3430 Canterbury Cir · Saw Creek, PA 18302

$279,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 988 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1985 1.09 ac lot $283/sqft · 45% above area Est $323k · 13% under $23/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.6/15.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tucked away at the end of a QUIET CUL-DE-SAC, this charming Ranch sits on a PRIVATE 1-ACRE wooded lot & feels like your own peaceful retreat from the moment you arrive. Lovingly cared for by its original owner, there's a warmth here you can truly feel. Whether you're looking for a full-time home or the perfect getaway, the location couldn't be better, just mins to the Delaware Water Gap & about 90mins to NYC for an easy escape whenever you need it. This home features a bright Living Room w/ cathedral ceilings, skylight, & a FLOOR-TO-CEILING BRICK FIREPLACE that creates a warm, inviting feel. The Eat-in Kitchen offers great cabinet/counter space w/ sliders to a SCREENED PORCH & WRAPAROUND DECK, perfect for relaxing in nature. All 3bds are on the main level, including the Primary Suite w/ double closets, private bath, & its OWN BALCONY where you can take in the PEACEFUL SETTING. The FINISHED LL is made for making memories, featuring a game room w/ DRY BAR, laundry/utility room & 1-car garage. Being sold TURNKEY W/ FURNITURE, game tables, tools & contents. Roof & skylights under 10 years old, this is an incredible opportunity to own a home that's not just a place to live, but A PLACE TO TRULY UNWIND.

Key facts

• Dry bar
• Screened porch
• Wraparound deck

Tags

• PRIVATE 1-ACRE WOODED LOT
• SCREENED PORCH
• WRAPAROUND DECK
• FINISHED LOWER LEVEL
• GAME ROOM
• DRY BAR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-300 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $227k (18.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (26.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $206k (26.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,538 in PA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D, schools F.
• East Stroudsburg Area SD (rural): math 25% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #413 of 539 in PA (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 271 active listings in the ZIP; 278 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (52 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $206,338 (26.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.59%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $323,479
• List price: $279,900
• Delta: -13.47%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1329 Main Rd	0.42mi	3/1.0	960 (-3%)	4mo	$255,900	$267	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-64,417
• Equity at exit: $41,734

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-80,558
• Equity at exit: $24,201

Cash invested: $78,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18302

• Home prices YoY: -20.6%
• Active inventory: 271
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,063 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$322 /mo · $3,868/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$23
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$433
• Net cashflow: $-300

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,443

Max offer price $226,953

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,975
• Closing costs: $8,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $23 · $276/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-05-16
   status Pending 1262-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1262 chars)

   Tucked away at the end of a QUIET CUL-DE-SAC, this charming Ranch sits on a PRIVATE 1-ACRE wooded lot & feels like your own peaceful retreat from the moment you arrive. Lovingly cared for by its original owner, there's a warmth here you can truly feel. Whether you're looking for a full-time home or the perfect getaway, the location couldn't be better, just mins to the Delaware Water Gap & about 90mins to NYC for an easy escape whenever you need it. This home features a bright Living Room w/ cathedral ceilings, skylight, & a FLOOR-TO-CEILING BRICK FIREPLACE that creates a warm, inviting feel. The Eat-in Kitchen offers great cabinet/counter space w/ sliders to a SCREENED PORCH & WRAPAROUND DECK, perfect for relaxing in nature. All 3bds are on the main level, including the Primary Suite w/ double closets, private bath, & its OWN BALCONY where you can take in the PEACEFUL SETTING. The FINISHED LL is made for making memories, featuring a game room w/ DRY BAR, laundry/utility room & 1-car garage. Being sold TURNKEY W/ FURNITURE, game tables, tools & contents. Roof & skylights under 10 years old, this is an incredible opportunity to own a home that's not just a place to live, but A PLACE TO TRULY UNWIND.

