 2025-03-06 Listed for Rent $1,750 FMLS
• 2025-03-06 Listed for Rent $1,750 GAMLS

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,597 · +14.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.