2. 2026-04-21
   listed $279,900 Active 1262-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1262 chars)

   Tucked away at the end of a QUIET CUL-DE-SAC, this charming Ranch sits on a PRIVATE 1-ACRE wooded lot & feels like your own peaceful retreat from the moment you arrive. Lovingly cared for by its original owner, there's a warmth here you can truly feel. Whether you're looking for a full-time home or the perfect getaway, the location couldn't be better, just mins to the Delaware Water Gap & about 90mins to NYC for an easy escape whenever you need it. This home features a bright Living Room w/ cathedral ceilings, skylight, & a FLOOR-TO-CEILING BRICK FIREPLACE that creates a warm, inviting feel. The Eat-in Kitchen offers great cabinet/counter space w/ sliders to a SCREENED PORCH & WRAPAROUND DECK, perfect for relaxing in nature. All 3bds are on the main level, including the Primary Suite w/ double closets, private bath, & its OWN BALCONY where you can take in the PEACEFUL SETTING. The FINISHED LL is made for making memories, featuring a game room w/ DRY BAR, laundry/utility room & 1-car garage. Being sold TURNKEY W/ FURNITURE, game tables, tools & contents. Roof & skylights under 10 years old, this is an incredible opportunity to own a home that's not just a place to live, but A PLACE TO TRULY UNWIND.

3. 2026-01-01
   historical
4. 2025-12-31
   historical
5. 2025-10-31
   status Active
6. 2025-10-31
   status Active
7. 2025-10-31
   status Active
8. 2025-10-28
   status Pending
9. 2025-10-28
   status Pending
10. 2025-10-28
    status Pending
11. 2025-09-26
    price $279,900
12. 2025-09-26
    price $279,900
13. 2025-09-26
    price $279,900
14. 2025-08-04
    price $285,000
15. 2025-08-04
    price $285,000
16. 2025-08-02
    price $285,000
17. 2025-06-12
    price $294,900
18. 2025-06-12
    price $294,900
19. 2025-06-07
    price $294,900
20. 2025-04-08
    listed $299,900 Active
21. 2025-04-08
    listed $299,900 Active
22. 2025-04-07
    listed $299,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,868 · $322/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,145 · $345/mo
• Expected delta: +$277/yr (+$23/mo · 7.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,761
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,679
• − Property taxes: −$3,868
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,981
• − Management: −$1,981
• − HOA: −$276
• − Depreciation: −$8,143
• Taxable loss: −$8,566
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,056
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,541/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Stroudsburg Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4208670
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $57,142
• Composite: 30.13/100
• National rank: #6332
• State rank: #413 of 539 in PA

Livability — Saw Creek

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1538
• US rank: #20241

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 17,593

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,099 people
• By 2030: 161,412 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 154,616 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 146,710 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 140,830 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 138,472 · -15.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 24% Black 17% Two or more races 12% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 8% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.1% · R 49.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.1pp toward R · 2008: 16.3pp · 2024: -0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.8 2020: D+6.4 2016: D+0.3 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+16.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -41.00%
• Current HPI: 157.9833
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-6.7% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Pending — PMAR
• 2026-04-21 Listed $279,900 PMAR
• 2026-01-01 Listing Removed — GLVRMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-31 Relisted — PMAR
• 2025-10-31 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-31 Relisted — GLVRMLS
• 2025-10-28 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-28 Pending — PMAR
• 2025-10-28 Pending — GLVRMLS
• 2025-09-26 Price Changed $279,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-26 Price Changed $279,900 PMAR
• 2025-09-26 Price Changed $279,900 GLVRMLS
• 2025-08-04 Price Changed $285,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-08-04 Price Changed $285,000 GLVRMLS
• 2025-08-02 Price Changed $285,000 PMAR
• 2025-06-12 Price Changed $294,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-06-12 Price Changed $294,900 GLVRMLS
• 2025-06-07 Price Changed $294,900 PMAR
• 2025-04-08 Listed $299,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-04-08 Listed $299,900 GLVRMLS
• 2025-04-07 Listed $299,900 PMAR

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,868 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.